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The mobilized tend to stay mobilized, they tend to mobilize others, and their actions may reframe what the elections are about.
Recent protests at U.S. universities have seized global attention. And now, with summer in full swing, a new protest wave is becoming visible on the horizon at the Republican and Democratic conventions in Milwaukee and Chicago. If those and other expected protests are as large as they’re anticipated to be, how will they affect the elections in November?
Among the many reasons activists organize protests is their desire to focus attention on a cause. Election seasons present opportunities for doing just that. Many people who otherwise do not tune in to policy debates begin to pay particular attention when the Oval Office is at stake.
At the same time, mainstream politicians and campaigns can be wary of election year street protests. Politicians, of course, generally want to avoid becoming the target of protests. More importantly, political operatives dislike volatility. They worry that protests will backfire and their candidate will be blamed for any disturbances of the peace.
Empirical research suggests that those relying on support from aggrieved groups may find it helpful to emphasize nonviolence, but that discouraging protest, in general, may be counterproductive.
Political operatives also employ a “dollars or votes” calculus that tells them not to let energy be wasted on things presumed not to deliver campaign donations or Election Day votes. For these reasons and others, the major parties sometimes pressure the officers of nonprofit organizations, unions, and activists to demobilize protest movements in election years.
Yet while it turns out that street protests do tend to influence elections, they more often do so in unexpected ways.
A 2021 study by John Holbein, Kei Kawashima-Ginsberg, and Tova Wang examined Black Lives Matter, climate, and gun control protests, as well as protests for and against former U.S. President Donald Trump from 2017 to 2020. Their national study found that counties with more frequent and larger protests tended to see significantly increased registration and turnout among young voters, voters of color, and Democrats.
Taking a longer view, Daniel Gillion and Sarah Soule studied congressional elections over four decades from the 1960s to the 1990s. They concluded that liberal protests tended to benefit left-of-center candidates and that conservative protests tended to benefit right-of-center candidates. A protest on their respective side sometimes led to as much as 6% more votes for a candidate, or 6% less for an opponent, depending on the race.
Why might this be? One answer seems to be that protests impact those motivated to vote and those turned off from politics around election time. Street protests spill over into the polling place. Voting is a relatively low-cost activity compared to joining protests.
Another, perhaps more powerful, effect of street protests has to do with how they change the way people think about what’s at stake. Social scientists have long understood that human beings navigate our world by excluding excess information and by focusing on what really matters. By drawing attention to particular issues, protests can prompt large numbers of people to reconsider what the elections mean to them.
A study of Black civil rights movement protests of the 1960s shows how this kind of election year reframing can work. Omar Wasow found that nonviolent civil rights protests produced marked gains at the polls for liberal candidates, who benefited because people began to pay more attention than they would have otherwise to the question of equality. This was in part because nonviolent protesters were more likely to be portrayed sympathetically in the media. On the other hand, violent protests, which were likely to be described as “riots,” prompted people to think more in terms of a social order frame, benefiting conservative candidates.
This brings us to what might be the most unexpected insight about protests and elections. The protest waves of recent generations are often described as the acts of the alienated. Our own research shows that this is true, but only to a certain extent: Those who organize mass street protests are usually critical of the establishment and wary of being taken advantage of. This means people generally do not instigate protests in order to produce particular election results.
Nonetheless, protests impact elections. The mobilized tend to stay mobilized, they tend to mobilize others, and their actions may reframe what the elections are about. Indeed, longstanding research shows us that the kind of alienation expressed in protest more often leads not to disengagement, but to greater immediate and long-term political involvement.
This is an election year in which protests will continue to occur. At best, the major political parties may be able to influence what protesters do. Empirical research suggests that those relying on support from aggrieved groups may find it helpful to emphasize nonviolence, but that discouraging protest, in general, may be counterproductive. The protests of the excluded and alienated will count on and beyond Election Day.
After all, in this contentious moment, the relative momentum of movements is likely to matter not only in voter turnout but also in the potentially tumultuous events that may follow November 5.
"When the history of this is written, it will document how some stood against these war crimes," said one critic. "And how others supported, protected, and abetted them."
Tens of thousands of people took to the streets in Paris late Monday to condemn Israel's bombing of a tent encampment in Rafah overnight Sunday that killed at least 45 people and wounded hundreds of others in what has been alternately described as a "mass atrocity," "horrific massacre," and "war crime."
Demanding French leaders and other European nations decisively end their military and political support for the Israeli assault on Gaza, the demonstrators gathered near the Israeli embassy, chanting slogans that included: "Free Gaza!"; "Gaza, Paris is with you!"; and "We are all Gaza children!"
Gaza health officials reported Monday that a majority of those killed in the encampment in Rafah's Tal al-Sultan were women and children.
Footage that emerged of the attack showed charred corpses and, in one clip, what appeared to be a man carrying the body of a small child who had been beheaded.
The Paris demonstration was organized by the Association France-Palestine Solidarity group, with protesters calling on the French government to demand accountability for the Rafah assault.
French President Emmanuel Macron said Monday he was "outraged" by the attack and called for "full respect for international law and an immediate cease-fire," but organizer François Rippe toldThe Times of Israel that greater action is needed from the French government.
"They start a fire in a camp for displaced, they burn people and we don't even summon the Israeli ambassador to ask for an account. It is just not acceptable," said Rippe.
Paris has supplied Israel with intelligence and military aid since it began its assault on Gaza in October, which has killed more than 36,000 Palestinians—the majority of whom have been civilian men, women, and children. The carnage of innocent people has continued despite repeated Israeli claims that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) only targets Hamas fighters and is taking all necessary steps to protect civilians.
Anadolu Agencyreported Tuesday that Paris police fired tear gas shells at protesters who attempted to proceed toward the Israeli embassy.
"We participate in this march, which is scheduled to reach the Israeli embassy to confirm and loudly say that we are all against what happened in Rafah," Carlos Martens Bilongo, a member of the French National Assembly, told Anadolu. "Burning the tents of the displaced Palestinians is unacceptable, and France must move more politically to cease-fire in Gaza."
As protesters marched in Paris as well as in other European cities including Madrid and Barcelona, Irish Foreign Minister Micheál Martin told reporters after attending a European Union Foreign Affairs Council meeting that there "was a very clear consensus about the need to uphold the international humanitarian legal institutions" and that officials had for the first time engaged in "significant" discussions about possible sanctions on Israel.
Martin noted that the foreign ministers had discussed sanctions if Israel does not comply with the International Court of Justice's latest ruling, in which the court ordered Israel to halt its military operation in Rafah.
"There was a strong discussion on the provisional orders of the International Court of Justice," Martin told reporters, adding that offiicals had "very clear views that Israel should adhere to those provisional orders to open the border crossing with Rafah and cease its military operations in Rafah."
"International humanitarian law, adherence to human rights, is the raison d’etre of the European Union and events now are really putting that issue into sharp focus, particularly given the attack last night when so many innocent people were killed," said Martin.
In the U.S., the Biden administration—the largest international funder of the IDF—said Monday that it was "assessing" whether Israel had crossed a "red line" by killing 45 displaced people. Biden has been the target of national and international outrage for continuing to support Israel despite mounting proof that the IDF is not protecting civilians and is operating with genocidal intent.
"When the history of this is written, it will document how some stood against these war crimes," said Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, as French protesters stood against the Rafah attack. "And how others supported, protected and abetted them. I am talking about you, Joe Biden."
"You will be remembered as the butcher of Gaza!" one demonstrator, later arrested, screamed at the U.S. secretary of state. Others stood up to call the nation's top diplomat a "war criminal."
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken was targeted with protests and denunciations repeatedly during a Senate hearing on Tuesday as multiple disruptions resulted in arrests—some of them unnecessarily violent, said witnesses—by Capitol Police.
Organized by CodePink and American Muslims for Palestine, the protests at the joint Senate Foreign Relations and Appropriations committee hearing rebuked Blinken over policy in Gaza, where the U.S. has continued to back Israel's military assault despite the more than 35,000 people killed over the last seven months, most of them civilian men, women, and children who had nothing to do with the Hamas-led attack on October 7 of last year.
Among those victims invoked by name at Tuesday's hearing was 6-year-old Hind Rajab, a Palestinian girl killed in January by Israeli Defense Forces in Gaza when the car she was in with her family was shelled by tank fire. While Rajab survived the initial blast, she later died in the vehicle as the IDF fired on those who came to rescue her. Surrounded by her dead family members for hours and pleading for help over a phone to be rescued, she did not survive.
"Hind Rajab was 6 years old when Israeli soldiers killed her!" shouted Mohamad Habehh, with American Muslims for Palestine, at Blinken sitting before the committee. "You will be remembered as the butcher of Gaza!"
"You will be remembered for murdering innocent Palestinians!" Habehh continued as he was wrestled out of the room and into the hallway by security. "Genocide is your legacy! Genocide is your legacy!"
✊🏼 Protestors disrupted @SecBlinken this morning in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on American diplomacy reminding him of his role in the #GazaGenocide and murder of Palestinian 6-year-old #HindRajab in Gaza.
🎥The Hill & Moataz Salim ✌🏼 pic.twitter.com/BtxezbNiEb
— American Muslims for Palestine (@AMPalestine) May 21, 2024
While some yelled and were removed for their disruptions, a large group sat or stood silently in the back of the hearing room with their arms raised, painted red to simulate blood-soaked hands.
Pro-Palestinian demonstrators with their hands painted the color of blood hold a demonstration to call for a ceasefire in Gaza as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken prepares to testify before the Senate committee. (Photo by Mostafa Bassim/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Olivia DiNucci, a CodePink activist who was arrested and, like Habeeh, later charged with resisting arrest, also disrupted the hearing as she called Blinken a "war criminal" who had the blood of "40,000 Palestinians on his hands."
NOW: @SecBlinken continues to be disrupted during his testimony to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
"Blinken is a war criminal! He is a war criminal! The blood of 40,000 Palestinians is on his hands!" pic.twitter.com/bmx0CTfkrJ
— CODEPINK (@codepink) May 21, 2024
In a statement, DiNucci explained how the U.S. government "has given billions to Israel, but our country urgently needs these funds for healthcare, housing, and addressing climate change." Blinken, President Joe Biden, and other elected leaders, she said "must end our complicity in this destruction and focus on building a just and equitable society at home."
During his testimony, Blinken said he disagreed with this week's decision by the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Karim Khan, who on Monday submitted application for arrest warrants for Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for "war crimes" and "crimes against humanity" in Gaza.
Police escort a pro-Palestinian protestor holding a banner that reads 'Arrest Blinken for War Crimes' out of the room during U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's testimony on May 21, 2024. (Photo by Mostafa Bassim/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Calling the move to obtain arrest warrants "totally wrongheaded," Blinken said during his testimony that it would only hamper efforts to free Israeli hostages taken by Hamas soldiers on October 7 and undermine negotiations to bring the assault on Gaza to an end. Blinken also indicated to lawmakers his willingness to help orchestrate some kind of sanctions against the ICC.
"We want to work with you on a bipartisan basis to find an appropriate response," said Blinken when asked about the potential for punitive measure against the ICC. "I'm committed to doing that."
Meanwhile, as Common Dreamsreported on Tuesday, international human rights in the wake of Khan's decision championed the move, with many echoing the standard that "no one is above the law."