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Economist Paul Krugman argued there is a "real case for an emergency cut soon" as concerns grow that the Fed has waited too long to act.
A steep global sell-off in financial markets on Monday and broader concerns about the health of the U.S. economy sparked calls for the Federal Reserve to take the rare step of enacting an emergency interest rate cut—something last done at the start of the coronavirus pandemic.
The calls came as the Fed and its chairman, Jerome Powell, faced mounting criticism for not reducing borrowing costs earlier despite slowing job and wage growth and overwhelming evidence that U.S. inflation has cooled dramatically from its 2022 peak.
Jeremy Siegel, an American economist and finance professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, said in an appearance on CNBC Monday morning that the Fed should "at minimum" implement an emergency 75-basis-point cut to interest rates followed by another cut of the same size at its scheduled September meeting.
The current federal funds rate—the target interest rate set by the Fed—is 5.25% to 5.50%. Siegel argued that the rate should be "somewhere between 3.5% and 4%," noting that inflation is nearly at the central bank's arbitrary 2% inflation target while the unemployment rate is rising.
"How much have we moved the fed funds rate? Zero," said Siegel. "That makes absolutely no sense whatsoever."
"I'm calling for a 75 basis point emergency cut in the Fed funds rate, with another 75 basis point cut indicated for next month at the September meeting - and that's minimum," says Wharton's Jeremy Siegel: pic.twitter.com/s4CgWx962Q
— Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC) August 5, 2024
Economist Paul Krugman also urged the Fed to act with an emergency rate cut, rejecting the counterargument that doing so could suggest policymakers are panicking.
"Even though I've been arguing for rate cuts—50 [basis points] in September for sure—I wasn't calling for an inter-meeting cut, because that might signal panic," Krugman wrote on social media. "But since we may be seeing a panic anyway, that argument loses its force. Real case for an emergency cut soon."
Monday's sell-off wiped $1 trillion off the market values of leading U.S. tech companies shortly after trading began, and Wall Street's "fear index" jumped to its highest level since 2020.
"Is this 1987 all over again?" asked a headline in The Wall Street Journal, referring to the infamous stock market crash known as "Black Monday." Reutersproclaimed that global markets were giving off "'Black Monday' vibes." The Financial Timesnoted that "Tokyo's Topix fell 12.2%, the sharpest sell-off since 'Black Monday' in October 1987 and more than erasing its gains for the year."
"The biggest concern here is they put us in a recessionary environment, and it's too late to course-correct."
U.S. lawmakers, economists, and progressive advocacy groups have been urging the chair of the world's most powerful central bank to cut interest rates for months, warning that keeping borrowing costs elevated for an extended period could do profound harm to workers as well as the broader U.S. and global economy. Higher rates have already taken a significant toll on lower-income Americans, in part due to rising interest payments and sky-high housing costs.
"Chair Powell, enough brinkmanship," the Groundwork Collaborative, a vocal advocate of rate cuts, wrote on social media Monday. "It's time to follow the data demanding rate cuts. It's time to put the American people first. It's time to cut interest rates now."
During its meeting last week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)—the Fed's policy-setting committee—opted to keep rates at a two-decade high for the 12th consecutive month, sparking allegations that Powell is succumbing to political pressure from Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and GOP lawmakers.
Powell said a rate cut is "on the table" for the September FOMC meeting but did not make any explicit commitments.
Two days after the Fed decided to keep the current federal funds rate in place—which came even as other nations' central banks moved to lower interest rates—the U.S. Labor Department released data showing that the country added far fewer jobs than expected in July and that the unemployment rate rose to its highest level in roughly three years.
The data amplified concerns that the Fed has waited too long to reduce borrowing costs.
"I worry that they are behind the eight ball here," Groundwork executive director Lindsay Owens said last week. "And with every passing FOMC meeting where they don't move to correct for being behind the eight ball, the risks accumulate and compound."
"The biggest concern here is they put us in a recessionary environment, and it's too late to course-correct," Owens added. "Much better to course-correct early than late, in my opinion."
For media outlets owned by the wealthy, there’s obvious utility in directing the conversation away from inequality and toward other concerns.
One of the defining features of contemporary U.S. capitalism is rampant inequality. Though there is some scholarly debate about its precise extent, even conservative estimates suggest a rise in income inequality of 16% since 1979 (as measured by the Gini coefficient). Moreover, of the 38 members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a group of mainly high-income countries, the U.S. currently ranks dismally as the sixth-most unequal.
In 2013, then–President Barack Obama described inequality, alongside a lack of upward mobility, as the “defining challenge of our time” (CBS, 12/4/13). This declaration spurred a brief moment of interest in inequality on cable news channels, which proved fleeting. During the two-month window of December 2013 through January 2014—Obama made his statement during a speech on December 4—the cable news channels Fox, CNN, and MSNBC aired about a tenth of the total mentions of the term “inequality” that they would air from the start of 2010 through the beginning of 2024, a 14-year period.
The rapid rise in inequality over recent decades might have been expected to generate a deep sense of alarm in news media. But on cable news, there’s little sign of distress.
Compare cable coverage of inequality to coverage of other economic topics, such as inflation, recession, and government debt. The following chart shows the number of mentions of various terms across Fox, CNN, and MSNBC over the course of 2023:
Can you make out the bottom bar? That depicts combined coverage of four terms: “income inequality,” “wealth inequality,” “class inequality,” and “economic inequality.” Those four together got less than 1% of the coverage of inflation during 2023.
The skew was evident but less extreme at text-based outlets. Searches of The New York Times archives for the year of 2023 deliver 1.5 times as many articles for “debt ceiling” as for “income inequality,” 2.5 times for “recession,” and seven times for “inflation.” Searches of The Washington Post archives for the same period return a more disproportionate 18 times for “debt ceiling,” 14 times for “recession,” and 34 times for “inflation.”
Note that, although inflation and a debt ceiling battle were both issues in 2023, there was no recession. The reason there was so much coverage of the topic was that economists overwhelmingly forecast a recession—and utterly whiffed—and media signal-boosted their inaccurate predictions. Fears of recession, a fantasy problem, consequently overshadowed discussion of the very real problem of inequality.
For media outlets owned by the wealthy, there’s obvious utility in directing the conversation away from inequality and toward other concerns. For instance, if the public’s attention can be directed toward a debt ceiling battle, corporate media outlets can hype fears about unsustainable deficits. In turn, the public can be primed to see government debt as a leading challenge, whether or not this actually makes much sense.
Public opinion data suggests that this has worked—53% of Americans see the federal budget deficit as a very big problem, whereas only 44% view economic inequality the same way.
Media hyper-fixation on inflation and a potential recession over the last couple years, meanwhile, has persistently distorted the economic evaluations of the general population, whose satisfaction with the economy remained at historically low levels last year amidst the strongest economic recovery in decades (FAIR.org, 1/5/24). In a recent poll, asked whether wage growth outpaced inflation over the past year, a full 90% of Americans said that it hadn’t, when in reality it had.
In each case, whether media are fearmongering about deficits, inflation, or a potential recession, they have been able to steer the conversation away from progressive policies and toward a more centrist approach.
At the heart of the issue is that news media don’t just structure conversations about inequality; inequality also structures the media.
Both The New York Times and The Washington Post, during last year’s debt ceiling battle, directed attention toward Social Security and Medicare, amplifying arguments for cutting these programs (FAIR.org, 5/17/23, 6/15/23). During the recent bout of inflation, both papers cheered on the Federal Reserve’s campaign to “cool” the labor market (read: reduce workers’ bargaining power) and potentially hike unemployment (FAIR.org, 1/25/23, 6/27/23).
Promotion of recession fears likewise functioned to sow doubts about the sweeping stimulus packages implemented in response to the pandemic, legislation that produced the most rapid recovery in decades and a substantial reduction in inequality. After all, if the inevitable result of an enhanced safety net is inflation and a downturn, why bother?
A focus on the fundamental issue of inequality, which has significantly exacerbated the effects of real but temporary issues like elevated inflation, would not serve these same ends. Rather, its likely effect would be to delegitimize centrist policies and point towards a more radical approach.
Consider these findings from a 2014 study: Asked what they view as an ideal pay ratio between CEOs and unskilled workers, Americans pointed to a ratio of 7-to-1. The real ratio at the time? 354-to-1. Meanwhile, Americans thought that the actual ratio was more like 30-to-1, about an order of magnitude off from reality.
There’s no way to get to Americans’ preferred level of equality without a massive redistribution of income. But is the public going to push for this sort of redistribution if media distract them from the topic, or if a lack of coverage results in them not even recognizing the extent of inequality in the first place?
At the heart of the issue is that news media don’t just structure conversations about inequality; inequality also structures the media. The dominant news outlets are major corporations owned by the wealthy. The flow of information is far from democratically controlled. Instead, a billionaire can pick winners among media outlets by, for instance, boosting the circulation of a staunchly centrist publication like The Washington Post.
Within prominent news outlets, journalists are drawn disproportionately from privileged backgrounds and top schools. They may come in with blinders about issues like inequality that are felt more viscerally by lower-income folks.
Even more worrisome is the personal advantage that on-screen personalities on top TV networks derive from ignoring inequality, which may explain why cable news is so much worse at covering inequality than a paper like The New York Times. Popular anchors at Fox, CNN, and MSNBC make millions of dollars a year, putting them easily in the top 1% of earners nationwide. Is it at all surprising when they opt for an obsession with the deficit over an interest in inequality?
What can be done about this state of affairs? Calls for journalists to do better may get us somewhere, but more fundamental change is needed. As scholars Faik Kurtulmus and Jan Kandiyali have argued, getting media to pay more attention to issues affecting working-class and poor people requires a different funding model, one where the upper class doesn’t hold all the power.
One option would be a voucher system in which
everyone would be provided with a publicly funded voucher, which they would then get to spend at a news outlet of their choice, with the revenue going to that news outlet… Coupled with a more representative and diverse pool of journalists, this could lead to a marked improvement in the media’s coverage of issues of poverty and inequality.
A complementary set of reforms are advocated by Thomas Piketty in his recent book A Brief History of Equality:
The best solution [to media concentration in the hands of the wealthy] would be to change the legal framework and adopt a law that truly democratizes the media, guaranteeing employees and journalists half the seats in the governing organs, whatever their legal form might be, opening the doors to representatives from the reading public, and drastically limiting stockholders’ power.
Ultimately, it’s going to take an attack on inequality within media to get media to take inequality seriously.
The macroeconomic situation today has confounded both those who called for interest rate hikes and those who warned against them.
Back in 2021 and early 2022, a posse of prominent economists—including Lawrence H. Summers, Jason Furman, and Kenneth Rogoff, all of Harvard—criticized the Biden administration’s fiscal and investment program, and pressured the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Their argument was that inflation, fueled by federal spending, would prove “persistent,” requiring a sustained shift to austerity. Unemployment, sadly, would have to rise to at least 6.5% for several years, according to one study touted by Furman.
While this trio (and many like-minded commentators) failed to sway the White House or Congress, they were in tune with Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues, who began hiking interest rates in early 2022 and have kept at it. The Fed’s rapid monetary-policy tightening soon prompted progressives, led by Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, to fear that it will trigger a recession, mass unemployment, and (though they didn’t say it) a Republican victory in 2024.
But the macroeconomic situation today has confounded both positions. Contrary to those advocating austerity, inflation peaked on its own in mid-2022 (owing partly to sales from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve). There was no persistence, no surge from the 2021 fiscal stimulus, and no wage-driven inflation from low unemployment. The models and historical precedents that the Harvard trio had relied on clearly no longer apply (if they ever did).
The “fiscal channel” for interest-rate payments is an inconvenient concept for those who wring their hands over the “burden” of public debt.
There also has been no recession, unemployment has not risen, and higher interest rates have not deterred business investment. Residential construction took a hit, but the construction sector overall soon shook that off, and the banking crisis earlier this year has not led to financial contagion. A recession remains possible, of course, but so far there are very few warning signs.
These happy circumstances have led some observers to congratulate Powell and the Fed on achieving a “soft landing.” But crediting the Fed is magical thinking. There is no way, under any theory or precedent, that rate hikes beginning in January 2022 could have knocked back inflation by July of the same year. Whatever its consequences down the road, the Fed’s policy tightening has been irrelevant to the inflation slowdown so far.
But why haven’t 18 months of rising interest rates had any perceptible effect on employment, investment, or growth? That is as much of a puzzle for progressives as the fall of inflation is for austerians—especially considering that the pandemic-driven boost to household savings has ended, and Congress has started cutting back modestly on various spending programs.
Part of the answer surely lies in new tax incentives for investment, notably in semiconductors and renewable energy. But those sectors are fairly small, and their growth will have accounted for perhaps a hundred thousand jobs. Another part of the answer may lie in direct investment by companies fleeing Europe’s industrial decline, itself a byproduct of sanctions against Russia. But, again, these numbers cannot be very large.
What else is going on? One factor, suggested to me by Robert Aliber, an emeritus professor of economics and international finance at the University of Chicago, is that the top quarter of U.S. households became cash-rich during the pandemic. These households represent the largest share of U.S. purchasing power, and their spending is largely immune to high interest rates.
Another suggestion comes from Warren Mosler—the godfather of Modern Monetary Theory—who notes that U.S. national debt has risen to nearly 130% of GDP, up from about 60% in the early 2000s. The net interest paid on that debt increased by 35% from 2021 to 2022—reaching 2% of GDP—and about 70% of those payments went to the U.S. private sector. If one adds the effect of interest paid (starting in 2008) on $3 trillion in bank reserves, the fiscal support through this channel has been substantial.
History supports Mosler’s conjecture. Back in 1981, U.S. federal debt was only about 30% of GDP, and much of it was in fixed-interest, long-term bonds, with no interest paid on bank reserves. As a result, then Fed Chair Paul Volcker’s shockingly large interest-rate increases mostly hit private debtors and business investment, and the offsetting fiscal boost from interest payments was small.
In contrast, when the federal debt exceeded 100% of GDP in 1946, almost all of it was in war bonds held by U.S. households. Despite yielding only 2% in interest, those bonds provided a boost to private incomes and a base for mortgage borrowing through the 1950s—a time of largely stable middle-class prosperity.
The “fiscal channel” for interest-rate payments is an inconvenient concept for those who wring their hands over the “burden” of public debt. It suggests that Powell’s rate hikes may bepowerless to slow GDP. Indeed, additional rate increases could even be expansionary, at least up to a point.
As in other extreme cases—like Argentina, where interest payments amount to a quarter or more of GDP—rate hikes will increase costs for businesses, pushing up prices, and also apply price pressures on fixed assets (land, minerals, oil) that will show up in our inflation measures. That, in turn, will discourage saving, spur borrowing, and impel the Fed to raise rates even more.
Over time, this process will lead toward economic chaos. But, if this narrative has merit and high interest rates don’t bring on the recession that the Fed so clearly desires, it will be difficult to change course. Ideology and habit can nurture the hope that doubling down on an ineffective policy will make it work.
What might stop this dynamic? One answer is severe fiscal austerity, with budget cuts used to provoke the recession that interest rates have failed to bring about. We are already seeing pressure for this option from Wall Street. Last week, Fitch downgraded its credit rating on U.S. sovereign debt, in a move clearly timed to scare Congress as its budget deadlines approach. Such a policy shift, if it is strong enough, would complete the ongoing obliteration of the American middle class.
Obviously, it would be better to do the opposite—to empower the middle class and disempower the bankers. That would means cutting interest rates while regulating new credit flows, controlling strategic prices, and strengthening fiscal support for household incomes and well-paying jobs. People with decent and secure incomes can reduce their reliance on unstable loans.
That is what we ought to do. But don’t hold your breath.