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A meaningful end to the war can only take place when all Yemenis who fought on either side of the war face one another in direct talks and draft a way forward without the financial and military backing of foreign governments.
A delegation from Saudi Arabia has arrived in Yemen's capital Sana'a alongside Omani negotiators with the aim of reaching a resolution to the protracted war in Yemen. This marks a major turning point in a conflict that began more than eight years ago and has been characterized as a stalemate between Yemen's Houthis and a coalition of anti-Houthi forces backed and led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
This arguably unexpected turn of events—surprising given Saudi Arabia's yearslong war against a group they characterize as "Iran-allied rebels"—is the result of talks that began in early 2022 between the Saudi Arabian government and Yemen's government in Sanaa, led by Ansar Allah—also known as the Houthis. The Houthis have in effect been ruling much of northern Yemen for the past eight years.
This is "the closest Yemen has been to real progress towards lasting peace," Hans Grundberg, the United Nations envoy to Yemen, remarked.
This is "the closest Yemen has been to real progress towards lasting peace," Hans Grundberg, the United Nations envoy to Yemen, remarked to the Associated Press earlier this month. Grundberg urged both parties to "start an inclusive political process under U.N.auspices to sustainably end the conflict."
While the terms of any settlement have yet to be made public, this moment signals the seriousness of the talks and the likelihood of a lasting political agreement among warring parties following years of asymmetrical warfare in which hundreds of thousands of Yemenis were killed, millions more were starved, and Yemen was virtually left in ruins.
War and Famine
In the aftermath of the 2011 Arab Spring, peaceful countrywide protests began in Yemen that eventually ended with Yemen's longtime dictator, President Ali Abdullah Saleh, transferring power to his then-Vice President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi in 2011.
In the following years, Hadi clinged to power after failing to address the demands of all of the country's various factions. Meanwhile, Ansar Allah rose to power following protests against the government's curbing of fuel subsidies, and eventually seized the capital Sanaa in late 2014, and forced Hadi into house arrest.
Despite these tumultuous events, a U.N.-negotiated settlement was reached between Hadi, the Houthis, and other factions, but this settlement was derailed. Soon after the new Saudi king appointed his son, Mohammed bin Salman, as deputy crown prince and defense minister in early 2015, Saudi Arabia amassed a coalition of several neighboring countries and, together with Western support—primarily from the Obama administration—launched airstrikes against the Houthis and imposed a naval blockade targeting food, medicine, fuel, and other essential supplies in an effort to reinstate Hadi as the main head of the government. This was ratified in U.N. resolution 2216, which provided cover for these attacks and the imposition of the blockade under the guise of an "arms embargo."
Meanwhile, Hadi fled to Riyadh and continued to enjoy Saudi support for years to come, while the UAE trained and funded the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a separatist group whose stated goals are to secede from the Yemeni union.
Despite full military support from the United States and other allies, including weapon sales, intelligence, logistics, training, targeting support, and, until late 2018, mid-air refueling, the Saudi-led coalition failed to capture Yemen's most populous region from the Houthis. The Houthis, on the other hand, joined forces with their longtime enemy, former president Saleh, and formed a government and armed resistance to the Saudi-led coalition.
With more than 17 million people facing food insecurity in 2022, the U.N. warned that "catastrophic" and "famine-like" conditions were projected to increase fivefold for those most vulnerable.
Even after their fallout and subsequent killing of Saleh in December 2017 after he switched to the Saudi coalition's side, the Houthis continued to control much of the pre-1990 unity north Yemen, where 70% to 80% of the population resides. However, the Houthis' attempts to capture Marib, a key oil- and gas-rich province, failed.
As the fighting continued and the blockade on Yemen was tightened, the Yemeni population faced a crumbling economy and destruction of its healthcare systems. This led to outbreaks such as cholera and diphtheria, reduced functional healthcare facilities to 50%, and left more than 80% of Yemenis in need of food, water, and medicine. With more than 17 million people facing food insecurity in 2022, the U.N. warned that "catastrophic" and "famine-like" conditions were projected to increase fivefold for those most vulnerable.
Previous Talks
In early 2022, after a series of Saudi-led attacks that killed at least 80 civilians and shut down Yemen's internet for four days, and Houthi attacks that reached an oil facility in Jeddah and a storage facility in Abu Dhabi, warring parties began ceasefire talks in Oman.
Though far from being the first peace—a ceasefire agreement was reached in April 2022, and extended twice until October of that year—they brought a halt to U.S.-supported airstrikes for the first time since March 2015.
Despite the U.S. and Saudi's insistence that this war was waged on behalf of Hadi—Yemen's "legitimate" head of government—he was virtually powerless and remained in Riyadh since leaving Yemen in 2015. This facade came down when the Saudi and UAE governments set aside Hadi and replaced him with a council of eight men, all of whom were backed by Saudi Arabia or the UAE. While the council was formed to unify anti-Houthi groups given that most had already waged battles against the Houthis, their conflicting interests soon led to in-fighting, especially in Shabwa where UAE-backed STC forces fought Saudi-backed Islah forces.
Peace Now?
In the year since the first ceasefire was achieved in 2022, fighting on the ground continued in key southern areas including Shabwa and al-Mahra. And when Houthi demands to pay government workers their long overdue salaries using oil and gas revenues were not met, they responded by attacking oil facilities to prevent the export of oil and gas.
Now, this key condition seems to have been met in a draft deal last month, and reports of a roadmap toward peace include issuing payments to government employees using gas and oil revenues in exchange for the Houthis allowing exports to take place.
But to achieve a lasting peace deal, Yemen's sovereignty must be restored and the blockade must be fully lifted.
But to achieve a lasting peace deal, Yemen's sovereignty must be restored and the blockade must be fully lifted. While talks with Saudi Arabia are a major first step toward alleviating Yemenis' suffering, the UAE must also give up control over strategic areas such as Bab al-Mandab strait and the island of Socotra, which they occupied and recently militarized.
The coalition's failure to consolidate power among warring groups in southern Yemen, which they have controlled since 2015, underscores the importance of ceasing all foreign intervention and financial backing of warring factions. This includes the U.S.'s role, which has been instrumental in furthering the war over the past eight years despite legislative efforts to end this unconstitutional involvement.
While the meetings in Sanaa between Saudi and Houthi officials hold promise for peace with the Saudi-led coalition, a meaningful end to the war can only take place when all Yemenis who fought on either side of the war—the Houthis, Saleh, and Hadi's General People's Congress, the Islah party, the STC, and others—face one another in direct talks and draft a way forward without the financial and military backing of foreign governments. When overt and covert foreign interventions cease, Yemen will finally have a chance to chart its own course.
A Saudi-led aerial bombing campaign has entered its second day in Yemen. The Saudi-led airstrikes are intended to thwart the advance of Shiite Houthi rebels after they seized control of the capital Sana'a last year and deposed President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi last month. On Thursday, Hadi left his refuge in Aden for Saudi Arabia. At least 39 civilians have reportedly been killed so far in the airstrikes. Amnesty International reports the dead include at least six children under the age of 10. Saudi's bombing campaign has been backed by the United States, Gulf states, Egypt, Turkey, Pakistan and Sudan. We go to Sana'a to speak with Farea Al-Muslimi, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Middle East Center. He recently tweeted: "I'm a 25 year old Yemeni man. I've seen at least 15 wars in my country. I don't need more. I need some help and education & economy; not guns."
Updated (8:11 PM EST): Saudi Arabia and Gulf allies launch airstrikes inside Yemen, says Saudi ambassador to the United States
Adel al-Jubeir, Saudi Arabia's Ambassador to the United States, confirmed in a press briefing on Wednesday night that the Saudi military, along with regional allies, has begun airstrikes against targets in Yemen. Reports from the ground in the capital city of Sanaa confirm that a wide-scale bombing operation was currently underway with explosions rattling buildings across the city.
Al-Jubier said the bombing campaign was designed to protect what he described as the "legitimate government" of Yemen from rebel forces.
"We have air assets from a number of countries in the [Saudi] kingdom and we have military assets that are on their way to the kingdom to participate in these operations," Jubeir said.
A U.S. official who asked not be named toldReuters that the United States was providing support to Saudi Arabia as it carries out its operation, but gave no details.
The New York Timesreports:
Saudi Arabia announced on Wednesday night that it had begun military operations in Yemen, launching airstrikes in coordination with a coalition of 10 nations.
The strikes came as Yemen was hurtling closer to civil war after months of turmoil, as fighters and army units allied with the Houthi movement threatened to overrun the southern port of Aden, where the besieged president, Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi, has gone into hiding.
Yemen shares a long border with Saudi Arabia, a major American ally, and the Saudis had been reported to be massing forces on the Yemen frontier as Mr. Mansour's last redoubt in Aden looked increasingly imperiled.
Live-tweeting in response to the development of the bombing of capital city of Sanaa by Saudi and allied forces, Yemeni human rights activist Farea Al-Muslimi expressed horror and critical dismayat the unfolding situation:
\u201c#breaking : huge explosions in Sanaa Saudi jets launching air strikes . My goodness . The worst is coming . #lord\u201d— Farea Al-Muslimi (@Farea Al-Muslimi) 1427326928
\u201cContinues heavy air strikes and counter strikes from all around Sanaa . My god . Hell is on the door. #yemen\u201d— Farea Al-Muslimi (@Farea Al-Muslimi) 1427327708
\u201cThe worst is to come ; military intervention in #Yemen is never going to bring peace .\u201d— Farea Al-Muslimi (@Farea Al-Muslimi) 1427327000
\u201cI sadly can promise you that the sir strikes cost tonight could have saved Yemen from this years ago if if was put into its economy. #yemen\u201d— Farea Al-Muslimi (@Farea Al-Muslimi) 1427328894
\u201cThere isn't a single direction I don't hear bombings from its side . \n#yemen #sanaa\u201d— Farea Al-Muslimi (@Farea Al-Muslimi) 1427328960
Amid the complex and fast-moving situation in Yemen, this curated Twitter feed by Common Dreams hopes to serve as a source of quality updates and trusted perspectives:
Updated (4:23 PM EST):Yemen's embattled president may have fled stronghold in southern city of Aden as 'all-out civil war' all but officially declared
Reutersreports:
Houthi militia forces in Yemen backed by allied army units seized an air base on Wednesday and appeared close to capturing the southern port of Aden from defenders loyal to President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, residents said.
The United States said that Hadi, who has been holed up in Aden since fleeing the Houthi-controlled capital Sanaa last month, was no longer at his residence. It offered no other details on his movements.
After taking al-Anad air base, the Houthis and their military allies, supported by heavy armor, advanced to within 20 km (12 miles) of Aden.
Soldiers at Aden's Jabal al-Hadeed barracks fired into the air to prevent residents from entering the base and arming themselves, witnesses said, suggesting that Hadi's control over the city was fraying.
Houthi fighters and allied military units had advanced to Dar Saad, a village a half-hour's drive from central Aden, residents there said.
Earlier, unidentified warplanes fired missiles at the Aden neighborhood where Hadi's compound is located, residents said. Anti-aircraft batteries opened fire on the planes.
According to the Guardian's Kareem Shaheem:
Yemen has edged closer to all-out civil war as Shia Houthi rebels seized a key military base in the southern port city of Aden and reports suggested that President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi had fled the country.
Rebels seized al-Anad airbase, which lies between Taiz - Yemen's third-largest city, which fell under rebel control last week - and Hadi's stronghold of Aden, in a renewed push for control of the country's south.
The Washington Postadds:
On a broader level, Yemen represents a potential proxy battlefield for the wider regional rivalries between Shiite power Iran and the Gulf Arab states backed by Washington, which had counted on Hadi as a partner in coordinating drone strikes against al-Qaeda.
Amid the widening chaos, Hadi's whereabouts remained unclear.
Senior security officials told The Washington Post that Hadi had left his stronghold in Aden, where his government sought a foothold after being driven from the capital, Sanaa, by the Houthis.
Looters soon swarmed the presidential buildings, and fighting flared on several fronts on the edge of the city, said Anis Mansour, editor of the port city's Huna Aden newspaper.
Earlier (7:45 AM EST):
As Houthi forces in Yemen reached the port city of Aden on Wednesday amid conflicting information of the whereabouts of embattled President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi, separate reporting indicated that Saudi Arabia is mobilizing its military forces along its southern border--fulfilling predictions of a total breakdown of peace efforts and stoking fears for a wider and more protracted conflict.
Alarms have been ringing this week that the breakdown of peace talks between the government of President Hadi--which has received backing and patronage from the U.S. and Saudi Arabia--and the Shi'ite factions from the north, backed by Yemen's former President Ali Abdullah Saleh and thought to be receiving at least tacit support from Iran, could lead to a full-scale war inside the country. On Sunday, UN special envoy to Yemen declared that continued fighting and the inability to bring a complex array of Yemeni factions to the table was pushing the impoverished nation to the "edge of civil war".
According to reporting by Reuters late Tuesday, citing U.S. officials familiar with the developments, Saudi Arabia was "moving heavy military equipment including artillery to areas near its border with Yemen," a move seen as raising the risk that the Sunni monarchy and powerful U.S. ally--also the region's wealthiest and most heavily-armed country--could soon enter the worsening Yemeni conflict.
Reutersreports:
The [Saudi] buildup follows a southward advance by Iranian-backed Houthi Shi'ite militants who took control of the capital Sanaa in September and seized the central city of Taiz at the weekend as they move closer to the new southern base of U.S.-supported President Hadi.
The slide toward war in Yemen has made the country a crucial front in Saudi Arabia's region-wide rivalry with Iran, which Riyadh accuses of sowing sectarian strife through its support for the Houthis.
The conflict risks spiraling into a proxy war with Shi'ite Iran backing the Houthis, whose leaders adhere to the Zaydi sect of Shi'ite Islam, and Saudi Arabia and the other regional Sunni Muslim monarchies backing Hadi.
On Wednesday morning, Al-Jazeera reports information suggesting Hadi and his top commanders had fled Aden after Houthi forces entered the city, though other reports indicated this was not the case.
As Iona Craig, a UK-based independent journalist who has covered Yemen for years and followed recent developments closely, noted on Twitter:
\u201cHard to tell what's real and what's not right now in Yemen.\u201d— Iona Craig \u0623\u064a\u0648\u0646\u0627 \u0643\u0631\u064a\u0686 (@Iona Craig \u0623\u064a\u0648\u0646\u0627 \u0643\u0631\u064a\u0686) 1427287030
According to Al-Jazeera:
The developments [in Aden] came just hours after a television station said Houthi fighters and their allies had seized an airbase where US troops and Europeans helped the country in its fight against al-Qaeda.
The Al-Masirah TV station reported that the Houthis had "secured'' the al-Annad airbase near the town of Lahij, and claimed the base had been looted by both al-Qaeda fighters and troops loyal to Hadi.
That airbase is only 60km away from Aden, the port city where President Abd- Rabbu Mansour Hadi had established a temporary capital.
Witnesses said they saw a convoy of presidential vehicles leaving Hadi's palace, located at the top of a hill in Aden overlooking the Arabian Sea, the Associated Press news agency reported.
The advance of the Houthis threatens to plunge the Arab world's poorest country into a civil war that could draw in its Gulf neighbours. Already, Hadi has asked the UN to authorise a foreign military intervention in the country.
Saud Al Faisal, Saudi Arabia's foreign minister, had previously warned that his country would take "necessary measures" if the Houthis did not resolve the crisis peacefully, without elaborating further.