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state of emergency
Trump Is Likely Plotting to Succeed Where South Korea’s Yoon Failed
Trump’s goal will be to avoid Yoon’s outcome and instead—like Putin and Orbán did in Russia and Hungary—ensure there won’t be any meaningful opposition within the GOP to his most extreme measures when they come.
Dec 04, 2024
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, whose declaration of a state of emergency yesterday shocked the world, has often been referred to (both within and outside of his country) as “South Korea’s Donald Trump.” A political outsider, he came to power with anti-establishment and often outrageously inflammatory rhetoric, trash talking women’s rights, “reforming” their healthcare system, and pushing hard for a neoliberal agenda that included raising the workweek from 52 to 69 hours.
In that, he reflects a growing trend among advanced democracies around the world, as decades of neoliberalism have weakened multiple nations’ abilities to sustain middle-class lifestyles while enriching an oligarch class that’s now reaching out—worldwid—to seize control of democratic governments to their own financial benefit.
Of all the events in world news over the past weeks—even more than the escalation of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s murderous crimes against Ukraine—President-elect Donald Trump and his authoritarian colleagues down at Mar-a-Lago are probably carefully watching what’s happening to Yoon and gaming out how a similar “emergency” action here in America might be recalibrated to have ultimate success.
If he wants to imitate Yoon’s initial declaration and successfully follow through on it, Trump will need to intimidate and bring to heel any Republicans who still think of themselves as more loyal to the nation and our Constitution than to him.
Yoon has now backed down in the face of opposition from the South Korean parliament; he couldn’t get one single vote from his own party in Parliament, and is now facing demands that he resign or be impeached.
The challenges Yoon faced included a 17% approval rating, the legislature having been captured by the opposition party, and, most importantly, that he had never forced the members of his own party to degrade themselves and perform acts of obedience in front of him.
Thus, when he tried this strongman move of declaring a state of emergency but had not, in fact, first set himself up as a strongman, it failed.
Trump’s goal will be to avoid Yoon’s outcome and instead—like Putin and Viktor Orbán did in Russia and Hungary—ensure there won’t be any meaningful opposition within the GOP to his most extreme measures when they come.
Yoon’s rightwing populist People Power Party (PPP) had lost control of parliament in the April elections to the more progressive Democratic Party of Korea (DPK); Trump will not have such a constraint in a few weeks when he takes the White House. Instead of fighting Democrats, Trump must figure out how to deal with opposition to his most extreme impulses from within his own Republican Party.
Thus, his putting forward outrageous, unqualified, and even occasionally anti-American candidates for cabinet positions is Trump’s first big step in the classic strongman move of softening up Republicans in the House and Senate so when the real fights—like over a state of emergency (and the martial law that could accompany it)—happen, his party members and the handful of “problem solver” quislings in the Democratic Party will have already surrendered their ability to resist him.
This, as I noted but our media seems to be ignoring, is where Yoon failed. Trump—if he’s successful at cowing Republicans in the Senate into rubber-stamping his picks or allowing recess appointments—may not have those constraints, since he will have ended opposition in the Senate, and his MAGA-seized GOP now also controls the House and the Supreme Court.
Nonetheless, if he wants to imitate Yoon’s initial declaration and successfully follow through on it, Trump will need to intimidate and bring to heel any Republicans who still think of themselves as more loyal to the nation and our Constitution than to him. Will they still exist by next February?
Yoon’s behavior serves as both a warning and a call to action: Democracies must stand vigilant against the creeping authoritarianism that threatens their core principles.
This is not a new strategy, as Timothy Snyder, Heidi Siegmund Cuda, or Ruth Ben-Ghiat will tell you in their excellent Substack newsletters.
One of the big points Fritz Thyssen made in his book I Paid Hitlerwas to note how he and other industrialists and politicians were required to scrape and bow before Adolf Hitler in the early months and years. There was a competition among the industrialists and German politicians alike after Hitler’s appointment as chancellor to see who could be the most publicly obsequious, slavish, and unctuous toward the new German leader.
Today in America we see a similar spectacle as politicians, media figures, business leaders, and foreign dignitaries flock to Mar-a-Lago to kiss Trump’s golden ass.
It was that exact behavior that paved the way for Hitler to shut down the German press, subserviate the Reichstag, and essentially shatter all opposition to his regime in less than half a year.
And it wasn’t just the political class who bowed to him; so, too, did most average Germans, who had become exhausted by the conflict exploding across the political spectrum and so tuned out, immersing themselves instead in sports, family, and entertainment.
As a result, every day brought a new outrage, a new norm destroyed, a new red line crossed, but each was small enough—like appointing an accused rapist and drunk or drug user to run the Justice Department or the Pentagon—that it created a buzz in the political media but wasn’t sufficient to bring even a dozen people out into the streets.
Fascism comes in on cat’s feet, step by gradual but inexorable step. It never starts with one great clashing explosion of evil or corruption that causes an entire nation to suddenly wake up and pour into the streets. There are no trumpets, drums, or cymbals. As Hemmingway wrote in The Sun Also Rises using the metaphor of bankruptcy, it happens “gradually, and then suddenly.”
It’s usually the story of an insidious gradualism, like what a German professor told Chicago reporter Milton Mayer about in 1954:
But of course this isn’t the way it happens. In between come all the hundreds of little steps, some of them imperceptible, each of them preparing you not to be shocked by the next. Step C is not so much worse than Step B, and, if you did not make a stand at Step B, why should you at Step C? And so on to Step D.
And one day, too late, your principles, if you were ever sensible of them, all rush in upon you. The burden of self-deception has grown too heavy, and some minor incident, in my case my little boy, hardly more than a baby, saying “Jew swine,” collapses it all at once, and you see that everything, everything, has changed and changed completely under your nose.
Yoon’s declaration of emergency and martial law was explicit: It banned all political activities of the National Assembly, local councils, political parties, and associations; prohibited gatherings, protests, and labor strikes; and placed the media under the authority of the Martial Law Command.
Trump has made similar threats to our media and promised to use the state’s power of guns and jails to “root out the communists, Marxists, fascists, and the radical left thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our country,” claiming, like Yoon did, that “the threat from outside forces is far less sinister, dangerous, and grave than the threat from within. Our threat is from within.”
Yoon’s effort to quickly convert South Korea into an autocratic state has so far backfired, in large part because of public opinion, a still-free press, and the courage of opposition and his own PPP politicians alike. The lesson Trump should learn from Yoon’s unsuccessful attempt is the need to avoid authoritarianism and instead embrace coalition-building, transparent governance, and a balanced approach to both domestic and foreign policy challenges.
Instead, it’s a virtual certainty that Trump is thinking Yoon should have acted before April, before the more progressive DPK took back over the parliament, and should have helped friendly oligarchs to seize the media in advance of his proclamation. And that he needs to move fast, before Democrats can regain power in the 2026 midterms that will be only 22 months away.
The resilience of democracy depends on the strength of its institutions, the vigilance of its citizens, and the commitment of its elected leaders of all parties to uphold democratic values. Yoon’s behavior serves as both a warning and a call to action: Democracies must stand vigilant against the creeping authoritarianism that threatens their core principles. As Trump’s return looms, these lessons cannot be ignored.
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Amnesty Accuses El Salvador of 'Systematic' Human Rights Abuses After Emergency Declaration
"The deaths of 132 people in state custody, arbitrary detention, mass criminal prosecutions, and the indiscriminate imprisonment of tens of thousands of people are incompatible with an effective, fair, and lasting public security strategy," said a regional director.
Apr 03, 2023
Just over a year into a "state of exception" in El Salvador, Amnesty International on Monday accused all three branches of government of enabling "the systematic, massive, and sustained violation of the human rights of the Salvadoran population" in a supposed effort to crack down on gang violence.
Since the Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele requested and the Legislative Assembly approved the state of emergency that suspended certain civil liberties in March 2022, lawmakers have repeatedly extended it, most recently last month. The policy has "allowed the arbitrary detention and imprisonment of more than 66,000 people," according to the global human rights group.
"The international community is alert to the grave human rights consequences of the state of emergency in El Salvador," said Erika Guevara-Rosas, Amnesty's Americas director. "The compliance of the institutions responsible for ensuring and administering justice in the country has led to the criminal justice system being weaponized to punish people, the majority of whom are from historically marginalized areas, when there is no evidence that they have committed a crime."
Specifically, according to the organization:
On the one hand, the executive, through the police, the armed forces, and the Ministry of Security, has designed and implemented a security strategy based on the excessive use of force, indiscriminate arbitrary detention, and the practice of cruel, inhuman, and degrading treatment including torture.
For its part, the legislature has for a year continued to approve and extend the period that the state of emergency, a measure whose nature is temporary and extraordinary, remains in force. In addition, it has supported a series of legal amendments that contravene international human rights standards ratified by the country.
Finally, the judiciary is not acting independently, is violating the right to due process, and is failing to combat impunity for the violations committed. The courts and auxiliary entities as well as those attached to the Public Prosecutor's Office are flagrantly failing in their duties in criminal proceedings.
"The deaths of 132 people in state custody, arbitrary detention, mass criminal prosecutions, and the indiscriminate imprisonment of tens of thousands of people are incompatible with an effective, fair, and lasting public security strategy," said Guevara-Rosas. "The systematic violation of human rights and the dismantling of the rule of law are not the answer to the problems facing the country. On the contrary, they set very dangerous precedents."
While the confirmed death toll as of last month is 132, Amnesty noted that "Salvadoran human rights organizations believe that there is underreporting because of reported cases of exhumations of victims from mass graves after families were finally able to learn of the deaths of individuals who had died months earlier."
In one case highlighted by the group, a 45-year-old man with mental disabilities was apprehended at his home in April 2022. His family spent months trying to locate him. In September, someone who claimed to have shared a cell with the man called his family and advised them to go to the Forensic Medicine Institute, because he believed the man died after being beaten by guards.
"He told us: 'Your relative vomited blood through his mouth and nose. I think he died, because they took him to the hospital and they never brought him back,'" the family said. The Forensic Medicine Institute informed them that he died after 36 days in custody and was buried in a mass grave. The family had his remains exhumed in October but is unaware of any investigation into his death.
That's part of a trend, according to Amnesty. Guevara-Rosas said that "in none of the 50 cases we have documented has it been possible to verify that there were investigation processes regarding the conduct of public officials. The fact that there are widespread human rights violations and virtually no ongoing criminal proceedings evidences the control exercised from the highest level so that all state powers obey this policy of indiscriminate imprisonment."
\u201cToday marks one year since a state of emergency was decreed in El Salvador, since then, more than 66,000 detentions took place and 132 deaths occurred in state custody, most of whom at the time of their deaths had not been found guilty of any crime \ud83d\udc47 \nhttps://t.co/TUQymUdrEN\u201d— Amnesty International (@Amnesty International) 1680541200
Along with documenting abuse by police and prison guards sometimes resulting in deaths from "beatings," "mechanical asphyxiation," and "multiple unidentified traumas," Amnesty interviewed people subjected to "extreme overcrowding in cells holding more than 100 people." Detainees disclosed a "lack of sanitation and access to basic services such as water, adequate food, medicines, and medical care," and said they were cut off from communicating with family.
"We see with alarm how overcrowding and torture continue to claim the lives of innocent people, with the complicity of all the institutions that are supposed to uphold their rights," said Guevara-Rosas. "The dehumanization that thousands of unjustly imprisoned people are suffering is intolerable and must be urgently addressed by international human rights protection mechanisms."
"Given the systematic nature of grave human rights violations, we call on international protection mechanisms to intervene urgently to avoid a major crisis in El Salvador," she added. "The Salvadoran state must know with certainty that the international community will not tolerate these kinds of policies."
Amnesty's findings and demands echo those of other advocacy groups, including Human Rights Watch, which released a lengthy report on the state of exception in December. Juanita Goebertus, the organization's Americas director, said at the time that "to put an end to gang violence and human rights violations, El Salvador's government should replace the state of emergency with an effective and rights-respective security policy that grants Salvadorans the safety they so dearly deserve."
Goebertus also argued that "the international community should redouble its efforts to help ensure that Salvadorans are safe from heinous crimes by gangs, human rights violations by security forces, and other abuse of power."
\u201c#ElSalvador: We are very concerned by state of emergency now in force for 1yr & repressive measures to address insecurity, incl mass detentions. Call on authorities to comply w/ intl law & protect right to life, prohibition against torture & due process: https://t.co/EgDJdDXn2r\u201d— UN Human Rights (@UN Human Rights) 1680015959
Al Jazeera reported Monday that "such criticism has done little, however, to deter Bukele, whose popularity has surged as the crackdown exerts pressure on networks of gangs that have brought violence and exploitation to many areas of the country for years."
The president, the outlet noted, "recently unveiled a new, megaprison to hold people rounded up under the state of emergency," saying in February that "this will be their new house, where they will live for decades, all mixed, unable to do any further harm to the population."
Bukele's five-year term is set to end next year. The president confirmed in September his intention to seek reelection despite arguments that doing so would be unconstitutional.
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'Red Lights Flashing': Australia Smashes Heat Record Just a Day After Previous Record Hit
"I think this is the single loudest alarm bell I've ever heard on global heating."
Dec 18, 2019
Calls for immediate and ambitious action to tackle the climate emergency piled up Thursday in response to preliminary analysis from Australia's Bureau of Meteorology that Wednesday smashed the nation's temperature record by a full 1degC just one day after the previous all-time record.
The first record was set Tuesday, when Australia's national average maximum temperature reached 40.9degC (105.6degF), eliciting alarm from climate and fire safety experts. Wednesday, the average rose to 41.9degC (107.4degF), sparking a fresh wave of warnings and demands for bold efforts to battle the planetary crisis.
\u201cFor the second day in a row, Australia has broken its hottest day in recorded history.\n\nThe nationwide average temperature on December 18 was 41.9\u00b0C (107.4\u00b0F) -- across an area the size of the U.S. -- that's unthinkable.\n\nWe are in a climate emergency.\u201d— Eric Holthaus (@Eric Holthaus) 1576738338
"On Wednesday, Australia's heatwave reached incredible proportions," tweeted Kees van der Leun, a director at the American consultancy firm Navigant who works with energy sector clients in Europe and the Middle East.
"I think this is the single loudest alarm bell I've ever heard on global heating," added van der Leun. "Red lights flashing all over. Politicians not taking this as a call for climate action will probably never act at all."
\u201c\u201cThe reality of climate change is upon us.\u201d \n\nAustralia records its hottest day on record, two days in a row.\u201d— Al Jazeera English (@Al Jazeera English) 1576765800
Amid the mounting alarm, meteorologists warned Thursday that the record-smashing heat in Australia is set to continue. The Sydney Morning Heraldreported that "the national temperature record could be broken for the third day in a row when it is analyzed on Friday."
New South Wales--which is Australia's most populous state and home to Sydney, the country's largest city--has been battling high temperatures and devastating bushfires for the past few months.
"While other parts of the country will cool down, NSW is bracing for deteriorating conditions on the weekend," according to the Herald. Saturday, the temperature could soar to 47degC (116.6degF) in Western Sydney.
Alongside higher temperatures in the coming days, Neil Bennett of the government's meteorology bureau told the newspaper, "the other thing that's similar to today is that there will be a southerly change during the day. So once again the fires will be impacted, and that's just going to exacerbate problems."
In response to over 100 wildfires raging across NSW--only half of which are under control--the state government on Thursday declared a seven-day state of emergency and announced a statewide total fire ban that will run through midnight Saturday.
\u201cVIDEO: \ud83c\udde6\ud83c\uddfa A state of emergency was declared in Australia's most populated state of New South Wales on Thursday, as a record heatwave fanned unprecedented bushfires #NSWbushfires\u201d— AFP News Agency (@AFP News Agency) 1576736350
According toThe Associated Press:
New South Wales Premier Gladys Berejiklian said authorities were concerned with the unpredictable conditions.
"With extreme wind conditions, extreme hot temperatures, we have a good idea, a good sense, of where the most concerning areas are, but again when you've got those turbulent conditions, embers and spot fires can occur very unpredictably," she told reporters.
In addition to NSW, bushfires are also burning in the states of Queensland, South Australia, and Western Australia. The AP noted that "protesters on Thursday camped outside Prime Minister Scott Morrison's Sydney residence demanding urgent action on climate change."
Local climate advocacy groups shared updates from the scene:
\u201cBunking in at the PM's house to wait for @ScottMorrisonMP to come back and do his job and tackle the #climatecrisis. We're outside 109 Kirribilli Ave if you wanna join. #WhereTheBloodyHellAreYou #FireMorrison\u201d— School Strike 4 Climate Australia (@School Strike 4 Climate Australia) 1576711454
\u201cIzzy was moved on by a mob of riot police at @StrikeClimate\u2019s camp out outside Prime Minister Scott Morrison's Kirribilli House. Sydney is choking, NSW is burning, & our PM is nowhere to be found.\n\n#FireMorrison #Auspol #FireScomo #WhereTheBloodyHellAreYa #ThisIsClimateChange\u201d— Extinction Rebellion Australia (@Extinction Rebellion Australia) 1576743166
Residents impacted by the blazes and leftist politicians have sharply criticized how Australia's Liberal-National Coalition government, led by Morrison, has handled the recent fires--and, more broadly, the global climate crisis.
Anthony Albanese, leader of Australia's Labour Party, addressed the need to step up federal government action in comments to reporters Thursday:
\u201c"These bushfires are not business as usual...firefighters are exhausted, we need to provide them with the same level of support that they're providing their community." @AlboMP has addressed the bushfire crisis as flames continue to burn in NSW. https://t.co/aSqPoB1lfa #7NEWS\u201d— 7NEWS Australia (@7NEWS Australia) 1576731495
"The government needs to open their eyes and see through the smoke," Albanese tweeted, sharing a short clip of his remarks. "Bushfires are threatening homes and communities. This is a national crisis. We need a national response."
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