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treaty on the prohibition of nuclear weapons
As the Doomsday Clock Ticks Closer to Midnight, Will Trump Make the Ultimate Deal?
All nuclear nations are following the U.S. lead in rebuilding their arsenals, giving President Trump, who has expressed concern over nuclear war, a chance to act if he will take it.
Jan 28, 2025
Eighty years ago saw the dawn of the nuclear age with the development and subsequent sole use of nuclear weapons when the United States dropped them on Hiroshima and Nagasaki killing roughly 200,000, mainly civilian Japanese citizens. These events and the subsequent nuclear arms race driven by the myth of nuclear deterrence have hung over civilization to this day, threatening our very existence.
On Tuesday, the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists unveiled its prophetic “Doomsday Clock” moving the hand to 89 seconds to midnight, the closest it has ever been to midnight, representing the time at which our planet is uninhabitable and life as we know it is no longer possible. The Bulletin was originally founded in 1945 by the developers of the atomic bomb, including Albert Einstein, Robert Oppenheimer, and University of Chicago scientists to inform the public of man-made threats to human existence.
While nuclear weapons were the initial existential threat focus of the Doomsday Clock, risk multipliers are now included. These include the climate crisis, which reduces access to natural resources fueling conflict. Bio threats, like COVID-19 and future pandemics, are increasing as mankind and the animal kingdom interface ever more closely. In addition, the threats of bioterrorism, disinformation, and disruptive technologies—including AI—have made the risk even greater.
An important element to realizing this call to protect our world is the need to build the political will and give cover to members of Congress, many of whom who have been captured by the nuclear and military industrial complex.
Even at this time of great challenge, there is great hope arising from the international community as the fourth anniversary of the entry into force of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) was celebrated last week. Under this treaty, nuclear weapons are illegal to stockpile, develop, test, transfer, use, or even threaten to use, and join all other weapons of mass destruction in that reality. The treaty emanated from civil society; impacted communities, including Hibakusha and victims of nuclear weapons, testing, and development legacy; international organizations; and government and elected officials. Today, with 73 nations ratifying the treaty, half the world’s countries representing over 2.5 billion people are on board with this nuclear ban.
The international movement that brought forth this treaty is the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), winner of the 2017 Nobel Peace prize. This movement currently has 652 international partner organizations. The aim of this movement is to stigmatize, prohibit, and eliminate nuclear weapons.
In the United States there is a parallel effort endorsing nuclear abolition and the precautionary safeguard measures to reduce the risk of nuclear war until these weapons are verifiably abolished. This movement is called “Back from the Brink.” Similar to the TPNW, this movement has been endorsed by 493 organizations, 77 municipalities and counties, eight state legislative bodies, 428 municipal and state officials, and 44 members of Congress. It calls on the United States to lead a global effort to prevent nuclear war by:
- Actively pursuing a verifiable agreement among nuclear armed states to eliminate their nuclear arsenals;
- Renouncing the option of using nuclear weapons first;
- Ending the sole, unchecked authority of any U.S. president to launch a nuclear attack;
- Taking U.S. Nuclear weapons off hair-trigger alert; and
- Canceling the plan to replace the U.S. nuclear arsenal with enhanced weapons.
There is companion legislation in the U.S. House of Representatives, H. Res. 77, calling on the United States to adopt Back from the Brink’s comprehensive policy prescriptions for preventing nuclear war. This legislation introduced by Rep. James McGovern (D-Mass.) is expected to be reintroduced soon in the new Congress.
An important element to realizing this call to protect our world is the need to build the political will and give cover to members of Congress, many of whom who have been captured by the nuclear and military industrial complex, to endorse this legislation and to engage the next generation whose future is threatened by policies that they have had no say in. Across the nation over the past year a student movement called Students for Nuclear Disarmament (SND) has been taking shape in our high schools, colleges, and universities.
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Talia’s Story
I am currently a senior at Tufts University, graduating this June. As I reflect back on my choice of major, I recognize that I first knew I wanted to study international relations as a freshman in high school. I am an avid news reader and am fascinated by different countries’ decision-making processes. I considered myself well read and up to date on current events. It wasn’t until near the end of my freshman year of college that I had even heard of the nuclear threat.
After hearing one lecture on the growing threat of nuclear war, I changed my major to focus on understanding the history of nuclear weapons and advocating for disarmament through extracurricular activities. I joined SND last year, and, working with other student activists, renewed my passion for this work. Through webinars, emails, phone calls, and social media, we have engaged with students across America to build our movement.
It is clear that my generation does not associate the nuclear threat with problems we face today. SND is not only an organization that raises awareness, but also an organization that empowers young people to take action and show their congresspeople that we are not blind to this threat. Successful student activism inspires students on the precipice of action to take the next step. SND has made great strides in 2024, and, with growing chapters and more student leaders, SND is ready to push Congress to take action.
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The timing of this Doomsday Clock unveiling could not be more critical. U.S. President Donald Trump, who professes wanting to make America great again, has expressed his concern about the existential consequences of nuclear war throughout his public life. Campaigning last June he said, “Tomorrow, we could have a war that will be so devastating that you could never recover from it. Nobody can. The whole world won’t be able to recover from it.”
With Russian threats to use nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine and the Israeli-Gaza war, heightened tensions between Taiwan and China, and North Korean nuclear advances, the stakes could not be higher. All nuclear nations are following the U.S. lead in rebuilding their arsenals. The U.S. alone is estimated to spend $756 billion on nuclear weapons in the next 10 years.
Time and luck are not on our side. What is required is bold and new thinking about our nuclear realities. President Trump, the “great dealmaker,” is back in the White House with one last chance to make the ultimate deal for the future of humanity.
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Nuclear Justice Efforts Are Here to Stay
The states that have caused harm to peoples around the planet can finally stop pretending that such harms are either nonexistent or that they have done enough to address them.
Nov 19, 2024
On November 7, the First Committee of the United Nations General Assembly overwhelmingly supported a resolution to help victims of nuclear weapons use and testing. Brought forward by the Republics of Kazakhstan and Kiribati, and co-sponsored by 39 additional U.N. Member States, the resolution received 169 votes in favor, with only four nuclear weapon possessors—Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, France, Russia, and the United Kingdom—voting against it. The remaining five nuclear armed states (China, India, Israel, Pakistan, and the United States), plus Poland, all abstained.
The vote is a resounding affirmation that nuclear justice efforts are here to stay. The states that have caused harm to peoples around the planet, including their own citizens and those whose care they were entrusted with, can finally stop pretending that such harms are either nonexistent or that they have done enough to address them. The nuclear weapon possessors, most especially the five nuclear weapon states—China, France, Russia, United States, and the United Kingdom—recognized as such by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, must engage in earnest.
Ultimately, nuclear justice must also include elimination of all nuclear weapon arsenals. This would ensure that the suffering of those impacted by nuclear weapons has not been in vain.
Ever-growing understanding of the humanitarian consequences of nuclear weapon attacks by the United States on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, as well as the testing of nuclear weapons that lasted for decades and reached numerous corners of the globe, provided a huge impetus behind the Humanitarian Initiative, a successful effort started in the early 2010s by a group of states in collaboration with civil society, all motivated to change the nuclear weapons status quo. Coupled with the growing appreciation of what nuclear war would bring today or tomorrow (subject of another U.N. resolution that passed this month with 141 in favor votes, 30 abstentions, and France, Russia, and the United Kingdom voting no), as well as the research on the risk of nuclear weapon use and the recognition that no adequate response could be devised for such a possibility, the Humanitarian Initiative led to successful efforts to bring into the U.N. system a treaty prohibiting nuclear weapons (Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons or TPNW).
When the TPNW was drafted in 2017, the diplomats recognized that it wasn’t enough to prohibit nuclear weapon activities, but that the past and present consequences for people and the environment had to be addressed head-on. This led to the Articles 6 and 7 of the TPNW on victim assistance, environmental remediation, and international cooperation, which are collectively referred to as the humanitarian provisions of the treaty. The goal is not just to make these ongoing harms integral to the effort to prohibit and eliminate nuclear weapons, but to address them directly and provide tangible results for the communities that have suffered from adverse health and socioeconomic impacts for decades and whose environments may still be radiologically contaminated. Having entered into force in 2021, the TPNW is now faced with the implementation of these provisions for two states that are already parties to the treaty, Republics of Kazakhstan and Kiribati. Kazakhstan was the site of 456 Soviet nuclear tests from 1949 to 1991, while Kiribati was home from 1957 to 1962 to United States and United Kingdom tests whose cumulative yield was equivalent to more than 2,000 Hiroshima bombs.
The humanitarian provisions of the TPNW have led to the broadening of conversations about these harms and the new norm arising from the treaty of the obligation to address them. While the United States had a Radiation Exposure Compensation Act from the early 1990s until its expiration earlier this year, and France introduced its Loi Morin law in 2010, these efforts have been severely limited in their scope and impact. In both cases, the definition of a victim was restricted in such a way as to prevent many of those harmed from qualifying for the compensation. Even for the people who have qualified, the assistance has been inadequate. Worse yet is the case of all of the communities that have been completely disregarded and excluded from such compensation schemes.
What is particularly powerful about the nuclear justice resolution is that, with the exception of Poland this year, it has left the nuclear weapon possessors totally alone. Even their closest friends and allies have now voted in favor of the resolution for the second year in a row. More than 70 states that have not yet joined the TPNW have now affirmed that nuclear justice is a worthwhile effort they are ready to stand behind. In this way, the resolution is a powerful example of the way in which the TPNW Is already having an impact on international norms and policies even as nearly half of U.N. Members States have yet to join the treaty.
The road to nuclear justice is long. It will include acknowledgment, compensation, and the promise to never cause such harms again. The next phase must consist of genuine and independent assessment of needs both for victim assistance and environmental remediation in all impacted areas, with the international community coming together to offer help, including technical and financial assistance. How much remains to be done will in many ways depend on what the assessments demonstrate.
Ultimately, nuclear justice must also include elimination of all nuclear weapon arsenals. This would ensure that the suffering of those impacted by nuclear weapons has not been in vain. Instead, future generations will see it as the rallying call that brought the international community together to guarantee the right of survival to humanity and our fellow Earth inhabitants for the foreseeable future.
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Why Isn’t the Nuclear Threat a 2024 Campaign Issue?
Neither Donald Trump nor Kamala Harris has volunteered positions on nuclear arsenals or nuclear abolition, due to either not wanting to appear weak or a lack of understanding of the risks of their continued existence.
Sep 27, 2024
Thursday was the United Nations International Day for the Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons. This day was initially declared in 2013 as a way to heighten awareness of the threat of nuclear weapons in an attempt to educate the world community and reaffirm its commitment to global nuclear disarmament. Next year is the 80th anniversary of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the first and only use of nuclear weapons, immediately killing an estimated 210,000 men, women, and children with scores dying in the ensuing years from cancers, burns, injuries, and other lethal effects of the bombs.
Following World War II, nuclear disarmament has been one of the highest priorities of the United Nations and was the subject of the first General Assembly resolution in 1946. Unfortunately, the aftermath of WWII also saw the Cold War and the first nuclear arms race between the United States and the former Soviet Union. By 1986 this armed the world with 70,300 nuclear weapons. Through arms reduction treaties over the years that number has been reduced to approximately 12,100 weapons this year.
While the significant reductions in nuclear weapons is notable, the knowledge of the humanitarian consequences following the use of nuclear weapons from only a single weapon or a limited or full-scale nuclear war confirms the insanity of the very existence of any number of these weapons.
With the passing of the International Day for the Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons, let us ensure that future generations look back on our time here and realize that we saw the threat to our existence and took the necessary actions to eliminate that possibility.
Yet today we remain as close or closer to nuclear war than at any time since the dropping of the first nuclear weapons. The world is full of potential nuclear hot spots: the current war in Ukraine with Russian President Vladimir Putin threatening the use of battlefield nuclear weapons and more, the war raging in Israel against Gaza, the constant tensions between India and Pakistan, the tensions between China and Taiwan, and finally ongoing tensions with North Korea.
These flash points, in addition to the growing catastrophic effects of climate change resulting in further international conflict, as well as disruptive technologies, including cyber attacks and the potential use of AI, caused the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists to move their infamous Doomsday Clock to 90 seconds to midnight for the second year in a row.
In this setting, and in the midst of the current U.S. presidential campaign, mainstream media has largely been oblivious to or unaware of the growing national and international nuclear abolition movement and efforts therein. The presidential campaign has seen no discussion of nuclear weapons or abolition, and only candidate Trump has mentioned them in vague reference to deterrence or World War III. Neither candidate has volunteered positions during this campaign on nuclear arsenals or nuclear abolition, due to either not wanting to appear weak or a lack of understanding of the risks of their continued existence.
Certainly the awareness and understanding of the consequences of nuclear weapons and their use can be overwhelming, paralyzing, and often daunting to address. Yet we must be aware of the risks they pose and the opportunities before us. This past year has seen significant increased awareness of nuclear weapons following the Oppenheimer film; the subsequent New York Times series, “At The Brink,” covering our nuclear world; and finally Annie Jacobsen’s New York Times best-selling book, Nuclear War: A Scenario, which describes in graphic detail the end of civilization playing out in 24 minutes, following a hypothetical nuclear attack by North Korea on the United States and the self-fulfilling prophecy of the reflexive apocalyptic response. This book should be mandatory reading for any presidential candidate or member of Congress, requiring their response for how they plan to prevent this scenario.
On this week of the International Day for the Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons, there is much happening, both internationally and here in the United States. As people are made aware of the sword of Damocles hanging over their heads, they are demanding abolition of these weapons and for our leaders to take action immediately. Internationally, the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons has three new nations ratifying the treaty this week, bringing the total to 73—with 25 additional signatory nations awaiting ratification.
This movement has been spearheaded by ICAN, the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear weapons. In the United States there is an intersectional grassroots movement that is rapidly growing called “Back From the Brink.” Supporting the TPNW, this movement calls on the United States to take a leadership role in convening the nine nuclear nations for a verifiable, time bound effort to abolish all nuclear weapons. In addition, it includes the actionable precautionary measures until abolition has been realized. These include a no-first-use policy, eliminating the authority of any president to initiate nuclear war, removing our weapons from hair trigger alert, and finally canceling the plan to replace all of our nuclear weapons with new, enhanced nuclear weapons.
Back From the Brink has the support of 490 organizations, 77 cities and counties, eight state legislative bodies, 44 members of Congress, and 428 municipal and state officials. It also has a U.S. House of Representatives resolution, H. Res 77, sponsored by Massachusetts Rep. Jim McGovern and supported by 44 members of Congress. Back From the Brink can be endorsed by all, and currently there are 19 local hubs across the nation working collaboratively and in coalition with their communities to build support for this effort.
With the passing of the International Day for the Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons, let us ensure that future generations look back on our time here and realize that we saw the threat to our existence and took the necessary actions to eliminate that possibility. Each of us has a role to play in making this a reality.
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