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World Weather Attribution found that "Milton's rainfall was made 10-50% more intense and about twice as likely due to climate change, while wind speeds were around 10% stronger."
With rescue and cleanup efforts underway in Florida following back-to-back disasters wrought by hurricanes Helene and Milton, scientists on Friday released an analysis highlighting how the latter storm was "wetter, windier, and more destructive because of climate change" driven by fossil fuels.
Hurricane categories are based on wind speed, and scientists have connected quick jumps in ratings to the climate emergency. Milton rapidly intensified to Category 5, the highest on the scale, while in the Gulf of Mexico but made landfall late Wednesday as a Category 3 storm—less than two weeks after Category 4 Helene hit Florida and then left a trail of destruction across the Southeast.
Based on modeling, "climate change was responsible for an increase of about 40% in the number of storms of this intensity, and equivalently that the maximum wind speeds of similar storms are now about 5 m/s (around 10%) stronger than in a world without climate change," World Weather Attribution (WWA) said Friday. "In other words, without climate change Milton would have made landfall as a Category 2 instead of a Category 3 storm."
WWA also detailed how the warming climate is connected to the water that Milton left in its wake. As the group said: "In 3 out of the 4 analyzed datasets we find that heavy one-day rainfall events such as the one associated with Milton are 20-30% more intense and about twice as likely in today's climate, that is 1.3°C warmer than it would have been without human-induced climate change. The fourth dataset shows much larger changes."
"These results are based on observational data and do not include climate models and are thus higher than the overarching attribution statement given for Hurricane Helene, where we combined observations and climate models. Nevertheless the results are compatible with those obtained for other hurricanes in the area that have been studied in the scientific literature," WWA continued. "Despite using different temporal and geographical event definitions, as well as different observational datasets and climate models, all these studies show a similar increase in intensity of between 10% and 50% and about a doubling in likelihood. We are therefore confident that such changes in heavy rainfall are attributable to human-caused climate change."
Both storms have generated fresh calls to "make polluters pay" for the damage and deaths caused by extreme weather exacerbated by fossil fuels. There are ongoing state-level lawsuits against Big Oil and recent demands for prosecutors to consider bringing criminal charges against companies, using attribution science to make their cases.
"This study has confirmed what should already be abundantly clear: Climate change is supercharging storms, and burning fossil fuels is to blame," Ian Duff, head of Greenpeace International's Stop Drilling Start Paying campaign, toldReuters about the WWA findings out Friday. "Millions of people across Florida—many of whom lack insurance—now face astronomical costs to rebuild shattered homes and communities."
Milton killed at least 16 people—on top of the over 230 deaths tied to Helene—and could cause up to $50 billion in insured losses for property owners in Florida alone, Fitch Ratings said Thursday. As of early Friday, over 2 million state residents still lacked power, according toCBS News.
While Milton barreled toward Florida on Wednesday, WWA published a report detailing how climate change was a "key driver of catastrophic impacts of Hurricane Helene that devastated both coastal and inland communities."
That followed a Monday analysis from the research organization Climate Central showing that high sea-surface temperatures that fuled Milton's rapid intensification were made 400-800 times more likely by the climate crisis.
U.S. Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) pointed to both of those studies on social media Friday, in a series of posts promoting his appearance on MSNBC's "All In With Chris Hayes" earlier this week.
During Khanna's MSNBC appearance, he pointed out how Democrats on Capitol Hill have fought for more funding for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), which responds to disasters like Milton and Helene, while Republicans have opposed it.
Speaking to reporters last week, before Milton made landfall, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas warned that FEMA is urgently in need of more money for this hurricane season, which lasts until November.
"We are meeting the immediate needs with the money that we have. We are expecting another hurricane hitting," Mayorkas said in anticipation of Milton. "FEMA does not have the funds to make it through the season."
"This is definitely what we will see much more of in the future."
The record-setting rainfall that hit Central Europe in mid September was made roughly twice as likely and 7% more severe by climate change, according to an analysis released Wednesday.
The 36-page study, conducted by scientists affiliated with World Weather Attribution (WWA), looked at the causes of the extreme rain that peaked from September 12 until September 15. Called Storm Boris, it hit many countries including Poland, Austria, and the Czech Republic, and set off flooding that killed at least 24 people.
The authors, whose work wasn't peer reviewed, warned that Storm Boris was a sign of what's to come.
"This is definitely what we will see much more of in the future," Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and co-author of the study, told the BBC.
"[It] is the absolute fingerprint signature of climate change... that records are broken by such a large margin."
The floods that killed 24 people in Central Europe were caused by rainfall made twice as likely and at least 7% heavier by climate change 📈🌧️
Floods will become more destructive and costly with further fossil fuel warming.
Our analysis was published this morning 🧵 https://t.co/0rJjYuYnUt
— World Weather Attribution (@WWAttribution) September 25, 2024
The heavy rainfall was caused by a Vb (pronounced "five-b") depression that "forms when cold polar air flows from the north over the Alps, meeting very warm air in Southern Europe," according to a WWA statement that accompanied the study.
The damage came partly from the fact that the storm lingered for many days, with rain falling on saturated ground and overflowing bodies of water. The WWA scientists didn't determine if the duration was affected by climate change; however, in general, the affect of climate change on the jet stream, which normally helps push weather patterns through the continent quickly, could play a role in causing storms to linger, experts say.
"These types of blocking situations and meandering jet stream-induced situations are increasing in frequency," Hayley Fowler, a climate scientist at Newcastle University who wasn't involved in the study, toldNPR.
Other factors in the Stom Boris disaster were more clearly influenced by a warmer planet. The most basic and straightforward factor is that hotter air can hold more water—for each degree celsius that the Earth heats up, the atmosphere can hold about 7% more water, so there's more that can turn into rain.
The WWA study's key findings—a roughly twofold increase in the likelihood of Storm Boris and a 7% increase in intensity caused by climate change—may in fact be underestimates. The findings are "too conservative," the study says.
The analysis does contain good news: European authorities were more prepared for this storm than they had been in the past, likely saving dozens of lives.
Far more people died during extreme flooding episodes in the region in 1997 and 2002—more than 100, in each case—even though the rainfall in those events was less severe and didn't cover such a large area. Governments have since invested in forecasting, early warning systems, and flood defenses like levees. The city of Vienna has been particularly strong on flood preparations, and its investments paid off when Storm Boris did little damage there.
Otto, the co-author, said on social media that early warning systems worked well but flood defenses are, in general, still being put up "way too slowly." She said addressing the climate crisis would pay off in many ways for people on the continent.
"All Europeans need to know that tackling it will make their lives so much better—ending fossil fuels creates jobs, lowers energy bills, makes cities healthier places to live, and reduces the risk of killer floods," she said.
Many observers had assumed that climate change played a role in the flooding before the WWA analysis was released. On September 16, Greenpeace called for fossil fuel companies to pay for the damage caused by extreme weather events. The type of attribution science conducted by WWA helps strengthen the case for accountability, advocates say.
"What you see here is worse than in 1997, and I don't know what will happen because my house is under water and I don't know if I will even return to it," one storm evacuee said.
Extreme flooding has claimed the lives of at least seven people in Central and Eastern Europe and forced thousands to flee their homes over the weekend.
Storm Boris—a low pressure system—has been lashing the area since Thursday, with major cities seeing a month's worth of rain and some areas seeing their heaviest rainfall in 100 years between Saturday and Sunday.
"We are again facing the effects of climate change, which are increasingly present on the European continent, with dramatic consequences," Romanian President Klaus Iohannis said, as The Guardian reported.
The storm has been deadliest in Romania, where four people were killed on Saturday and a fifth on Sunday, according toCNN. Hundreds of people also had to be rescued from rising waters.
The most impacted part of Romania was Galati, where the storm damaged around 5,400 homes—and around 700 in the village of Slobozia Conachi alone.
"This is a catastrophe of epic proportions," Mayor Emil Dragomir said, as The Guardian reported.
"The idiotic media have failed to make it clear what's coming—and this is still the beginning."
The sixth death came in Austria, where a firefighter battling flooding perished on Sunday. Authorities have declared a disaster for Lower Austria, where Vienna is located, and staged nearly 5,000 rescues there Saturday night. The storm also shut down rail service in the eastern part of the country.
"We are experiencing difficult and dramatic hours in Lower Austria," said the provincial governor Johanna Mikl-Leitner, as The Associated Press reported. "For many people in Lower Austria these will probably be the most difficult hours of their lives."
In Poland, one person drowned in the hardest-hit region of Kłodzko, where around 1,600 people were forced to evacuate and 17,000 lost power.
In another town of Stonie Slaski, flood waters overwhelmed a dam and collapsed a bridge, while the river in Glucholazy overflowed its banks.
"The situation is still very dramatic in many place[s]," Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Sunday, according to CNN. "Unfortunately, these situations are repeating themselves in many places… but some residents sometimes underestimate the level of threat and refuse to evacuate."
The storm also pummeled parts of Slovakia, Hungary, and the Czech Republic, where some of the highest rainfall totals in the region were reported and where four people are still missing.
The storm forced 10,000 people from the city of Opava to flee their homes, and Mayor Tomáš Navrátil said conditions were worse than in 1997's so-called "flood of the century," according to AP.
"What you see here is worse than in 1997, and I don't know what will happen because my house is under water and I don't know if I will even return to it," Lipová-lázne resident Pavel Bily said, as The Guardian reported.
The rains are expected to continue at least through Monday.
In 2021, World Weather Attribution said that the climate emergency has made extreme flooding in Europe more likely. The storm also followed the hottest summer on record, as well as a warm beginning to September in the region, and warmer air can hold more moisture.
"People are in prison today for trying to warn the public how bad things are going to get," author Matthew Todd wrote on social media in response to footage of a dam bursting in Poland. "Scientists have taken to the streets to warn us."
"The idiotic media have failed to make it clear what's coming—and this is still the beginning," Todd continued. "Educate everyone you know."