On
November 17, 2008, when Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari and U.S.
ambassador Ryan Crocker signed an agreement for the withdrawal of U.S.
troops from Iraq, citizens from both countries applauded. While many
were disappointed about the lengthy timeline for the withdrawal of the
troops, it appeared that a roadmap was set to end the war and
occupation. However, the first step -- withdrawing U.S. troops from
Iraqi cities by June 30, 2009 -- is full of loopholes, and tens of
thousands of U.S. soldiers will remain in the cities after the
"deadline" passes.
The failure to fully comply with the withdrawal agreement indicates
the United States is looking to withdraw from Iraq in name only, as it
appears that up to 50,000 military personnel will remain after the deadline.
The United States claims it's adhering to the agreement, known as
the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA), even with so many troops being
left in the cities. But the United States is changing semantics instead
of policy. For example, there are no plans to transfer the 3,000
American troops stationed within Baghdad at Forward Operating Base
Falcon, because commanders have determined that despite its location, it's not within the city.
The original intent of moving troops out of the cities was to reduce
the U.S. military role and send the message to Iraqis that the United
States would be leaving the country soon. But troops that are no longer
sleeping in the cities will still take part in operations within Iraqi
cities; they will serve in "support" and "advisory" roles, rather than
combat functions. Such "reclassification" of troops as military
trainers is another example of how the United States is circumventing
the terms of the SOFA agreement.
The larger loophole in the agreement is the treatment of military contractors. There has been little mention of the 132,610 military contractors in Iraq. Of these, 36,061 are American citizens, according to a recent Department of Defense report.
Since September 2008, only 30,000 troops have left Iraq. The 134,000 soldiers that remain are just slightly below the number of troops that were in Iraq in 2003. These numbers are likely to remain well above 100,000 until 2010.
Instead of sending soldiers stationed in cities home, the military has been expanding and building new bases
in rural areas to accommodate soldiers affected by the June 30
deadline. And Congress just passed a war-spending bill that includes
more funding for military construction inside Iraq.
The implications of the June 30 pullout are manifest: As Iraqis
grapple with increasing responsibility for the security of their
country and American military leaders search for avenues to project
their influence, withdrawal from urban areas will set important
precedents for the proposed full withdrawal of American forces.
The ability of Iraqi and U.S. commanders to subvert the SOFA and
extend the stay of U.S. troops in Iraqi cities past the June 30
deadline does not bode well for the other withdrawal deadlines laid out
in the agreement. Moreover, the vague language of the agreement lends
itself to the possibility that U.S. forces will remain in Iraq past the
December 31, 2011 deadline.
This all may be for naught, however, as a referendum on the SOFA is
scheduled for July 30 in Iraq. Despite attempts by the Iraqi cabinet to
postpone the vote, lawmakers think a delay is unlikely. The measure is
likely to lose if it goes to popular vote given the widespread
opposition to the SOFA in Iraq, which is seen as legitimizing the U.S.
occupation until 2011. According to the latest polls, published in the
Brookings Institution's Iraq Index,
73% of Iraqis oppose the presence of coalition forces. If the SOFA is
struck down by the vote, U.S. forces could be forced out of Iraq
immediately as the forces would not be legally protected.
The referendum could create big problems for the Obama administration, which has quietly discouraged the Iraqi government
from holding it. The pressure from the administration is inconsistent
with their goals of promoting democracy in Iraq. The people, who have
been forced to live under occupation for the past six years, deserve a
chance to have their voices heard.
Obama campaigned on a promise to leave Iraq. Yet the response to the
June 30th deadline, the lack of support for the referendum, and the
passage of another $70 billion for the war are stark indicators of what
the real Iraq policy may be.