SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FREE NEWSLETTER
Daily news & progressive opinion—funded by the people, not the corporations—delivered straight to your inbox.
5
#000000
#FFFFFF
5
#000000
#FFFFFF
MoveOn members pile white roses on the National Mall to memorialize the tens of thousands of coronavirus deaths in the United States. The roses sit at the foot of a large screen displaying a video of President Donald Trump praising his response to the pandemic and a banner on May 13, 2020 in Washington, DC.. (Photo: Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images for MoveOn)
Lockdown Delays Contributed to Massive US Death Toll, Says Modeling, Suggesting Lessons to Be Learned as States Reopen
Implementing social distancing policies two weeks earlier could have saved nearly 54,000 lives, the new study found.
May 21, 2020
As U.S. states move to reopen their economies and loosen restrictions put in place to stem the spread of Covid-19, new modeling released Thursday shows a majority of the U.S. deaths thus far from the coronavirus could have been prevented had social distancing policies been implemented more quickly.
The epidemiological modeling (pdf) from Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health researchers looked at the virus's national spread through May 3, 2020, at which point deaths had passed 65,000.
The researchers found nearly 62% of reported infections--703,000 cases--and 55% of deaths--over 35,000 people--could have been avoided if the same control measures implemented mid-March were enacted just one week earlier.
Implementing those measures two weeks earlier, the modeling found, could have led to an 84% reduction in total cases--960,937 cases--and a nearly 83% reduction in deaths--53,990 people.
"Our findings underscore the importance of early intervention and aggressive response in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic," wrote the researchers.
Epidemiologist and corresponding author of the study Jeffrey Shaman spoke with CNN Wednesday about the new study and said that "it has implications going forward."
While reopening, said Shaman, "we have to maintain control of this virus. And as we loosen these restrictions, it's possible we could have the growth of the virus in a lot of communities if we're not careful--if social distancing practices lapse, if people aren't wearing face masks as they start to go to businesses and restaurants and theaters."
"If we don't monitor this and if we don't recognize it really early and jump on it, it's going to jump out of control again," Shaman said. "We're going to have problems again. We're going to have growth that's beyond our expectations and we're going to see surges of people coming into hospitals again."
The Columbia University Department of Surgery, sharing the New York Times's coverage of the new research, tweeted Thursday: "We must heed our own warnings. Absorb this data. Wear a mask. As states reopen, don't let the nonsense cloud your judgement."
The modeling comes as a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll shows (pdf) that a majority of Americans--77%--say they are concerned about a second wave of Covid infections hitting as states start to reopen this month. While that concern was expressed by most Democrats--93%--55% of Republicans also expressed worries about an upcoming second wave.
The poll also found that 67% of respondents believe it will take more than six months for their lives to return to a sense of normal.
As of this writing, there are over 1.5 million confirmed cases of Covid-19 and 93,558 Covid deaths in the U.S.
An Urgent Message From Our Co-Founder
Dear Common Dreams reader, The U.S. is on a fast track to authoritarianism like nothing I've ever seen. Meanwhile, corporate news outlets are utterly capitulating to Trump, twisting their coverage to avoid drawing his ire while lining up to stuff cash in his pockets. That's why I believe that Common Dreams is doing the best and most consequential reporting that we've ever done. Our small but mighty team is a progressive reporting powerhouse, covering the news every day that the corporate media never will. Our mission has always been simple: To inform. To inspire. And to ignite change for the common good. Now here's the key piece that I want all our readers to understand: None of this would be possible without your financial support. That's not just some fundraising cliche. It's the absolute and literal truth. We don't accept corporate advertising and never will. We don't have a paywall because we don't think people should be blocked from critical news based on their ability to pay. Everything we do is funded by the donations of readers like you. Will you donate now to help power the nonprofit, independent reporting of Common Dreams? Thank you for being a vital member of our community. Together, we can keep independent journalism alive when it’s needed most. - Craig Brown, Co-founder |
Our work is licensed under Creative Commons (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0). Feel free to republish and share widely.
As U.S. states move to reopen their economies and loosen restrictions put in place to stem the spread of Covid-19, new modeling released Thursday shows a majority of the U.S. deaths thus far from the coronavirus could have been prevented had social distancing policies been implemented more quickly.
The epidemiological modeling (pdf) from Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health researchers looked at the virus's national spread through May 3, 2020, at which point deaths had passed 65,000.
The researchers found nearly 62% of reported infections--703,000 cases--and 55% of deaths--over 35,000 people--could have been avoided if the same control measures implemented mid-March were enacted just one week earlier.
Implementing those measures two weeks earlier, the modeling found, could have led to an 84% reduction in total cases--960,937 cases--and a nearly 83% reduction in deaths--53,990 people.
"Our findings underscore the importance of early intervention and aggressive response in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic," wrote the researchers.
Epidemiologist and corresponding author of the study Jeffrey Shaman spoke with CNN Wednesday about the new study and said that "it has implications going forward."
While reopening, said Shaman, "we have to maintain control of this virus. And as we loosen these restrictions, it's possible we could have the growth of the virus in a lot of communities if we're not careful--if social distancing practices lapse, if people aren't wearing face masks as they start to go to businesses and restaurants and theaters."
"If we don't monitor this and if we don't recognize it really early and jump on it, it's going to jump out of control again," Shaman said. "We're going to have problems again. We're going to have growth that's beyond our expectations and we're going to see surges of people coming into hospitals again."
The Columbia University Department of Surgery, sharing the New York Times's coverage of the new research, tweeted Thursday: "We must heed our own warnings. Absorb this data. Wear a mask. As states reopen, don't let the nonsense cloud your judgement."
The modeling comes as a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll shows (pdf) that a majority of Americans--77%--say they are concerned about a second wave of Covid infections hitting as states start to reopen this month. While that concern was expressed by most Democrats--93%--55% of Republicans also expressed worries about an upcoming second wave.
The poll also found that 67% of respondents believe it will take more than six months for their lives to return to a sense of normal.
As of this writing, there are over 1.5 million confirmed cases of Covid-19 and 93,558 Covid deaths in the U.S.
As U.S. states move to reopen their economies and loosen restrictions put in place to stem the spread of Covid-19, new modeling released Thursday shows a majority of the U.S. deaths thus far from the coronavirus could have been prevented had social distancing policies been implemented more quickly.
The epidemiological modeling (pdf) from Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health researchers looked at the virus's national spread through May 3, 2020, at which point deaths had passed 65,000.
The researchers found nearly 62% of reported infections--703,000 cases--and 55% of deaths--over 35,000 people--could have been avoided if the same control measures implemented mid-March were enacted just one week earlier.
Implementing those measures two weeks earlier, the modeling found, could have led to an 84% reduction in total cases--960,937 cases--and a nearly 83% reduction in deaths--53,990 people.
"Our findings underscore the importance of early intervention and aggressive response in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic," wrote the researchers.
Epidemiologist and corresponding author of the study Jeffrey Shaman spoke with CNN Wednesday about the new study and said that "it has implications going forward."
While reopening, said Shaman, "we have to maintain control of this virus. And as we loosen these restrictions, it's possible we could have the growth of the virus in a lot of communities if we're not careful--if social distancing practices lapse, if people aren't wearing face masks as they start to go to businesses and restaurants and theaters."
"If we don't monitor this and if we don't recognize it really early and jump on it, it's going to jump out of control again," Shaman said. "We're going to have problems again. We're going to have growth that's beyond our expectations and we're going to see surges of people coming into hospitals again."
The Columbia University Department of Surgery, sharing the New York Times's coverage of the new research, tweeted Thursday: "We must heed our own warnings. Absorb this data. Wear a mask. As states reopen, don't let the nonsense cloud your judgement."
The modeling comes as a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll shows (pdf) that a majority of Americans--77%--say they are concerned about a second wave of Covid infections hitting as states start to reopen this month. While that concern was expressed by most Democrats--93%--55% of Republicans also expressed worries about an upcoming second wave.
The poll also found that 67% of respondents believe it will take more than six months for their lives to return to a sense of normal.
As of this writing, there are over 1.5 million confirmed cases of Covid-19 and 93,558 Covid deaths in the U.S.
We've had enough. The 1% own and operate the corporate media. They are doing everything they can to defend the status quo, squash dissent and protect the wealthy and the powerful. The Common Dreams media model is different. We cover the news that matters to the 99%. Our mission? To inform. To inspire. To ignite change for the common good. How? Nonprofit. Independent. Reader-supported. Free to read. Free to republish. Free to share. With no advertising. No paywalls. No selling of your data. Thousands of small donations fund our newsroom and allow us to continue publishing. Can you chip in? We can't do it without you. Thank you.