May, 19 2016, 02:00pm EDT

TPP Study Projects Worsening Trade Balances for 16 of 25 U.S. Economic Sectors, Overall U.S. Trade Deficit Increase
Despite ITC Reliance on Model that Has Systematically Overstated Benefits of Trade Pacts Relative to Outcomes
WASHINGTON
Today the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) released a study on the potential impacts of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The report:
- Estimates a worsening balance of trade for 16 out of 25 U.S. agriculture (p. 124), manufacturing (p. 228), and services (p. 340) sectors that the ITC selected to feature. This includes vehicles, wheat, corn, autoparts, titanium products, chemicals, seafood, textiles and apparel, rice and even financial service. Autoparts would be hard hit with employment projected to decrease by 0.3 percent.
- Estimates the TPP will increase the U.S. global trade deficit by $21.7 billion by 2032.
- Projects even the U.S. services trade balance will worsen by 2032 as service imports of $7 billion swamp the estimated increase in exports of $4.8 billion (p. 35).
- Temporarily disregarding the fact that the ITC has underestimated the increase in the U.S. trade deficit caused by almost every pact it has assessed, the trade deficit increase the ITC does project from TPP implementation would equate to 129,484 American job losses, counting both exports and imports, according to the latest administration trade-jobs ratio. This makes even more curious the ITC estimate that the TPP would raise employment levels by 0.07 percent (128,000 jobs) in 2032.
- Estimates a decline in output for U.S. manufacturing/natural resources/ energy of $10.8 billion as exports would increase by $15.2 billion and imports would increase by $39.2 billion by 2032.
- Estimates tiny U.S. economic growth gains (42.7 billion or 0.15 percent) and income gains ($57.3 billion or 0.23 percent) by 2032. In other words, the ITC projects that the United States would be as wealthy on January 1, 2032 with TPP as it would be on February 15, 2032 without the TPP.
- Notes concern that the TPP would empower more foreign corporations to sue the U.S. government in private tribunals to demand taxpayer compensation over U.S. laws they claim violate their TPP rights and that the Investor State Dispute Settlement System is expanded to allow new grounds for financial service firms to challenge domestic policies (p. 36).
Statement of Lori Wallach, director of Public Citizen's Global Trade Watch, on the Report:
"This report spotlights how damaging the TPP would be for most Americans' jobs and wages given it concludes 16 out of 25 U.S. agriculture, manufacturing, and services sectors spotlighted by the ITC would see a worsening trade balance while the "upside" projection is miniscule gains in economic growth despite these findings being based on the same widely criticized methodology and unrealistic assumptions that have resulted in past ITC reports systematically overstating the benefits from trade deals that ended up causing serious damage.
Given that the ITC's past studies on pending trade pacts have usually projected improvements in the U.S. trade balance and gains for specific economic sectors but the opposite occurred, that this study projects an increase in the U.S. trade deficit and losses for 16 of 25 U.S. economic sectors suggests that if ever implemented, the TPP could really be disastrous."
How the ITC's Faulty Methodology Has Systematically Led to Overly Optimistic Projections
The actual outcomes of past trade pacts have been significantly more negative than ITC projections generated using the same methodology employed for the TPP study. This makes today's unusually negative ITC findings on the TPP especially ominous.
NAFTA: U.S.-Mexico Trade | ||
1993 - Baseline | ITC Projection | 2015 - Actual |
$2.6 billion goods surplus | $10.6 billion goods and | $57 billion goods and |
China-WTO: U.S.-China Trade in Goods and Services | ||
2000 - Baseline | ITC Projection | 2015 - Actual |
$113 billion deficit | $120 billion deficit | $340 billion deficit |
U.S.-Korea FTA: Trade in Goods | ||
2011 - Baseline | ITC Projection | 2015 - Actual |
$15.6 billion deficit | $10.6 billion deficit | $28.5 billion deficit |
The ITC's TPP report uses the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that had led to past ITC trade pact projections being entirely unrelated to actual outcomes by simply assuming away the very results that have often occurred under past pacts: long-term job loss, trade deficit increases and currency devaluations.
By design, the ITC CGE model assumed the U.S. trade balance would not change and that overall U.S. employment levels would remain constant - that workers who lose jobs will simply obtain new jobs in other sectors where wages are presumed to increase. Implicit in the assumption that the trade balance does not change is the assumption of flexible exchange rates. But in reality, currency manipulation is a significant problem among some of the TPP countries. The U.S. Department of Treasury just recently included TPP nation Japan on its new Monitoring List in its semi-annual report on "Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partners of the United States."
When Tufts University economists employed a model that allowed for job loss and increases in income inequality, they concluded that the TPP would reduce U.S. GDP by 0.54 percent over a decade and cost 448,000 American jobs. The Tufts findings spotlight just how drastically the assumptions baked into a CGE model used for the TPP study can affect the outcomes; the Tufts economists actually employed the Peterson Institute trade flow simulation data. They plugged the Peterson findings on import and export levels at full TPP implementation derived from one set of unrealistic assumptions into a model that applies more realistic assumptions about how trade flow changes affect growth and employment - and found that the TPP would cost hundreds of thousands of American jobs and drag down growth rates.
Public Citizen is a nonprofit consumer advocacy organization that champions the public interest in the halls of power. We defend democracy, resist corporate power and work to ensure that government works for the people - not for big corporations. Founded in 1971, we now have 500,000 members and supporters throughout the country.
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As Trump Targets Chicago, Mayor Fights His 'Tyranny' With Executive Order
"We will protect our Constitution, we will protect our city, and we will protect our people," Mayor Brandon Johnson declared. "We do not want to see tanks in our streets. We do not want to see families ripped apart."
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Continuing the battle against US President Donald Trump's "erratic and petulant behavior," Democratic Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson on Saturday signed an executive order responding to the Republican's threats to deploy federal immigration agents and potentially National Guard and active-duty troops to Illinois' biggest city.
Just before signing the order, Johnson told journalists that he would have preferred to work with City Council to pass legislation, "but unfortunately we do not have the luxury of time," given "credible reports that we have days, not weeks, before our city sees some type of militarized activity by the federal government."
Asked about which specific reports he was referring to, the mayor just said that the deployment could occur as soon as Friday, so he had to take "immediate, drastic action to protect our people from federal overreach."
"We will protect our Constitution, we will protect our city, and we will protect our people," he declared. "We do not want to see tanks in our streets. We do not want to see families ripped apart. We do not want grandmothers thrown into the back of unmarked vans. We don't want to see homeless Chicagoans harassed or disappeared by federal agents. We don't want to see Chicagoans arrested for sitting on their porch. It's not who we are as a city, and that's not who we are as a nation."
A spokesperson for the suburban Naval Station Great Lakes confirmed to Military Times earlier this week that the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has contacted the base about possibly using it for immigration enforcement activities.
The Chicago Sun-Times obtained an email in which the station's commanding officer, Navy Cpt. Stephen Yargosz, told his leadership team: "These operations are similar to what occurred in Los Angeles earlier this summer. Same DHS team."
According to the newspaper, Yargosz added in his Monday email that "this morning I received a call that there is the potential also to support National Guard units. Not many details on this right now. Mainly a lot of concerns and questions."
In addition to targeting California's largest city, Trump has recently federalized Washington, DC's police force and deployed the National Guard there—and he has threatened to similarly target other Democrat-led cities, despite their falling crime rates.
As the Sun-Times reported Saturday:
White House officials have distinctly said the operation in Chicago would mirror Los Angeles more than DC, which saw thousands of National Guard troops and hundreds of active-duty Marines—some of whom are stationed there through November—activated to quell protests against immigration raids.
"If these Democrats focused on fixing crime in their own cities instead of doing publicity stunts to criticize the president, their communities would be much safer," wrote White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson. "[Democrats] should listen to fellow Democrat Mayor Muriel Bowser who recently celebrated the Trump administration's success in driving down violent crime in Washington, DC."
Johnson's order against Trump's "tyranny" states that the mayor demands the president "and any agents acting under his authority stand down from any attempts to deploy the US armed forces—including the National Guard—in Chicago."
"The city will pursue all available legal and legislative avenues to counter coordinated efforts from the federal government that violate the rights of the city and its residents, including the Constitutional rights to peacefully assemble and protest, and the right to due process," the document warns.
The order also establishes the Protecting Chicago Initiative, which will include making information regarding residents' rights and federal government action available; coordinating efforts to identify and address community needs; and regularly submitting public records requests to DHS, including Immigration and Customs Enforcement as well as Customs and Border Protection.
The document states that the Chicago Police Department "shall remain a locally controlled law enforcement agency" under the authority of the city and the mayor, no CPD personnel shall participate in civil immigration enforcement, and all officers, "when engaged in any law enforcement, crowd management, or public safety operations, will wear department-authorized uniforms."
It further says that "CPD officers are prohibited from intentionally disguising or concealing their identities from the public by wearing any mask, covering, or disguise while performing their official duties," and "all other law enforcement officers, including federal agents, as well as members of the military operating in Chicago, are urged to adhere to these requirements to protect public safety and promote accountability."
Under Trump, federal immigration officials have often donned masks—which has led to people targeted for arrest questioning whether they are encountering real agents, as well as criminals impersonating agents.
During Saturday's signing event, Johnson said that his office has communicated with Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle, and the state's congressional delegation, and "we are in complete alignment."
The mayor's move won praise from the Chicago Teachers Union, which said in a statement that CTU "stands in firm opposition to the president's threat to occupy our city with federal forces and terrorize our communities. As educators working and living in every one of Chicago's 77 neighborhoods, we know that safety does not come from federal forces invading our city. Real safety comes from the types of community investments that Mayor Johnson has made into public health, public education, summer youth jobs, affordable housing, small business development, and mental health care."
Noting Trump's recent attacks on Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, the union said that "if Trump wants to spend a million dollars a day in Chicago, he can send it for crossing guards to help our children move safely across this city, for Safe Passage to make sure that our children have a friendly face to see on their journey back and forth to home, for SNAP benefits to make sure our children have the nutrition they need to thrive and flourish, for special education and dual language supports for our students, and for healthcare so their families can afford the medicine and care they need."
"The CTU applauds Mayor Johnson for taking steps to protect the rights of Chicagoans, and to not be conscripted into Trump's threatened occupation of our city," the union continued. "We stand in solidarity with all of our fellow Chicagoans, as we say no to occupation and demand that our federal tax dollars be used to provide the services our communities actually need: healthcare, SNAP, and fully funded schools to our communities, not to send federal troops to terrorize them."
"This is why we will join tens of thousands of Chicagoans on Monday at 11:00 am, for the Workers Over Billionaires march and rally," the CTU added. "This Labor Day, we will be in the streets of our city, marching peacefully, to say NO to Trump, his occupation, and the billionaire takeover of our country."
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As one Houthi leader pledged that "we shall take vengeance," Israel's defense minister said that "this is just the beginning."
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Yemen's Houthis confirmed Saturday that an Israeli airstrike Thursday in the country's capital, Sanaa, killed "several" government officials, including Prime Minister Ahmed al-Rahawi.
The Houthis, also known as Ansar Allah, have targeted Israel and ships in the Red Sea over the US-backed Israeli assault on the Gaza Strip, which has been increasingly denounced as genocide. Israel and the United States—under both the Biden and Trump administrations—have responded to the Houthis' Red Sea actions by bombing Yemen, where an ongoing civil war began in 2014.
As The Associated Press reported Saturday:
Thursday's Israeli strike took place as the rebel-owned television station was broadcasting a speech by Abdul Malik al-Houthi, the secretive leader of the rebel group in which he was sharing updates on the latest Gaza developments and vowing retaliation against Israel. Senior Houthi officials used to gather to watch al-Houthi's prerecorded speeches.
Al-Rahawi wasn't part of the inner circle around Abdul Malik al-Houthi that runs the military and strategic affairs of the group. His government, like the previous ones, was tasked with running the day-to-day civilian affairs in Sanaa and other Houthi-held areas.
Although the full list of Houthi officials killed in the strike has not been released, Reuters reported that unnamed sources confirmed that "the energy, foreign, and information ministers were among those killed."
The news agency also noted that while Al-Rahawi became prime minister around a year ago, "the de facto leader of the government was his deputy, Mohamed Moftah, who was assigned on Saturday to carry out the prime minister's duties."
In a Saturday statement, the Houthi government affirmed that it would continue to "fulfill its role" and "institutions will continue to provide their services to the steadfast, patient, struggling Yemeni people. It will not be affected, no matter the extent of the calamity... and the blood of the great martyrs will be fuel and motivation to continue on the same path."
"We affirm to our great Yemeni people, to the oppressed Palestinian people, to all the sons of our nation, and to all free people in the world, that we continue our authentic stance in supporting and aiding the people of Gaza, and in building our armed forces and developing their capabilities to face all challenges and dangers, just as our great Yemeni people are present in all fields and arenas with all determination, will, and faith," the government added, according to a translation from Drop Site News.
Both US President Donald Trump's administration and the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—a fugitive of the International Criminal Court for his country's conduct in Gaza—consider the Houthis a terrorist organization.
The Thursday strike came nearly a week after the Israel Defense Forces said that it intercepted multiple ballistic missiles launched by the Houthis, and at least one contained cluster munitions. Citing the IDF and Hebrew media, The Times of Israel reported Saturday that a missile fired by the Houthis overnight "fell short" of Israel, instead falling in Saudi Arabia.
The newspaper also shared Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz's response to the Houthis confirming Al-Rahawi's assassination. He said that "two days ago, we dealt an unprecedented crushing blow to the senior officials in the military-political leadership of the Houthi terrorist organization in Yemen, in a bold and brilliant action by the IDF."
"The destiny of Yemen is the destiny of Tehran—and this is just the beginning," Katz continued. "The Houthis will learn the hard way that whoever threatens and harms Israel will be harmed sevenfold—and they will not determine when this ends."
Meanwhile, according to Al Jazeera, Mahdi al-Mashat, a Yemeni politician and military officer who serves as the chairman of the Supreme Political Council of the Houthis, said in a video message that "we shall take vengeance, and we shall forge from the depths of wounds a victory."
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Make America Healthy Again is "a great slogan," the senator wrote. "The problem is that since coming into office President Trump and Mr. Kennedy have done exactly the opposite."
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"Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the secretary of health and human services, is endangering the health of the American people now and into the future. He must resign."
That's how US Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee Ranking Member Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) began a New York Times op-ed on Saturday, amid mounting calls for Kennedy to leave the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), by choice or force, following the ouster of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Susan Monarez.
As Sanders detailed in the Times—and a Thursday letter to Senate HELP Committee Chair Bill Cassidy (R-La.) demanding a congressional probe—Monarez was fired after reportedly refusing to "act as a rubber stamp for his dangerous policies." Her exit led to resignations and a staff walkout at the CDC, which is now being led by Jim O'Neill, a Kennedy aide and biotech investor.
Sanders and other lawmakers—including former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), a polio survivor and the only Republican to vote against Kennedy's confirmation in February—have long warned about the consequences of letting RFK Jr. hold a key health policy position in President Donald Trump's second administration.
"Mr. Kennedy and the rest of the Trump administration tell us, over and over, that they want to Make America Healthy Again," Sanders noted Saturday. "That's a great slogan. I agree with it. The problem is that since coming into office President Trump and Mr. Kennedy have done exactly the opposite."
"Despite the overwhelming opposition of the medical community, Secretary Kennedy has continued his long-standing crusade against vaccines and his advocacy of conspiracy theories that have been rejected repeatedly by scientific experts," the senator wrote. "It is absurd to have to say this in 2025, but vaccines are safe and effective. That, of course, is not just my view. Far more important, it is the overwhelming consensus of the medical and scientific communities."
Sanders pointed to guidance from the American Academy of Pediatrics, American Medical Association, and World Health Organization, and called out Kennedy's comments on autism, Covid-19 and polio vaccines, and immunizations in general.
"The reality is that Secretary Kennedy has profited from and built a career on sowing mistrust in vaccines. Now, as head of HHS, he is using his authority to launch a full-blown war on science, on public health, and on truth itself," he wrote, warning that in the "short term, it will be harder for Americans to get lifesaving vaccines," including for Covid.
However, "Covid is just the beginning. Mr. Kennedy's next target may be the childhood immunization schedule, the list of recommended vaccines that children receive to protect them from diseases like measles, chickenpox. and polio," the senator continued. He also sounded the alarm over the secretary "defunding the research that could help us prepare for the next pandemic."
Sanders, a leading advocate of Medicare for All, also took aim at the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that Trump signed last month.
"America's healthcare system is already dysfunctional and wildly expensive, and yet the Trump administration will be throwing an estimated 15 million people off their health insurance through a cut of over $1 trillion to Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act," he noted. "This cut is also expected to result in the closing of or the decline in services at hundreds of nursing homes, hospitals, and community health centers. As a result of cuts to the Affordable Care Act, health insurance costs will soar for millions of Americans. That is not Making America Healthy Again."
"Secretary Kennedy is putting Americans' lives in danger, and he must resign," Sanders concluded. "In his place, President Trump must listen to doctors and scientists and nominate a health secretary and a CDC director who will protect the health and well-being of the American people, not carry out dangerous policies based on conspiracy theories."
Bernie Sanders is right—RFK Jr. must resign. His leadership is an assault on science, public health, and truth. We’re not just talking politics; we’re talking lives. #ResignKennedy #ScienceFirst”www.nytimes.com/2025/08/30/o...
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— Elizabeth (@elizathewell.bsky.social) August 30, 2025 at 10:30 AM
Doctors, journalists, and others praised the senator's op-ed, with Trauma surgeon Mark Hoofnagle saying that "Bernie nails it."
Pennsylvania State University professor and A Desire Called America author Christian Haines wrote on the social media platform Bluesky that the piece was "clear and incisive, though I wish it didn't need to be said."
Also sharing the post on Bluesky, former Times labor reporter Steven Greenhouse said: "It's delusional for anyone to think that RFK Jr. and Donald Trump are making America healthy again. With Kennedy's war against science, truth, and vaccines and Trump's war against Medicaid, their movement should be called MAKING AMERICA UNHEALTHY AGAIN."
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