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Donald Trump promised on the campaign trail in 2016 that, if elected president, he would bring about a rapid and unprecedented decline in the U.S. trade deficit.
But new figures released by the Commerce Department on Thursday--nearly four years after Trump's victory in the 2016 presidential election--show that the trade deficit soared to a 12-year high in July due in large part to a surge in imports, bringing the total negative trade balance in the first seven months of 2020 to $340 billion.
"The unexpectedly large growth in the trade deficit is especially notable given that trade flows have declined overall because of the global Covid-19 crisis."
--Lori Wallach, Public Citizen
"Trump pledged to eliminate the trade deficit and end job outsourcing, but the overall 2020 deficit is on track to be larger than when he took office, and his Labor Department has certified more than 300,000 American jobs were lost to outsourcing and imports during his presidency," Lori Wallach, director of Public Citizen's Global Trade Watch, said in a statement.
Wallach noted that the 300,000 job-loss number is likely an underestimate given that it only "reflects the number of workers whose trade-related job losses were approved for Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) retraining and other benefits."
"The July 2020 deficit is the largest monthly deficit since July 2008, during the global financial crisis and related recession," said Wallach. "The unexpectedly large growth in the trade deficit is especially notable given that trade flows have declined overall because of the global Covid-19 crisis."
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden--who Trump has hit over his support for the job-killing North American Free Trade Agreement in the 1990s and now-dead Trans-Pacific Partnership under the Obama administration--highlighted the surging trade deficit on Twitter, writing that "American workers can't afford another four years of his failed leadership."
"In 2016, President Trump promised to reduce the trade deficit and said: 'You will see a drop like you've never seen before,'" Biden tweeted. "The reality? It's the highest it's been in 12 years."
Seth Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, echoed Biden, writing that the new deficit numbers reveal the worthlessness of Trump's lofty campaign-trail promises.
"Trump is a fraud, exhibit one billion," tweeted Hanlon.
As the Associated Press reported Thursday, the new Commerce Department statistics show that "despite a number of high-profile trade battles and a renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico, America's trade deficits have remained stubbornly high" throughout Trump's presidency.
"For July, the deficit with China in goods totaled $31.6 billion, an 11.5% increase from the June imbalance," AP noted. "The goods deficit with Mexico hit a record high of $10.6 in July... The United States ran a deficit in goods trade of $80.1 billion in July, the highest on record."
The July trade deficit numbers come less than a month after a report by the Economic Policy Institute (EPI) found that despite Trump's repeated vows to "bring back" U.S. manufacturing jobs, the president's first-term trade agenda and disastrous handling of the coronavirus pandemic have "wiped out much of the last decade's job gains in U.S. manufacturing."
"The Trump administration has taken credit for 'reshoring' manufacturing jobs, but the data show that isn't true," said Robert Scott, senior economist and director of trade and manufacturing research at EPI. "Nearly 1,800 factories have disappeared under Trump between 2016 and 2018."
"Additionally, the U.S. trade deficit in manufactured goods rose significantly between 2016 and 2019," Scott added. "In fact, the real U.S. trade deficit has increased in every year since 2016, reducing GDP growth by roughly 0.25% annually over the past three years. Compounded with the devastation left by the coronavirus pandemic, the blue collar manufacturing workers need serious help from policymakers."
Warning that President Donald Trump cannot be defeated by an establishment Democrat running a "same old, same old type of campaign," Sen. Bernie Sanders said in an interview with the Los Angeles Times editorial board published Thursday that Trump would have a field day with former Vice President Joe Biden's record of support for the Iraq War, job-killing trade deals, and other destructive policies.
"If you're a Donald Trump and you got Biden having voted for the war in Iraq, Biden having voted for these terrible, in my view, trade agreements, Biden having voted for the bankruptcy bill. Trump will eat his lunch."
--Sen. Bernie Sanders
" Joe Biden is a personal friend of mine, so I'm not here to, you know, to attack him," Sanders said. "But my God, if you are, if you're a Donald Trump and you got Biden having voted for the war in Iraq, Biden having voted for these terrible, in my view, trade agreements, Biden having voted for the bankruptcy bill. Trump will eat his lunch."
The Los Angeles Times interview was not the first time Sanders has distinguished his own record from Biden's by highlighting the former vice president's support for the 2003 invasion of Iraq. During a Democratic primary debate in September, Sanders noted that, unlike Biden, he "never believed what Cheney and Bush said about Iraq."
"I voted against the war in Iraq, and helped lead the opposition," the Vermont senator said.
Sanders told the Times that defeating Trump in 2020 will require a candidate who embraces "ideas that are going to excite and energize millions of people who right now are not particularly active in politics, and who may not vote at all"--and the Vermont senator argued he is the Democratic contender best positioned to deliver such a campaign.
"The reason I believe that I am the strongest candidate, and the reason I believe our approach is right is if you want a large voter turnout, if we understand that there are tens of millions of people in this country who don't vote, who've kind of given up on the political process... I think I am by far the strongest candidate to reach out to those people," Sanders said. "I think I'm the strongest candidate to bring together a multiracial coalition of African Americans, of Latinos, of Asians."
Though Trump polls as one of the most unpopular presidents in U.S. history, Sanders warned against underestimating him, as many did in the 2016 election.
"Anyone who underestimates Donald Trump as a candidate, for a variety of reasons, will be very mistaken," said Sanders. "He is going to be a very, very strong candidate. He certainly has a very strong base. He will have unlimited amounts of money to campaign on. He is a pathological liar. He will merge in an unprecedented way agencies of government with his campaign, because he doesn't particularly believe in the rule of law. So he is going to be a very, very tough opponent."
"The only way that you beat Trump," Sanders added, "is by having an unprecedented campaign, an unprecedentedly large voter turnout."
If the world can be seen as a game of Risk, the global meat industry--with the help of the Trump administration--just got Japan. While the President touted last week's deal as aiding struggling U.S. farmers hurt by trade fights, the real winners are global players like the Chinese-owned Smithfield, Brazil-based JBS and Cargill, who have lobbied together for years to further pry open Japan's market for their beef and pork.
The real winners are global players like the Chinese-owned Smithfield, Brazil-based JBS and Cargill, who have lobbied together for years to further pry open Japan's market for their beef and pork.
The latest win for these big meat goliaths comes on the heels of the recently completed EU-Japan trade deal, and the completion of what was previously called the Trans Pacific Partnership (the 11-nation CPTPP) - an agreement that the Trump administration pulled out of. Both deals lowered Japanese tariffs on agriculture imports, aiding these companies' operations around the world. The latest deal with Japan will lock in many of the same wins for these global corporations' U.S.-based operations.
Earlier this year, U.S. and Japanese food and farm groups (including IATP) raised concerns that an agreement would only benefit global agribusiness. In a letter, the groups criticized a deal "that serves only to open our respective markets and strengthen corporate control over our rural economies. Market openings under previous trade agreements have contributed to the failure of independent family farms and increases in corporate concentration in agriculture, as well as environmental degradation and weakened standards for food safety."
Similar objections were raised during the fight over the original TPP. In 2016, more than 160 farm, food, rural and faith groups ripped the TPP for serving the interests of global trading firms over farmers. Part of the pushback against these deals is the continued growth in rural communities of controversial factory farms (operations with thousands, if not tens of thousands, of animals producing large amounts of manure) primarily to feed exporting agribusiness companies. These operations are facing rising opposition from rural residents, including independent family farmers themselves. Rural communities suffer from air and water pollution associated with factory farm manure lagoons, while independent producers are driven out of the market.
Also like the TPP and the proposed new North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) agreement, the Japan agreement completely ignores climate change. This omission represents another win for global meat companies, who are coming under increasing fire for their role in rising greenhouse gas emissions. Research published last year by IATP and GRAIN found that the top five global meat and dairy companies combined were responsible for more GHGs than fossil fuel companies like ExxonMobil, Shell and BP.
Instead, the limited U.S.-Japan deal covers agricultural products and a narrow set of industrial goods (like machine tools, bicycles and musical instruments). There is also a separate executive agreement on digital trade that appears to be lifted from the new NAFTA. Also referenced in public announcements by both countries is a verbal commitment from the Trump administration not to apply additional tariffs on Japanese auto parts entering the U.S. - at least in the immediate term.
Japan is the United States' third biggest agriculture export market according to the U.S. Trade Representative, and the country's biggest market for exported pork, beef and wheat. The deal lowers Japanese tariffs on those and a number of other U.S. agricultural exports to levels previously agreed to by Japan under the CPTPP.
Unlike the TPP, Japan's rice market was not included in the deal. And five House members have written to the USTR criticizing the dairy parts of the agreement, arguing that it provides less market access than enjoyed by dairy companies exporting to Japan from the CPTPP countries and the EU. The deal also opens up the U.S. market for more Japanese beef (a relatively small part of the U.S. market), while reducing 42 tariff lines for food and agriculture imports from Japan.
The Trump administration believes that because the agreement only involves tariff reductions in a small number of sectors, it does not require Congressional approval. The final text of the deal has still not been published. The secrecy of the negotiations with Japan, including the exclusion of Congress throughout, represents another step backward in efforts to make trade negotiations more transparent, inclusive and accountable. The USTR's behind-closed-doors approach works well for plugged in multinationals like Cargill, Tyson and others well represented on its trade advisory committees.
The agreement is contingent on approval of the Japanese parliament, expected this fall, and would go into effect on January 1. According to the USTR, phase two of the negotiations will begin in the spring of 2020, and include other elements of the CPTPP, such as dispute resolution, investor protections and rules on food safety, intellectual property and government procurement. That phase will likely take much longer to reach agreement and if agreed to, would require Congressional involvement and approval. It is unclear how much appetite Japan actually has for a phase two negotiation - with their primary goal, the prevention of new auto-related tariffs, already achieved in this initial agreement.
The trade win for global meat companies is just the latest favor the Trump administration has awarded the industry. From speeding up pork processing line speeds, to refusing to include mandatory Country of Origin Labeling for meat in the new NAFTA, to directly handing the companies tens of millions of dollars as part of its trade aid program--the Trump administration is building quite a record of favoritism for these multinationals that now rivals its well-known allegiance to the fossil fuel industry.
As Sen. Bernie Sanders (CJR, 8/26/19) has recently noted, corporate ownership of media interferes with the core societal function of the press: reporting and investigating key issues at the intersection of public need and governance. And nowhere is that more critical than when it comes to climate. Due to their corporate conflicts of interest, trusted news authorities have diverted us from our primary responsibility--assuring a viable habitat for our children and grandchildren.
As a journalist who has worked both inside and outside of establishment media, I see influence as embedded in a corporate media culture rather than in isolated cases of CEO dictates. It happens in little ways, such as how an interviewer frames a question, and in big ways, like the decision to exclude a topic, a person or a group of people from the airwaves.

Like most US companies, news organizations are hierarchies, which people who have worked in corporate offices can readily understand. Given that "90% of the United States' media is controlled by five media conglomerates," the top executive at many news outfits is likely the CEO of a multinational corporation. The word comes down from the business execs to the company's division chiefs, as seen in countless movies (like the 1976 classic Network). This was how it was when I worked on primetime national news at CBS in the 1990s.
On the inside, it wasn't easy to see organizational bias, when job security and team work required overlooking it. The response to the heavily promoted primetime news pairing of two well-known anchors exemplified how news personnel learn to toe the line. The two anchors had zero chemistry, but no one mentioned it, as if an unwritten code had been instantly internalized. This dragged on for two years, pulling down the network's ratings.
Higher-ups would never offer editorial staff direct input on content. That's what the executive and middle management were for. Would these managers confide to their staff that the big guns gave them a certain direction? No. Whatever it was, they would present it as their own, and it would be adopted.
Within this culture, controlling the content goes on in whispers, frowns, headshakes and decisions made behind closed doors. If anyone strays into a verboten zone, as I did when I proposed a feature about Native Americans, those in the know privately communicate the ethos that is expected and allowed. "We never put American Indians on air because they talk too slow," a producer explained.
Despite such experiences, when I left CBS, I respected the many producers with whom I'd worked, many of whom are still employed at the various networks. That work experience honed editorial judgment in ways impossible to measure, for which I am infinitely grateful. It also showed me that organizational agendas and values can trump claims to objectivity.

Yet over a decade later, working in progressive online media, I was still astonished that several major stories I covered, were anywhere from underplayed to entirely absent from establishment news.
When I began to cover fracking in New York state in 2009, at first both 60 Minutes (11/14/10) and the New York Times (11/27/09, 10/29/11) covered it as a Hatfield/McCoy feud between upstate rural neighbors, rather than as an invasive industrial activity with a host of health and environmental repercussions.
During the critical years of the major fracking buildout from 2005 to 2016, the New York Times gave a prominent environmental platform to self-declared "climate champion" Andrew Revkin, whose reporting FAIR (Extra!, 2/10) called "a source of some comfort--and crowing--for the climate change denial crowd." His pro-industry stance on fracking and naysaying on methane impacts condoned an industrial expansion that has produced far-reaching environmental damage.
The Times' Ian Urbina (6/25/11) did invaluable reporting on fracking's faulty economic model. But in 2013, the paper of record closed its environmental desk, even as Inside Climate News (1/11/13) was reporting that "worldwide coverage of climate change continued a three-year slide."
MSNBC show hosts like Rachel Maddow and Chris Hayes rarely covered fracking, instead letting gas and oil industry ads reassert claims of safety. Nonprofit environmental groups, leading activists, along with a growing body of independent journalists filled the media void, including my own reporting at Huffington Post, AlterNet and EcoWatch.

In 2014, I began to report on the Transpacific Partnership (TTP) and other concurrent global trade agreements, which are often characterized as core to President Barack Obama's "legacy" (e.g., New York Times, 6/14/15; Washington Post, 6/24/15). The agreement's full provisions were never revealed to the public prior to the June 2015 vote granting absolute trade authority to Obama--authority that would have passed to Trump if the agreement had been ratified in late 2016, as Obama hoped.
In conducting multiple interviews with trade analysts, as well as following the protests in Europe and the resulting leaks of the contents, I learned from trade analyst William Waren (Connect the Dots, 1/28/15) that even prior to the TPP's passage and ratification, plans were underway for the buildout of fracking, gas and oil, and coal trade and global export freed by its anticipated passage.
Nothing within the unenforceable Paris Agreement would have prevented it. In fact, the Paris Agreement provisions were nonbinding, while the trade agreements that were being secretly negotiated concurrently, including the Trade in Services Agreement (TiSA), were designed to be binding, to "effectively trump whatever commitment is made in Paris," Waren revealed on Connect the Dots (12/9/15).
Further, the TPP's planned instatement of an international corporate tribunal with international legal authority over all nations would have mortally injured global democracies. In 2016, Mark Ruffalo summed up what was at stake in the fight: Expanding the Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) provisions in NAFTA via TPP
would block worldwide environmental and social progress while empowering corporations to undermine existing climate and environmental policies.
As we witness the Trump administration's deconstruction of US environmental regulatory infrastructure--appointment by appointment, policy by policy--let's appreciate that in defeating TPP and associated trade deals (thanks to the work of grassroots organizers and independent media), Americans dodged a bullet.
If the US had passed the TPP as planned during the 2016 lame duck session of Congress, both the US and all co-signers (a total of 12 countries) would have been contractually bound to a wholesale takedown of environmental regulations and economic barriers to fossil fuel development--as well as the loss of any right to challenge corporate rule or prevent health and environmental impacts. The climate impacts of the intended gas and oil buildout would likely have been devastating and decisive.

Nevertheless, the forward drive to pass the TPP occurred in a near void of corporate coverage. What had been negotiated behind closed doors with multinational corporations remained their business secrets. Prior to its authorization in June 2015, no mainstream outlet thoroughly investigated and disclosed the TPP's provisions. Obama's most memorable pro-TPP television appearance was singing about it with Jimmy Fallon. FAIR (6/11/16) called the enthused Vox coverage (6/10/16) of Obama's performance
a borderline parody of everything wrong with corporate-owned "new media": What we have here is a Comcast-funded website plugging a Comcast-owned TV show to promote a trade deal aggressively lobbied for by Comcast.
Both the New York Times and its liberal economist columnist, Paul Krugman, covered the TPP infrequently. Krugman (10/6/15) professed he was a "lukewarm opponent" of it, and minimized its importance. "We're not talking about a world-shaking deal here," he wrote (3/11/15) three months before the Senate granted Obama the authority to sign the final agreement without further consultation or deliberation.
Prior to the vote, a college friend of the MSNBC host Chris Hayes assured me that Hayes, a former environmental reporter for The Nation, would be deeply concerned about these trade deals. I was dubious, but she was insistent. With the contact she provided, I sent all of my TPP research and sources on to Hayes. I received no response.

Rather than cover the TPP, MSNBC went on to fire Ed Schultz, the sole show host who covered trade agreements. (Sadly, the 64-year-old Schultz died in 2018.) In surveying TPP coverage, Media Matters (2/4/15) found that Schultz was the exception in a near-total blackout by all three major networks. Week after week, Hayes and other MSNBC hosts devoted airtime to meticulously dissecting far more minor concerns.
As in any large organization, the firing and hiring of staff speaks volumes to surviving staff members about the owners' priorities. The unseen casualties among reporters of integrity, and the disservice to journalism, cannot be overestimated. Those working in corporate media get the message without anyone having to tell them, and highly paid show hosts have the most to lose.
The press' mission is to inform the citizenry and flag abuses to power, not promote special interests. When citizens blind themselves to a news organization's corporate entanglements, and trust the outlet to be truthful anyway, it is, to put it mildly, extraordinarily naive.
It's not about whether or not the public has access to a private conversation or confidential memo sent to editorial with a corporate dictate. The evidence is what's given airtime and what isn't over many years.
Was it just happenstance that MSNBC, for example, failed to cover the TPP after firing Ed Schultz? Comcast, the owner of MSNBC, sat at the table behind closed doors during the five-year long negotiations of the TPP's specific trade provisions.
Have MSNBC or any of its competitors uncovered Comcast's agenda for the trade agreements? What if concerns over intellectual property rights, for example, made it a corporate mission to pass a deal that also happened to radically hasten the climate tipping point? Should any company have that much power?
No business, no matter how sizeable, should have the right to subvert the actions and political choices necessary to address climate, as well as the activated movement capable of assuring that at long last we do what needs to be done. The only sane response is to support the movement, and the independent media outlets that provide a platform for ideas, facts, studies, polls, policy initiatives and disclosures outside the corporate media frame--and to overhaul the media to address this unfair use of public airwaves for gain and compromise as the world burns.
One of core elements of the proposed Green New Deal is a just transition--the creation of fair wage jobs that benefit communities, particularly those currently or formerly dependent on high polluting industries. In early July, a World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute panel ruled that renewable energy policies that supported local green jobs in eight U.S. states violate international trade rules. The case is a direct legacy of the Obama administration's aggressive free trade agenda, which routinely ran roughshod over environmental and climate concerns.
The WTO case was brought by India against policies in Washington, California, Connecticut, Minnesota, Montana, Massachusetts, Michigan and Delaware. Each state's policies, whether for renewable energy or fuel, included some type of preference or incentives for "local content," meaning that some aspect of the energy or fuel must be produced in that state to gain the preference. These preferences are designed to reward local businesses and ensure that new green markets for say, renewable energy, also benefit businesses in that state.
These types of programs are common throughout the U.S. and in other countries and are viewed as models to be scaled up as part of the more ambitious Green New Deal--which emphasizes both carbon reductions and the creation of fair wage jobs as part of a just transition.
India brought the case in response to an Obama administration WTO challenge to India's solar program in 2013, which was decided in favor of the U.S. in 2016. India's solar program gave preferences to Indian solar panel companies and was touted as a green jobs program and a critical part of the country's Paris climate commitment. The Obama administration argued that India's policy discriminated against U.S. solar panel manufacturers. In its defense, India pointed out that several U.S. states also have local content rules. Following the 2016 WTO ruling against India, former Citigroup executive and then-U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman issued a warning to other governments attempting to support local, green businesses: "This is an important outcome, not just as it applies to this case, but for the message it sends to other countries considering discriminatory `localization' policies."
The Obama administration's case against India's solar program came as the administration was aggressively pushing the Trans Pacific Partnership, another free trade agreement that IATP and environmental groups opposed as a boon for the fossil fuel industry and a blow to addressing climate change.
The new WTO ruling illustrates how disconnected trade rules are from national and local efforts to address climate change--and the urgent need to reform those rules. This wasn't the first time the WTO had ruled against renewable energy, green jobs programs; it made a similar ruling in 2013 against an Ontario, Canada program. There are talks at the WTO about possible changes, including a moratorium on renewable energy related cases but those reforms are a long way off. At the same time, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) deliberately chose not to address conflicts with trade rules as part of the Paris Climate Agreement--a decision that will have to be reconciled in the near future as trade and climate goals clash.
The Trump administration's approach to climate change and trade deals has been consistent with its domestic policy: Pretend it doesn't exist and follow the directions of the fossil fuel industry. Trump's New NAFTA ignores climate change, continues special corporate rights for the fossil fuel industry to pursue Mexico's valuable oil fields and sets up new mechanisms to challenge regulations. There's been a lot of talk about climate change and a Green New Deal as this Presidential election heats up, but we continue to hear very little about how we must reform trade rules to achieve our climate goals and a just transition for people.

As if his enormous tax cuts for the rich, attacks on the safety net, and efforts to help bosses steal their employees' tips weren't proof enough, President Donald Trump further demonstrated that he "does not give a crap about working people" on Thursday by telling lawmakers he is considering rejoining the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a trade pact he withdrew from last year and repeatedly derided as "terrible."
"It's a ridiculous reversal and a slap in the face to the hard-working Americans Trump promised to fight for. TPP is a lousy deal."
--Sen. Elizabeth Warren
In a statement responding to the news that Trump has directed his top economic adviser Larry Kudlow and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to examine options for reentering the 11-nation accord, Lori Wallach of Public Citizen argued that the president's move "could bring short term joy to Democratic campaign operatives" but would be yet another signal that Trump "cannot be trusted on anything."
While Republicans like Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.) were quick to celebrate the president's step toward reentering an agreement analysts have said would reward corporations at the expense of workers and the environment, progressive lawmakers and union leaders decried Trump's TPP directive as a potentially disastrous "step in the wrong direction."
"In a series of broken promises Trump made to the working people of this country, rejoining the job-killing Trans-Pacific Partnership would be the biggest yet," warned Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in a tweet on Thursday.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) also weighed in, calling Trump's move "a ridiculous reversal and a slap in the face to the hard-working Americans Trump promised to fight for."
Negotiated under a veil of strictly-enforced secrecy by the Obama administration and so-called trade advisory committees stocked with corporate representatives, the TPP was never really even about establishing conditions for "free trade," as numerous analysts have noted.
Rather, as The Intercept's Zaid Jilani argued, the pact is primarily aimed at "protecting corporate profits" by "crafting regulatory regimes that benefit certain industries."
The deal--which was signed in March by 11 Asia-Pacific nations amid fierce grassroots opposition--is particularly generous to Big Pharma, as it "expands monopoly protections and patents for various pharmaceutical drugs," Jilani observed.
Dean Baker, senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, concluded in a 2016 analysis that "the TPP is a deal about redistributing more income upward"
"It's imposing more competition on those at the middle and the bottom while maintaining and increasing forms of protectionism that benefits those at the top," Baker wrote. "The TPP is a protectionist pact for those at the top who are worried that free trade will undermine their income--like it did for those at the middle and bottom."
As Jonathan Swift once noted: "There is nothing constant in this world but inconsistency."
That's the operative motto for all things Trump, one that makes analyzing the gap between what he thinks and what he tweets much easier. Along those lines, my former boss from my Goldman Sachs days--Gary Cohn--just resigned from his White House post as chief economic adviser to the Chaos Producer in Chief. This was ostensibly in protest against the president's announcement about imposing steel and aluminum tariffs. The next day, Trump signed the order sealing that deal, citing his actions as a "matter of necessity for our security."
Along the way, he said there would be no exemptions to the tariffs, then said there would be--for Canada and Mexico. Trump glowed in the light of his new-found power grab over trade agreements, leaving himself room to decide which countries would be "in" and "out" with respect to these and other tariffs in the future. And that was the week that was in Trump World.
The timing of Cohn's departure certainly put a wrench in his plans to convene executives dependent on steel and present their case against steel tariffs to Trump. Instead, Trump signed the tariffs order flanked by steel and aluminum workers supporting it. Speaking of steel, Cohn's nerves were seemingly made of that metal. At Goldman, he was the man who regularly waded through deals without losing his cool (unlike Trump). On 9/11, I witnessed him directing traders to keep trading oil as shreds of debris and billows of smoke engulfed the windows of the Goldman trading floor, only a few blocks away from the World Trade Center.
He became president (or number two) at Goldman, continually handling the less "cool" behavior of chairman and CEO Lloyd Blankfein, who remained above him in the pecking order for decades. Cohn commanded daily activities at Goldman that led to the firm's creation of shady financial instruments that were later at the core of the financial crisis. Under Cohn, Goldman was bailed out by U.S. taxpayers. The firm morphed, for government subsidy purposes, into a bank holding company, though it handled scant deposits from regular people. It did this to retain access to Federal Reserve support, as it has done, over the past decade. Cohn was also at Goldman when it reached a $5 billion settlement with the Department of Justice over its consistent misconduct regarding mortgage-related securities from 2005 to 2007.
That type of conflict-meets-crisis readied him for his government service. When Cohn came up against Trump, the president's flavor-of-the-minute trade policy hawk, Peter Navarro, met "Globalist Gary" head on. Then Cohn's Trump administration career was over.
The financial news media didn't take Cohn's departure well. Past transgressions forgotten completely, it considered Cohn, one of the few adults in the room, another Trump appointee biting the dust, pointing to what we already know: Inconsistency is the only constant in this White House.
The Tariffs
When Trump added imported steel and aluminum to his list of already announced tariffs for solar panels and washing machines, members of his own party joined the world in expressing their disapproval. Many business sectors reliant on raw steel expressed fears that the tariffs would ultimately lead to major job losses, not gains, throughout that U.S. economy. Though the action invoked Section 232 of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act, the rest of the world knows that imported steel costs don't represent security risks, whereas the alienation of allies actually does.
As European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said: "We strongly regret this step, which appears to represent a blatant intervention to protect U.S. domestic industry and not to be based on any national security justification." He vowed that Europe would retaliate.
There were three sets of tariffs proposed by the Commerce Department, run by billionaire Wilbur Ross, and the latest, a 25 percent tariff on steel and 10 percent tariff on aluminum imports, are the harshest so far. For the president to circumvent Congress on tariffs, it must allegedly alleviate what would otherwise be a national security risk. That's just the loophole Trump used to ostensibly deliver on his campaign promises to American steelworkers. The problem is that the tariffs could wind up hurting those and other workers, as well as American consumers, instead. It would also add fuel to the fire in an already existing trade war.
Why is it already existing? Because Trump's entire isolationist posture and dogma have already caused U.S. allies and adversaries to seek tighter relationships with each other, from a currency and trade agreement perspective. The latest tariffs are another element on the path away from diplomacy (which could be better used to create agreements that truly benefit workers on all sides of our borders) and toward the street-yard bullying tactics Trump adheres to.
Reactions from around the world were of anger. China's foreign ministry called the tariffs "unreasonable and excessive" and, in true trade war style, promised that Beijing "will take necessary measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests."
Our friend to the north, Canada, one of the biggest sources of steel for the U.S., and one of biggest buyers of American steel, was equally incensed. Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland said tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum would be "absolutely unacceptable."
Even if Trump meant well (OK, a really big IF), his lack of diplomacy will ultimately render products the U.S. must import more expensive. As for American steel, any money made on extra tariffs will be lost on a reduced pool of buyers for our exported products. Domestic consumers ranging from home to bridge builders will inevitably face higher raw steel prices as a result.
Tariff Timing and Mexico's Stance Affecting NAFTA Talks
Before Trump decided to levy the tariffs, conversations between the U.S. and its NAFTA partners, Mexico and Canada, were coming along, not perfectly, but well enough. Then, the subject of the border wall resurfaced during a phone conversation between Trump and Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto. That stalemate continues. Pena Nieto reiterated that Mexico won't pay for the wall. Trump "insisted that it would." According to The Washington Post, an involved Mexican official said that the entire conversation sparked Trump's temper. Surprise, surprise. Trump's ongoing temper tantrums are a real chip at the wall of international diplomacy.
It was following that heated discourse (after which Pena Nieto canceled his trip to the U.S., the second time he has done so due to the wall dispute), Trump declared he would impose the tariffs.
Whether a negotiation technique, or a campaign promise confirmed to his base, Trump initially implied that the tariffs were aimed at China (from which the U.S. imports less than 6 percent of its steel). But they hurt Canada the most. Canada provides 16 percent of U.S. imported steel. Brazil and South Korea rank second and third. China isn't even one of America's top 10 suppliers. Worse for Canada, 75 percent of our northern friend's total steel exports go to the U.S. The tariff would cripple one of Canada's leading exports while we are trying to negotiate the "best" NAFTA deal with them.
But that's exactly what Trump wants. By dangling financial threats and then taking them away, he elevates himself to being more of a dictator, and less of a leader, of the country's trade agenda. On Monday, he tweeted that he might consider dropping the tariff on Canada and Mexico if they played ball with him on the new NAFTA agreement. Trump's notion of reciprocity at that time meant Mexico paying for a wall and Canada "treating our farmers better." Navarro, director of the White House National Trade Council, had said something different earlier that morning, but the mismatch between Trump's tweets and people trying to do their jobs in perpetual guess mode as to his decision is par for the course.
All manner of diverse voices called out the tariffs. Goldman Sachs noted that "import tariffs make the U.S. less competitive by raising the prices of raw materials."
In Hamburg, Juncker responded to Trump's announcement with: "We can also do stupid." He vowed to fight back against Trump's tariffs, noting, "This is basically a stupid process, the fact that we have to do this. But we have to do it. We will now impose tariffs on motorcycles, Harley Davidson, on blue jeans, Levis, on bourbon. We can also do stupid. We also have to be this stupid."
Trump retorted with an uppercut to the jaw. "If the E.U. wants to further increase their already massive tariffs and barriers on U.S. companies doing business there, we will simply apply a Tax on their Cars which freely pour into the U.S.," he tweeted on Saturday. "They make it impossible for our cars (and more) to sell there. Big trade imbalance!"
Perhaps, just perhaps, competition for stupid isn't in the interest of the U.S., other countries, or the workers and citizens of the world. Destroying U.S. credibility only reduces the desire of other countries to buy from the U.S., or to negotiate better terms for U.S. consumers or workers, and instead, trade more with each other.
Trade War Casualties
It's not rocket science. If it costs more to import steel, either that cost will be passed on to the end user of steel-made products and to middlemen that build things using steel, or U.S. steel manufacturers will step up to the demand that comes from less imported steel.
The part of U.S. industry that uses steel is far larger than that which supplies steel. The ratio is more than 6.5 million workers to about 140,000 in the steel industry itself. And sure, as billionaire U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross pointed out, if a Campbell's soup can uses 2.6 cents worth of steel, and if that steel cost rises by 25 percent, it adds only an extra six-tenths of one cent to the can's price.
But that math doesn't account for whether American companies can accommodate extra domestic steel demand, or whether they will also now raise steel prices--because they can. The U.S. has been behind in infrastructure surrounding the steel industry, one of the reasons U.S. steel mills have been at over, not under, capacity. Renovating mills would enable domestic steel producers to produce more steel for domestic use than raising tariffs on importing steel would.
When the Bush steel tariff was in effect in 2002, 200,000 Americans in industries requiring steel lost their jobs because of higher steel prices, versus 187,500 workers working in the steel industry. The reality is that there needs to be better infrastructure.
The Trade Deficit
Trump's use of tariffs as a means to control trade deficits comes after his first year in office, during which the overall U.S. trade deficit widened 12.1 percent to $566 billion, its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. Exports rose 5.5 percent to $2.33 trillion, while imports climbed 6.7 percent to a record $2.9 trillion. The trade gap with China increased 8.1 percent to a record $375.2 billion, and the gap with Mexico rose to $71.1 billion, the second highest on record.
According to the Department of Commerce's International Trade Administration, the U.S. is the world's largest steel importer, with U.S. imports representing about 8 percent of all steel imported globally. Part of the reason for that is not just the price of steel, but the ability of U.S. steel companies to produce it in the U.S. The top eight countries that export steel to the U.S. provide about 1 million metric tons each and make up 75 percent of U.S. steel imports. Canada, Brazil and Mexico send more than a third of their total steel exports to the U.S.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin tried to assuage fears of global trade wars at a congressional committee hearing, saying, "We are not looking to get into trade wars." He added that he was "supportive" of imposing the duties, thereby contradicting himself, taking a page out of Trump's book of bipolarity and reducing the legitimacy of anything the U.S. government says or does.
House Speaker Paul Ryan has also expressed repeated concerns about a trade war. Yet our internal dramas just serve to alienate us from the world, not obtain better overall "deals," because we are doing so from a position of increasing weakness and erratic White House behavior.
1920s Isolationism and Tariffs
U.S. history during an equally isolationist and deregulatory period shows that alienating the world doesn't help the U.S.--or the world. The Emergency Tariff Act, signed in May 1921, increased import taxes on wheat, sugar, meat, wool and other agricultural products.
The Fordney-McCumber Tariff Act, signed in September 1922, raised tariffs and extended them to industrial goods. The tariffs did encourage Americans to buy American goods. However, they did not help U.S. exports. Other countries retaliated by introducing tariffs of their own, so U.S. exports became more expensive and less popular.
In 1930, following the crash of 1929, President Hoover signed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, against, raising already high tariffs on more than 20,000 imported goods to as much as 60 percent. That set off a global trade war, causing more trading partner retaliation, and a 66 percent drop in global trade between 1929 and 1934 that deepened the Great Depression. To lower the high tariffs, President Roosevelt passed the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act in 1934.
Why Mexico Matters
Meanwhile, the seventh round of NAFTA talks between Mexico, Canada and the U.S. finished in Mexico City this week, three weeks before Mexico's' campaign season begins on March 30. Jared Kushner flew to Mexico City, having lost his security clearance and thus ability to negotiate world peace in the Middle East. Whether he had anything to do with it or not, the next day, Trump did relent, and agree to exempt Mexico and Canada from tariffs. That said, he could easily re-impose them if talk about a wall or other conversation goes against his demands.
A trade war is about more than prices in and prices out. It's about considering how those prices impact real people and jobs. It's about considering multiple trade and diplomatic relationships--not just between other countries and the U.S., but among those countries with each other.
Trump's supporters may believe that drawing a line in the sand against China that impacts Canada is good for American jobs, but the devil is in the details, and details are not Trump's forte. The reality is that America is losing its position on the world stage as a country that shows consistency in any capacity. These tariffs will inspire better trade relationships among other countries, something Trump's isolationist stance has already put in motion. They will diminish U.S. credibility, the lack of which is a product Trump has coined as his main export.
In the 1930s, U.S.-initiated trade wars contributed to a global Great Depression, one factor that lead to World War II. This time around, the rest of the world is more likely to work together and less with the U.S., not quake in economic fear of U.S. retaliation. This is clear and evidenced by the recent agreement between Japan and the EU, and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, in which Japan and China are key participants, their historical differences set aside, in efforts to forge non-U.S. trade relationships.
The U.S. remains in a precarious economic situation, as does the world, and that means Trump's trade war and nationalism, coupled with bank deregulation, could inflict more risk on depleted economies. That path would be a truly disastrous one for the U.S.
As 11 nations signed a highly-contested Pacific Rim free trade agreement in Chile on Thursday, opponents from those countries voiced their dissent in protest while progressives allies in the United States--which isn't part of the pact--admitted that although they "dodged a bullet," global solidarity against such "corporate-dominated" deals remains as important as ever.
The "cynically renamed" Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership is a revision of the TPP--which President Donald Trump withdrew from just days after taking office--and includes all of the other original signatories: Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam.
"We know from our years-long, internationally-coordinated TPP campaign that our sisters and brothers in those nations fought against the corporate-rigged TPP model as hard as we did," the U.S.-based group Public Citizen said Thursday. "We stand in solidarity with them as they continue to mobilize to block the ratification and implementation of this TPP-11 deal in their countries."
In Santiago, Chile, hundreds of people took to the streets to protest the new deal.
Protesters carried signs declaring, "No to modern slavery, no to the TPP-11" and "The TPP and TPP-11 are the same!" as they marched between the Defense Ministry and La Moneda Palace, the headquarters of the Chilean government, according to a report from the Latin American Herald Tribune. "We are going to continue fighting because it still must be approved after the vote," one activist told the outlet.
Meanwhile, in New Zealand, Newshub reports that protesters "dumped dozens of pillows, soft dog toys, and homemade rats" that featured messages such as "It's our children's future! We must protect it!" written in marker, outside of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern's Auckland office. Auckland TPP Action Group spokeswoman Chantelle Campbell said the pillows, "symbolize how the government has gone to sleep on the wider implications of the TPP."

In Christchurch, New Zealand, members from another of direct action group "stood in a wooden box cementing their feet into concrete outside Labour MP Ruth Dyson's office."
Earlier this year, when the Canadian government announced it would sign on to the new deal, it was met with notable opposition from the nation's labor unions.
Canadian Labor Congress president Hassan Yussuff noted that the pact has been widely unpopular since the negotitions in 2016, when the government consulted with laborers across Canada.
"Everywhere the government went, Canadians were clear that they opposed the deal because it would cost Canadian jobs and harm Canadian industries," Yussuff said. "It's clear that none of those issues have been resolved. This deal won't just undermine Canadian workers in its own right, but will undermine any possibility of a progressive strategy on NAFTA or any other trade deals."
While the United States, Canada, and Mexico struggle to come to a revised agreement for NAFTA, Trump on Thursday signed new tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum--despite warnings from his own cabinet that it could spark a trade war. Because the NAFTA talks are ongoing, the Trump administration has temporarily excluded its North American neighbors from the new tariffs.
In his State of the Union address, Donald Trump warned grimly of "rivals like China and Russia that challenge our interests, our economy, and our values." In response, he demanded that Congress give even more money to "our great military" and fund the growth and modernization of the U.S. nuclear arsenal, making it "so strong and so powerful that it will deter any acts of aggression by any other nation or anyone else." And yet, in a near biblical performance in his first year in office, President Trump inadvertently rolled out a love-thy-enemy set of policies that only enhanced the roles of both of those challengers, favors never imagined by the Robert Mueller Russia investigation.
It's hardly surprising, then, that last October in Beijing in his speech to the 19th congress of the Communist Party, Chinese President Xi Jinping displayed the sort of confidence that befits a true rising power on planet Earth. With remarkable chutzpah, he anointed his country the leading global force on contemporary political, economic, and environmental issues by declaring, "It is time for us to take center stage in the world and to make a greater contribution to humankind." With the unintended help of Donald Trump, he could indeed make it so.
Two months later in Washington, President Trump launched his National Security Strategy (NSS), an uninspired hodgepodge lacking in either vision or clarity. It did, however, return the U.S. to the Cold War era by identifying China and Russia as the two main challengers to its power, influence, and interests, though offering no serious thoughts about what to do on the subject (except dump more money into the Pentagon budget and the American nuclear arsenal).
In reality, many of Trump's actions, statements, and tweets in the months before the release of that document provided Beijing and Moscow with further opportunities to extend their influence and power.
On the eve of the anniversary of Trump's first year in office, for instance, a Gallup survey of 134 countries showed a startling drop -- from 48% under Barack Obama to 30% under Trump -- in global approval of Washington's role in the world. For a president who values records, that was an achievement: the worst figure since Gallup started recording them in 2007. China, on the other hand, surged to 31% and Russia to 27%. And that was before President Trump referred to various unnamed African nations as "shithole countries."
Here, then, is a list of favors that Donald Trump has done for America's latest challengers and how they have reacted on what, after almost two decades of a sole superpower global order, is once again a planet with more than one world power.
Ditching the TPP
On his first day in the Oval Office, as he had promised in his election campaign, Trump abandoned the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal. Its goal had been to tie 12 Pacific countries -- Canada to Chile, Australia to Japan -- into a complex web of trade rules that would cover approximately 40% of the global economy. Among them, tariffs would be lowered and rules established for resolving trade disputes, the granting of patents, and the protection of intellectual property. One obvious Asian power, however, wasn't included because the TPP was meant, above all, to limit China's future economic clout in the region by permanently linking the United States to East Asia. The pact was, in other words, meant to be an economic bulwark against a rising China.
President Obama had worked on the agreement for almost eight years, with House Speaker Paul Ryan and other congressional Republicans granting him fast-track authority to negotiate it. Still, he left office without submitting it for approval to Congress.
Trump's day-one act was, in fact, a triumph for China. As Michael Froman, the trade representative who negotiated the pact, put it, "After all this talk about being tough on China, for [Trump's] first action to basically hand the keys to China and say we're withdrawing from our leadership position in this region is geo-strategically damaging." Trump argued that he was protecting American workers against competition from low-wage countries like Vietnam and Malaysia which were included in the deal. But in so doing, he ignored the outstanding advantage of becoming part of a Pacific free-trade zone that excluded China, while offering the U.S. and Japan, which generate the globe's first and third highest gross domestic products, the clout that goes with such a zone.
Washington's Climate Change Leadership Abandoned
By pulling out of the 2015 Paris climate accord in June 2017, President Trump created another global leadership vacuum -- soon to be filled both by French President Emmanuel Macron and Chinese President Xi. In December 2017, on the second anniversary of the Paris climate accord and in coordination with the United Nations and the World Bank, Macron chaired a One Planet summit of more than 50 heads of state and government, as well as three mega-rich individual sponsors -- Bill Gates, Michael Bloomberg, and Richard Branson -- and assumed the leadership role ceded by Trump and his administration of climate-change deniers.
In opposition to Trump, eight American states, all invested in speeding up the use of electric vehicles, remained committed to the Paris Agreement. So, too, did a private-sector coalition called America's Pledge, which promised to honor the climate goals set in 2015. According to former New York mayor Bloomberg, that pledge group "now represents half of the U.S. economy." In this way, Trump ceded leadership on what may be the single most crucial long-term issue for humanity to the French president and China's Xi.
At the meeting, Macron, the 39-year-old former investment banker, hailed the progress made so far and insisted that it was possible to create alternatives to a fossil-fuel driven global economy by expediting the steps already taken even without the United States. He then proceeded to take a jab at the American president by awarding 18 climate scientists -- most of them U.S.-based -- multimillion-euro grants to move to France for the rest of Trump's term; that is, to a country that valued their work.
Four weeks later, the French president and his wife Brigitte flew to Beijing where they were effusively welcomed by Xi and his wife, Peng Liyuan. The Chinese president recalled that France had been the first Western power to establish diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China and that his country now stood ready to work closely with France to enhance cooperation not just on climate change but on China's expansive almost-trillion-dollar One Belt One Road initiative, an infrastructure and transportation project meant to link the vast Eurasian landmass in a great economic web whose heart would lie in Beijing. (These days, the only trillion-dollar "initiatives" out of Washington involve building up its national security state, the military, and the nuclear arsenal further.) This was the sort of global project that once would have been a natural for the U.S. No longer. Macron reacted enthusiastically, adding that "France would like to take an active part in the Belt and Road Initiative" since "the new roads cannot only go one way."
So from climate change to global economic integration, the U.S. was being left out in the cold. The way was now open for China -- which as early as September 2013 had begun taking groundbreaking action to clean its highly polluted air, in part by cutting the country's massive industrial use of coal -- as it pursued a global leadership role being ceded to it by the Trump administration.
China's One Belt One Road Initiative
By the time President Xi formally launched the One Belt One Road initiative (OBOR) in September 2013 along the centuries-old Silk Road that once connected Europe to China, the cargo train service that linked Yiwu (a center for more than 70,000 wholesale suppliers and manufacturers southeast of Shanghai) to European destinations was already a year old. Its first test run to Duisburg, Germany, had taken place four years earlier. Traveling through Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus, Poland, Germany, Belgium, France, and Spain, those freight trains took 17 days to cover about 7,700 miles, cutting in half the cost of shipping by sea (which took twice as long) and by nine-tenths the cost of airfreight (which took just three days). As the new initiative develops, it is expected that, by 2020, more than 7.5 million containers will leave cities like Yiwu for European destinations.
In short, when it comes to the economic future, Washington is losing out to Beijing. In the future, according to Chinese plans, OBOR projects will link China, Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central and Western Asia, parts of the Middle East and East Africa, and Central and Eastern Europe. It will involve the construction of oil and natural gas pipelines, highways, rail lines, deep-water ports, and power plants, among other things. Financing will significantly come from Chinese banks, joint-venture funds, and -- another major Chinese initiative -- the Asian International Investment Bank.
Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen encapsulated a widely held view when he commented that "other countries have lots of ideas but no money, but with China when it comes up with an idea, it also comes up with the money."
Last May, addressing a gathering of nearly 70 national leaders and heads of international organizations in Beijing, President Xi pledged $113 billion in extra funding for the initiative and urged countries across the globe to join hands with him on the project. "We have no intention to form a small group detrimental to stability," Xi said. "What we hope to create is a big family of harmonious coexistence." Though invited to that assembly, the United States and India stayed away. U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis caught the spirit of the American moment when he said, "In a globalized world there are many belts and roads, and no one nation should put itself in a position of dictating 'One Belt, One Road.'" But these days, the U.S. is offering neither belts nor roads to anyone.
According to The Economist, 86% of OBOR projects already underway use Chinese contractors, which allows China to employ the excess capacity it built up in steel and cement during its rapid industrialization phase. Beijing has, for instance, committed $46 billion to a China-Pakistan Economic Corridor that will involve upgrades to pipelines and highways linking western China to Pakistan's deep-water port of Gwadar on the Arabian Sea. Gwadar is less than 400 miles from the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passageway for oil tankers. That means crude oil sent from Persian Gulf ports to China will soon begin arriving on Chinese soil by pipeline after a drastically curtailed sea journey, resulting in steep savings in time and expense.
Beijing's drive to have a footprint abroad and extend the OBOR concept beyond Eurasia, particularly to Africa, has been impressive. Between 1976 and 2016, for instance, China built five major railway lines in Africa, deploying 50,000 Chinese workers to complete the 1,150-mile Tanzania-Zambia Railway. Eight more rail projects are now underway.
At the recent World Economic Forum in Davos, Chinese officials even played up a potential OBOR project linked to a climate-change-influenced future -- a "Polar Silk Road" that, according to the New York Times, "would link China to Europe and the Atlantic via a shipping route past the melting Arctic ice cap." In this context, Donald Trump's America First policies should be considered a truly "big league" bow to the rise of China.
Meanwhile, in the Middle East...
What about that other great power highlighted in the Trump National Security Strategy's return to the Cold War? Russia, a petro-state with an economy the size of Italy's, is no longer exactly the "evil empire" of the Soviet era. Still, Russian President Vladimir Putin has three strong cards in his hand: a rehabilitated, enlarged military backed by a robust defense industry; the second highest oil output in the world at a time when oil prices are climbing; and the all-purpose Rosatom State Atomic Energy Corporation which offers the nuclear industry's entire range of products and services, and runs all of Russia's 360 civilian and military nuclear facilities. Those assets are capped by Putin's 18 years in high office, which have enabled him to see the fruition of his policies in a way no American president could.
By using Russian forces to intervene in the Syrian civil war in September 2015, Putin helped turn the tide in favor of Syria's autocratic president, Bashar al-Assad. His alliance with Assad had three dimensions: Syria's historic links to the Soviet Union in the Cold War era; the Kremlin's desire to have a naval facility in the Mediterranean after the loss of such a port in Libya when Muammar Gaddafi fell in 2011; and his doctrine that any group that takes up arms against an internationally recognized government is a terrorist organization.
Having acquired a key, if brutal, role in the Syrian civil war, Putin proceeded to coopt not only Iran, a traditional ally of Syria, but also Turkey, a NATO member initially opposed to the Assad regime. Later, when Putin made a congratulatory call to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for aborting a July 2016 military coup attempt against his government, Erdogan agreed to join him in working toward a peace deal in the Syrian civil war.
Today, while the Trump administration's input in the Syrian crisis diminishes, the Kremlin's influence has become yet more dominant. Washington, which used its air power and 2,000 troops on the ground to support a Kurdish-led force of fighters in Syria against the militants of the Islamic State, now finds itself dangerously at odds with Ankara. An ardent Turkish nationalist, Erdogan considers irredentist, ethnic Kurds "terrorists" and recently sent his planes and tanks against some of them in northern Syria. Washington has been largely reduced to reacting to the Kremlin's moves in the region.
A confident Putin has been busy wooing other U.S. allies in the region. In 2016, to shore up the price of a barrel of oil, which had dropped to a dismal $30, Saudi Arabia pressed other Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) members to cut overall output. For such a strategy to succeed, however, non-OPEC oil producers needed to cooperate. Being the largest among them, Russia was the key player and Putin, as eager as the Saudis to see prices rise, agreed. A year later, when those reductions were set to expire, Riyadh argued for their extension to December 2018. Again, Putin backed the move. As a result, prices are now in the $60 range.
Unsurprisingly, King Salman became the first reigning Saudi monarch to visit Moscow last October. While there, he signed 15 cooperation agreements covering oil, military affairs (including a $3 billion arms deal involving, among other things, the purchase of Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missiles), and even space exploration. By doing so, the Saudi monarch broke the monopoly the U.S. (and other western nations) had on supplying advanced weaponry to the kingdom. Significantly, while insisting that any peace settlement in Syria should maintain that country's territorial integrity, he did not repeat his government's call for Assad to step down.
Before establishing a rapport with the Saudi monarch, Putin had also managed to attract the interest of Egypt, another long-standing ally of Washington and the recipient of more than a billion dollars in U.S. military aid annually since 1987. In October 2016, more than 500 Russian and Egyptian paratroopers even took part in joint counterterrorism exercises in the desert near Alexandria.
The flirtation between the two countries, which started in 2014 when General Abdel Fattah al Sisi visited the Kremlin, gained momentum during Sisi's second trip to Moscow six months later after being elected president. During the Trump presidency, it has only grown stronger. In 2017, Rosatom agreed to build Egypt's first nuclear power plant in El Dabaa, 80 miles northwest of Cairo, which is scheduled to cost $21 billion. Eighty-five percent of that will be provided to the cash-strapped Egyptians by Rosatom, which can afford it since its total orders last year, domestic and foreign, amounted to $300 billion.
And so it goes. Though powerful and wealthy, the United States looks ever more alone. Whether in its fruitless wars, in its remarkable focus on military power, in its dismantling of the State Department, in its urge to build walls of every kind and shut so many people out, in the president's insulting tweets, comments, and phone calls, even in the "Trump slump" in tourism, American isolationism -- that well-worn phrase -- is acquiring new meaning. While chanting his mantra of "America First," Donald Trump has so far followed policies that have only eased the way for the Chinese dragon to roar past Uncle Sam, with the Russian bear not far behind.
Go to any US city and you'll spot Americans gorging on Big Macs and Whoppers at McDonald's and Burger King. Visit Japan, and you'll see folks slurping down gyudonbeef bowls, an incredibly popular dish featuring rice, onion and fatty strips of beef simmered in sweet soy sauce. Culture, tradition and geography might divide us, but a love for fast, cheap food that's rich in beef definitely unites us.
But that growing demand for beef has immense environmental repercussions, especially regarding a stable climate - a fact not addressed by global trade agreements.
Back in January, one of Donald Trump's first actions as president was to pull the US out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TTP), a multi-country trade deal that would have ramped up commerce with Asian countries -- and opened Japan to a flood of US beef.
But Trump's move slammed the door on the US beef industry's designs for the lucrative Japanese market, the top export market for American ranchers, thanks partly to dishes like gyudon.
What lies ahead for the industry now that TPP is off the table is unclear. But no matter what transpires, environmentalists fear for the planet's future if trade deals like TPP don't start taking climate change into account, instead of encouraging more consumption, production and harm to the Earth.
Japan is hooked on beef
Japan wasn't always sold on red meat, or any meat at all. But today, you need only look at how beef-bowl outlets have conquered Asian city streets to see how that has changed. Yoshinoya, the Japanese fast-food chain, can now be found in US cities. The company only uses US beef, and this allegiance is so strong that the Yoshinoya beef bowl became a pork bowl in 2003 when Japan banned US beef imports for 20 months over fears of foot-and-mouth disease.
Japan's demand for beef doesn't look like it will slow down any time soon. Its government is looking to attract 40 million tourists every year by 2020, when it hosts the Olympics, and with tourists come a whole lot of mouths to feed. "It's pretty exciting," Philip Seng, CEO of the US Meat Exporters Federation, says. "If you have that many tourists, they're going to want to eat... We see that consumption is going to increase for the foreseeable future in Japan."
The same beef boom is playing out across Asia, with increasing wealth and disposable income driving demand in previously meat-light countries. In South Korea, a new appetite for craft burgers is just the tip of a beefy iceberg: in 2007, the US exported 25,000 tons of beef to South Korea; last year that figure reached nearly 180,000 tons.
The Chinese beef market is expected to grow by as much as 20 percent between 2017 and 2025, and is part of a wider trend toward meat eating; in 1982 the average Chinese person ate around 13 kilograms (28.6 pounds) of meat per year, and today it's around 63 kilograms (138.8 pounds). McDonald's plans to open 2,000 more restaurants across the country by 2025 -- signs that beef consumption is only going to grow.
Asia is clearly fertile ground for those looking to plunge deeper into the market.
What's the beef with beef?
While all of that growth may be good for the market and profits, beef continues to be the most climate change-intensive foodstuff in the American diet, says Sajatha Bergen, policy specialist in the Food and Agriculture Program at the National Resource Defense Council. And with the beef habit now catching on across Southeast Asia, that problem is only deepening.
But defining the range of that problem is tricky. US beef industry carbon dioxide "emissions are actually coming from a few different places," Bergen says. In the industrial production model, grain is grown to feed cattle, using chemical pesticides and fertilizers, and that requires a lot of fossil fuels. Next, the cow's digestive system turns some of what it eats into methane -- over 20 times more potent a greenhouse gas than CO2, according to scientists. And finally, cow manure is either spread or stored in lagoons, and that can produce additional methane emissions. Taking all this into account, Bergen believes that it's not unfair to describe cows as "mini-greenhouse gas factories."
Renee Vellve, a researcher at GRAIN, an international NGO, believes that we have to expand our vision to include the entire industrialized food system in order to get a true sense of just how staggeringly costly beef, and agriculture in general, is to the environment. She notes that, in addition to the obvious impacts, meat must also be packaged, refrigerated all along the supply chain, transported -- usually over long distances -- and stored in supermarket and home refrigerators.
Every step contributes to climate change, says Vellve, from fertilizing seedling crops all the way to your dinner plate. Thinking about the "food system at large," not just how the food is produced, is essential, she says: "If you isolate agriculture it's not enough."
Research by GRAIN in 2014 found that when using this comprehensive approach, our food system accounts for roughly half of all greenhouse gas emissions -- with much of that meat-related. In the US, the EPA currently estimates that agriculture contributes around 9 percent of total greenhouse gas emissions; of that, livestock takes up around 5 percent.
For Gidon Eshel, research professor of environmental physics at Bard College, New York, the direct climate impact of beef production isn't the worst of it. "Beef is responsible for the lion's share of land use [in the US]," he says. And by overusing fertilizers the industry is also responsible for the release of massive amounts of reactive nitrogen into water supplies, which can undermine water quality in lakes, rivers and estuaries. By spurring algae growth, which can in turn lower oxygen levels when bacteria feed on it, the release of nitrogen can suffocate bodies of water, creating so-called dead zones. Just this year the largest dead zone ever recorded hit the Gulf of Mexico -- a calamity tied to meat production.
The source of all this harm can be found in the industrial model of agriculture, says Ben Lilliston, director of corporate strategies and climate change at the Institute for Agricultural Trade Policy. "In many ways, it's been fairly disastrous for the environment."
The industrial system, he explains, is based on producing far more product than is needed and then exporting that product around the globe - an incredibly inefficient system. It has, however, created a global market for really cheap meat, while externalizing all the environmental costs of production to nation states and communities, Lilliston said. "Of course, we've expanded that model around the world to other countries."
Bergen agrees: "Even if we export the beef, we still keep the water pollution, the air pollution... is it really fair for US communities to bear the brunt of environmental damage?"
Enter TPP, or exit it
The Trans-Pacific Partnership, from which Trump withdrew the US after taking office, would have offered another boost for the industrial agriculture model, Lilliston said. The negotiations, which were highly influenced and dominated by big business, "facilitated a fairly serious expansion of this industrial model of agriculture where you produce way more than you need."
And that is to be expected. For decades trade deals have been designed to benefit business and make goods flow more smoothly between countries in order to open up new markets. To do this, the deals reduce tariffs (designed to protect local industries) and remove or weaken trade-limiting regulations, including public health and environmental standards.
What was really at stake for the US beef industry with TPP was deep access to Japan.
Japan used to be a "controlled market," says Seng, one that always looked after its domestic production first, at the expense of imports. That's why it's been a tough nut to crack for beef exporters like those in the US. But over time exporters have penetrated the market, to the point that today about 60 percent of Japan's beef is imported. In 2015, Japan imported nearly 500,000 tons of beef, around 200,000 tons of it from the US.
TPP would have progressively whittled tariffs on frozen beef from 38.5 percent down to 9 percent by 2032 -- a boon for the US. A report released by the US International Trade Commission prior to Trump's decision to pull out of TPP estimated the value of beef exports to be worth $876 million per year by the end of the 16-year tariff reduction period.
Trump's actions represent a "clear loss" to the industry, according to Andrew Muhammad, associate director of the USDA's Economic Research Service Market and Economics Division.
KORUS, a free-trade agreement between the US and South Korea that was signed in 2012 (which included tariff reductions and the removal of "government-imposed obstacles" to trade, according to the National Cattlemen's Beef Association) resulted in a 42 percent jump in US beef exports over a five-year period there, and an 82 percent rise in annual sales.
So it's easy to see why Trump's TPP decision wasn't popular with the US agricultural sector. With his thumbs down, expanded access to the Japanese market was put out of reach for US beef exporters.
The problem for the American cattlemen and beef processors didn't end there. Now Australia has managed to negotiate a bilateral trade agreement with Japan, gaining improved market access, while US beef still is at the mercy of high Japanese tariffs. In August, the tariffs on frozen beef from countries without economic partnership agreements with Japan were raised from 38.5 percent to 50 percent, an increase triggered by a built-in emergency system to guard against spikes in imports.
That's why the US beef industry is now desperate to thrash out a trade deal with the Japanese. "Our organization, NCBA [National Cattlemen's Beef Association], will work with [the Trump] administration on bilateral trade deals, if that's the way to go," NCBA president Craig Uden told agriculture.com. "We know that our trade partners want our product, and if we don't fill the demand, someone else will."
However, speaking from 45 years of experience working with the Japanese, Seng says it will be very difficult to get a bilateral deal that comes close to the benefits TPP would have provided. He explains that there was a "tremendous amount of political capital put on the table" by the Japanese to come down to 9 percent. This included overcoming the doubts of their own agricultural sector who feared an influx of cheap beef would damage their own market share. From Seng's viewpoint, the objective now is to figure out a way to get back into TPP.
In November, the remaining 11 member nations committed to the TPP agreement are due to restart negotiations and plow ahead without the United States. But it looks as if TPP-11, as it has been dubbed, could be tweaked only slightly to encourage the US to enter later.
Vellve isn't ruling this out. She believes that in the next three or four years the US could well join the TPP, with or without Trump in office, as the business voices calling for it are influential: "The [beef] industry is pushing very hard and is very creative at getting what it wants."
Lilliston, of the Institute for Agricultural Trade Policy, echoes this and says that TPP saw beef-producing multinational corporations, like Cargill, JBS and others, come together to form a "beef alliance" and push their agenda. "They are real forces in these trade negotiations and it's not the same as seeing things through a national agenda."
Climate change, meet trade; trade, meet climate change
But even as TPP moves forward, with or without the US, another important constituency has not been invited to the negotiating table: Nature, and the NGOs and national environmental agencies that represent her.
In a 2009 report, the World Trade Organization and the United Nations Environmental Programme said free trade agreements (FTAs) "most likely" lead to increased CO2emissions.
The "trading regime in general, and the United States led [FTAs]... are in tension with the policies for aggressive climate action," Kevin Gallagher wrote in "Trade in the Balance: Reconciling Trade Policy and Climate Change," a report released in 2016 by Boston University.
"Trade is intrinsic to the success and robustness of the industrial system" of food production, Vellve says. But trade agreements "very much drive climate change coming from the food system, insofar as the [deals] create demand for cheap commodities," she explains. For instance, an influx of cheap American beef has made it possible for gyudon chain stores like Yoshinoya to offer their beef bowls to Japanese consumers for around $3 a pop, in the same way that cheap beef has allowed McDonald's to sell its Big Macs for $4.79 in the States.
Those low prices create more consumption, demanding higher industrial production, with bigger environmental costs. But nowhere in the industrial food chain, or in global trade treaties, are allowances made for the mounting environmental harm. This is a dangerous blind spot that, ignored for long enough, is going to bite back with increased climate and weather instability, more severe heatwaves, droughts and hurricanes, rising sea levels and increased ocean acidity -- all of which will directly impact food security.
Vellve argues that to reach our climate goals, countries will need to overhaul the way our food is grown. To do so, we'll need to get rid of large-scale monocrop cultivation, big plantations and the current model of big trade.
"That's a huge shift," she acknowledges.
Vellve points to other systems of agriculture as models, like small-scale farming, that could replace industrial-sized Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations (CAFOs). This "small is better" approach would not only be less harmful from an environmental point of view, but could also be beneficial for farmers, cheaper to run and involve less labor in some cases.
But bridging the disconnect between an agribusiness industry focused on profit, global trade agreements that primarily serve business, and escalating climate change impacts, certainly won't be easy. A mention of climate change didn't even appear in the final TPP draft agreement, at the behest of Washington, despite it appearing in some initial drafts. The Paris Agreement also didn't acknowledge TPP, or any other trade deals for that matter.
"By having an [industrialized food economy] like the US - one of the biggest [carbon] polluters - say we don't care about the Paris Agreement - we're going to negotiate trade agreements as if climate change doesn't exist - that's very problematic," Lilliston says. The issue is being discussed in places like the WTO, he adds, but those people who matter, the trade negotiators, are proceeding as in the past, and acting as if environmental concerns didn't exist.
As it stands, he says, strict trade rules furnish global markets with cheap goods that can price out local producers, and those treaties deregulate in a way that almost always favors industrial farming, making it impossible for smaller-scale operations to compete.
Lilliston argues that unless we change trade agreements to nurture local and sustainable food producers, allowing them to grow and participate on a level playing field in global markets, or at least put climate-friendly policies in place, we'll soon be in a tough spot economically and environmentally.
Take drought, for example: it has deepened significantly over the US Midwest and West in recent decades, and severely impacted cattle herds and curtailed industry profits. And severe drought, like that seen in 2012, is projected to only worsen in future years as climate change escalates, further affecting the beef industry.
The good news: moves are being made by the beef sector to encourage sustainability, cut waste and decrease its climate impact. Seng at USMEF says that the beef industry is "working tenaciously to reduce any kind of greenhouse gases." Jude Capper, an agricultural sustainability consultant, suggests the US beef industry has already made advances along this road in past decades: "US beef is considerably more productive and has a lower carbon footprint per unit than in many less efficient countries," she says.
But others, like Vellve, question whether these baby steps will be nearly enough. She acknowledges the efforts of the industry, but describes that work as little more than "eye shadow".
"It's not going to get us where we need to [go, to] stay within the [emissions] targets that were set at the Paris Agreement," she says.
NRDC's Bergen agrees. There are a lot of ways to cut the environmental costs of beef production, but the rapidly rising demand for beef worldwide will negate any positive effects: "Ultimately we need to reduce the amount of beef we eat."
The decision by Donald Trump to back out of TPP has halted, at least for now, the beef industry's drive to gain Japanese market share. But what is truly needed now is not the same old type of treaty, but a new deal -- a TPP that acknowledges and addresses the deep links between industrial food production and climate change.
With the US now out of TPP, will the other 11 countries work climate change back into the agreement? It's possible, and would be a big step forward, says Lilliston, but only on one big condition: "If TPP was to include climate considerations, how does the enforcement work on that?"
It's pretty simple what needs to be done, Lilliston concludes: Future trade deals in the US, and around the world, must explicitly assure that trade and profit do not override climate policy: "That's a fairly radical idea and would be a major change in trade agreements," he says. "But at some point we are going to have to make that decision."