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By Moving to Resume Testing, Trump Threatens the Global Nuclear Balance
The decision would undermine continued strategic stability and risks triggering a disastrous arms race.
Oct 30, 2025
President Donald Trump’s October 29 announcement that the United States will restart nuclear weapons testing after more than 30 years marks a dangerous turning point in international security.
The decision lacks technical justification and appears solely driven by geopolitical posturing.
Trump’s declaration comes after months of nuclear threats. The president ordered the moving of nuclear submarines to Russia’s shores back in August and again in October 2025. Just hours before meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, Trump declared that “because of other countries testing programs, I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis.”
It is not clear what he means, since other countries are not nuclear testing, but if the US goes forward with it, such testing would end a moratorium that has been in place since 1992. There is also a question about whether he is calling for the resumption of nuclear explosive testing (conducted by the Department of Energy) or testing nuclear-capable weapons (conducted by the Pentagon).
Nevertheless the decision would threaten continued strategic stability and risks triggering a disastrous arms race.
Responding to Russia
Trump’s announcement follows Russia’s October 21 test of the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile in the Novaya Zemlya archipelago in the Arctic. According to Russia’s Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov, the missile was airborne for 15 hours and traveled 14,000 kilometers.
This context of the Russian test is crucial, but Russia did not detonate a nuclear weapon. This test, like Russia’s the test of the Poseidon nuclear-powered torpedo a week later, involved nuclear-powered delivery systems, and are considered nuclear-capable, but do not constitute a nuclear weapons test. Russia hasn’t conducted a nuclear weapons test since 1990. While these new delivery systems are worrying, they do not constitute a resumption of nuclear testing of the kind that Trump now proposes.
Resuming nuclear testing isn’t just a bargaining chip. It’s a gamble that risks undoing decades of restraint, and the world could be a lot less stable because of it.
The timing of President Trump’s announcement could not be worse for nuclear arms control. The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), the last agreement limiting US and Russian nuclear weapons, expires in February 2026. For over a decade, New START has kept a cap on deployed warheads and compelled both sides to transparency through data exchanges and inspections. If this agreement expires, there would be no binding limits on the two countries’ nuclear arsenals.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said in September 2025 that Moscow would be willing to extend New START’s quantitative limits for a year, as long as Washington reciprocates and “does not take steps that undermine or violate the existing balance of deterrence potentials.” President Trump called Putin’s proposal “a good idea.” Now, with this move to resume testing, Trump is threatening the global nuclear balance.
Russia will not take this lightly. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov warned in October 2025 that “if a country with the capability makes the erroneous decision to conduct nuclear tests, and Washington is clearly in our focus, then we will retaliate immediately.” Putin echoed the same sentiment that Moscow would respond to nuclear tests.
Signaling to China
China has been building up its nuclear arsenal, doubling from about 300 warheads in 2020 to around 600 in 2025. Beijing’s proposed 15th Five Year Plan links deterrence to “global strategic balance and stability.” However, Beijing hasn’t tested a nuclear weapon since 1996. China’s 2025 Victory Day parade rolled out five missile systems that could hit the US mainland. American analysts believe China could have over 1,000 warheads by 2030. Still, growing the arsenal and upgrading missiles isn’t the same as explosive nuclear testing.
China maintains that it won’t break its moratorium on nuclear tests and supports the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, even though it hasn’t ratified it. In October 2025, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun called China a “responsible nuclear-armed state” and reaffirmed the pledge. Now, Trump’s decision puts China in a tight spot: Stick to restraint while the US challenges international norms or initiate its own testing program to keep up.
The Need for Restraint and Diplomacy
Trump’s move looks like another round of “escalate to deescalate”: the idea that ramping up the threat forces rivals to come to the table on US terms. However, resuming nuclear testing isn’t just a bargaining chip. It’s a gamble that risks undoing decades of restraint, and the world could be a lot less stable because of it.
Bringing back nuclear weapons testing appears to be aimed at bringing Russia and China to the negotiation table for a trilateral arms control agreement, something Trump keeps pushing for. However, Beijing has argued that its nuclear stockpile is way too small to be part of any trilateral arms control deal.
If Russia and China answer with their own tests, nuclear restraint could go out the window.
Crucially, this decision runs counter to the principles of restraint and diplomacy. Instead of using America’s overwhelming advantage in conventional military power and nuclear deterrence to push for diplomatic negotiations, the administration seems set on flexing its muscles. A restraint-based foreign policy would instead focus on reducing nuclear dangers through diplomacy, maintaining the taboo against nuclear use, and building verification regimes.
The US maintains approximately 5,177 nuclear warheads, second only to Russia’s 5,459. China has just 600. Moreover, American scientists can now use advanced computer modeling to check if the bombs still work without explosive testing. So, there’s no technical reason to start testing again. Restarting nuclear tests now would almost definitely push Russia and China to do the same. Other nuclear-armed states might follow. It may also provide states that aspire to nuclear-armed status justification to develop their own nuclear weapons programs.
The test of President Trump’s “escalate to deescalate” approach will come in the months ahead. If Russia and China answer with their own tests, nuclear restraint could go out the window. What follows isn’t just another arms race. It’s something more complex, riskier, and a whole lot more dangerous than the Cold War, a competition that nearly ended humanity.
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'Extremely Dangerous for Humanity': Trump Orders Resumption of US Nuclear Weapons Testing
"By foolishly announcing his intention resume nuclear testing," said one expert, "Trump will trigger strong public opposition in Nevada, from all U.S. allies, and it could trigger a chain reaction."
Oct 30, 2025
US President Donald Trump said Wednesday that he has ordered the Pentagon to resume nuclear weapons testing, an announcement made in a frighteningly vague social media post that threatens to shred decades of global progress and heighten tensions with China and Russia.
Trump mentioned both of those nations in his post, which was published to Truth Social just ahead of the US president's meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.
"The United States has more Nuclear Weapons than any other country," Trump wrote, inaccurately. "Because of other countries testing programs, I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis."
Experts and nuclear nonproliferation advocates quickly began trying to parse Trump's statement and determine its implications for the global arms race. It's unclear from Trump's post whether he intends to resume explosive nuclear tests—the last of which was conducted underground in Nevada in 1992.
Beatrice Fihn, former executive director of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, warned that jumpstarting nuke tests would be "incredibly stupid" and pointed to the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, which the US signed but never ratified.
"This would have real, devastating impact for Americans," Fihn said of explosive nuclear testing. "It will harm, kill, and poison people. It has been estimated that past US nuclear testing killed as many Americans as its bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki did."
"Even if such nuclear tests are conducted underground, this poses a risk in terms of the possible release and venting of radioactive materials, as well as the potential leakage into groundwater."
Daryl Kimball, director of the Arms Control Association, wrote in response to the US president's post that "Trump is misinformed and out of touch."
"The U.S. has no technical, military, or political reason to resume nuclear explosive testing for the first time since 1992," wrote Kimball. "It would take least 36 months to resume contained nuclear tests underground at the former test site in Nevada."
"No country except North Korea has conducted a nuclear test explosion in this century," Kimball observed. "By foolishly announcing his intention resume nuclear testing, Trump will trigger strong public opposition in Nevada, from all U.S. allies, and it could trigger a chain reaction of nuclear testing by U.S. adversaries, and blow apart the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty."
One Nevada lawmaker, Democratic US Rep. Dina Titus, vowed following Trump's announcement to introduce "legislation to put a stop to this."
Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One after his meeting with China's president, Trump said details of the testing resumption—including the sites—would be announced at an unspecified later date. Just months ago, the US announced that it completed the assembly of the first B61-13 nuclear gravity bomb "ahead of schedule."
"We don't do testing. We've halted it years, many years ago," Trump said. "But with others doing testing, I think it's appropriate that we do also.”
Russia, which just days ago successfully tested its nuclear-capable Burevestnik cruise missile, has said it would only resume explosive nuclear testing if the US does so first.
China's Foreign Ministry, meanwhile, expressed hope that the US "will earnestly fulfill its obligations under the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty and honor its commitment to suspend nuclear testing."
Trump's social media post is sure to heighten fears of escalating nuclear tensions and potentially catastrophic global consequences.
Manpreet Sethi, a member of the Science and Security Board at the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, warned earlier this year that "the US has abdicated its role as a voice of caution" as "the risk of nuclear use continues to grow due to capabilities building up and treaties breaking down."
"It seems inclined to expand its nuclear arsenal and adopt a posture that reinforces the belief that ‘limited’ use of nuclear weapons can be managed," Sethi said just over a week after Trump's second term began. "Such misplaced confidence could have us stumble into a nuclear war."
Tilman Ruff, a board member of International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War, wrote Thursday that a resumption of US nuclear weapon testing "would be extremely dangerous for humanity."
"It would almost inevitably be followed by tit-for-tat reciprocal announcements by other nuclear-armed states, particularly Russia and China, and cement an accelerating arms race that puts us all in great jeopardy," Ruff wrote. "It would also create profound risks of radioactive fallout globally. Even if such nuclear tests are conducted underground, this poses a risk in terms of the possible release and venting of radioactive materials, as well as the potential leakage into groundwater."
"It's really an extraordinarily dangerous time in history," Ruff added.
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The Stunning Hypocrisy of US Foreign Policy
The US government regards the entire world as its legitimate sphere of influence, including the backyards of its rivals.
Oct 28, 2025
The US invaded, bombed, and sanctioned nations worldwide. It armed militias and launched regime change operations.
Prior to 9-11 the US fought proxy wars and launched coups throughout Latin America, supporting autocratic regimes. In Indonesia it helped kill about a million leftists. During the Vietnam War, it killed several million.
Since just 9-11 the US invaded or bombed Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, Serbia, Yemen, Iran, Somalia, and Niger. According to Brown University’s Costs of War project, US wars since 9-11 killed 4.5 million people and cost over $8 trillion.
The US aided war crimes in Gaza and the West Bank. The US has occupied one-third of Syria, the parts with oil, since about 2015, with help from a proxy army, the SDF. The US allied with al-Qaeda-linked extremist groups in Syria, as reported here, here, and here. It killed hundreds of thousands of Syrians through brutal sanctions. The Trump administration is now bombing Venezuelan boats and is preparing for a land invasion.
Would the US allow Russia to expand a military alliance to include Cuba and Mexico and then overthrow the government of Canada, install the new prime minister, arm anti-US militias, ban the official use of English, and station missiles and bases near US borders?
The US lied about almost all these wars and other interventions, which caused mass migrations that destabilized politics in America and the EU. The US even lied about the war in Yugoslavia, as documented in Harper’s Magazine, here, and here. In short, the Kosovo Liberation Army that the US supported was, basically, a terrorist organization funded by the CIA. Likewise, The US backed ethnic cleansing of Serbs in Croatia. US propaganda greatly overstated the nobility of the US intervention.
The US has over 750 overseas military bases. It withdrew from multiple nuclear arms treaties (ABM, INF, START II, JCPOA, and Open Skies Treaty).
According to the US Government, Russia’s and China’s Spheres of Influence Don’t Even Include Their Own Borderlands
The US is preparing for war with China over Taiwan, with massive arms buildups near China. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the US expanded NATO right up to Russia’s borders, violating multiple verbal promises given to Soviet leaders. The CIA and its sister organization, the NED, sponsored color revolutions in multiple former Soviet bloc countries. The CIA “engineered” the 2014 coup in Ukraine, according to former US Ambassador Chas W. Freeman. The US armed the Azov battalion that was killing Russian speakers in the east of Ukraine. (See also this and this.) In 2019, the RAND Corporation recommended arming Ukraine as the best way to weaken Russia; RAND predicted the actions would result in a war in which Russia would have the advantage. The New York Times and Washington Post reported on extensive CIA meddling in Ukraine since at least 2014. The New Yorker reported on CIA and National Security Agency efforts to hide what they had done in Ukraine.
Jack Matlock, former US ambassador the the USSR, said in a 2024 interview: “Why don’t we understand that trying to remove Ukraine from Russian influence and put military bases there would be, in their case, absolutely unacceptable and worthy of defense?” Matlock said the US backed the 2014 coup, and, “Obviously, to any Russian leader, not just Vladimir Putin, that would have been an absolutely impossible, hostile act, which they had to react to. And in particular, they were not going to lose their naval base in Crimea.” Finally, Matlock said the Ukrainians are “dominated in their thinking by neo-Nazis—we tend to ignore that, or when Putin points it out, we say he’s lying. He’s not lying.” And Matlock wrote: “I have been appalled that a succession of American presidents and European leaders discarded the diplomacy that ended the Cold War, abandoned the agreements that curbed the nuclear arms race, and provoked a new cold war which has now become hot.”
See this for dozens of mainstream news articles about the presence of Nazis in Ukraine and US support for them.
The US stymied peace deals both before and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Would the US allow Russia to expand a military alliance to include Cuba and Mexico and then overthrow the government of Canada, install the new prime minister, arm anti-US militias, ban the official use of English, and station missiles and bases near US borders?
See "The Ukraine Papers" for more information about the war in Ukraine.
In short, the US shares responsibility for the war in Ukraine, and it’s a grotesque lie to say that the Russian invasion was “unprovoked.” Senior US diplomats, secretaries of defense, and others warned that NATO expansion was unnecessary and provocative. Even neocon Robert Kagan says it’s wrong to call the invasion unprovoked. The neocons who run US foreign policy used the poor Ukrainians as pawns in a nasty geopolitical chess game. US policies killed hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians and Russians, devastated Ukraine’s infrastructure, damaged European economies, and diverted trillions of dollars toward military buildups.
The war in Ukraine raises the very real risk of nuclear war. As JFK warned, it’s suicidal to push a nuclear-armed adversary into the corner.
It’s time for Americans to wise up to the lies told about this war; to oppose the trillion-dollar budget for the Department of War; to demand the closing of overseas bases; to oppose the trillion-dollar expansion of the US nuclear arsenal; and to demand a stop to endless wars, proxy wars, regime change operations, and provocations. Our country is $38 trillion in debt, and we have numerous pressing needs to address domestically. We can no longer afford to be the world hegemon. We lost disastrous wars against third world countries in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Yet our leaders are picking fights with both Russia and China, which is technologically advanced and which has four times our population.
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