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The Perils and Promise of the Emerging Multipolar World
The world economy is experiencing a deep process of economic convergence, according to which regions that once lagged the West in industrialization are now making up for lost time.
Jun 06, 2024
The World Bank’s release on May 30 of its latest estimates of national output (up to the year 2022) offers an occasion to reflect on the new geopolitics. The new data underscore the shift from a U.S.-led world economy to a multipolar world economy, a reality that U.S. strategists have so far failed to recognize, accept, or admit.
The World Bank figures make clear that the economic dominance of the West is over. In 1994, the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, U.K., U.S.) constituted 45.3% of world output, compared with 18.9% of world output in the BRICS countries (Brazil, China, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Iran, Russia, South Africa, United Arab Emirates). The tables have turned. The BRICS now produce 35.2% of world output, while the G7 countries produce 29.3%.
As of 2022, the largest five economies in descending order are China, the U.S., India, Russia, and Japan. China’s GDP is around 25% larger than the U.S.’ (roughly 30% of the U.S. GDP per person but with 4.2 times the population). Three of the top five countries are in the BRICS, while two are in the G7. In 1994, the largest five were the U.S., Japan, China, Germany, and India, with three in the G7 and two in the BRICS.
Despite the new global economic realities, the U.S. security state still pursues a grand strategy of “primacy,” that is, the aspiration of the U.S. to be the dominant economic, financial, technological, and military power in every region of the world.
As the shares of world output change, so too does global power. The core U.S.-led alliance, which includes the U.S., Canada, U.K., European Union, Japan, Korea, Australia, and New Zealand, was 56% of world output in 1994, but now is only 39.5%. As a result, the U.S. global influence is waning. As a recent vivid example, when the U.S.-led group introduced economic sanctions on Russia in 2022, very few countries outside the core alliance joined. As a result, Russia had little trouble shifting its trade to countries outside the U.S.-led alliance.
The world economy is experiencing a deep process of economic convergence, according to which regions that once lagged the West in industrialization in the 19th and 20th centuries are now making up for lost time. Economic convergence actually began in the 1950s as European imperial rule in Africa and Asia came to an end. It has proceeded in waves, starting first in East Asia, then roughly 20 years later India, and for the coming 20-40 years in Africa.
These and some other regions are growing much faster than the Western economies since they have more “headroom” to boost GDP by rapidly raising education levels, boosting workers’ skills, and installing modern infrastructure, including universal access to electrification and digital platforms. The emerging economies are often able to leapfrog the richer countries with state-of-the-art infrastructure (e.g., fast intercity rail, 5G, modern airports and seaports) while the richer countries remain stuck with aging infrastructure and expensive retrofits. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook projects that the emerging and developing economies will average growth of around 4% per year in the coming five years, while the high-income countries will average less than 2% per year.
It’s not only in skills and infrastructure that convergence is occurring. Many of the emerging economies, including China, Russia, Iran, and others, are advancing rapidly in technological innovations as well, in both civilian and military technologies.
China clearly has a large lead in the manufacturing of cutting-edge technologies needed for the global energy transition, including batteries, electric vehicles, 5G, photovoltaics, wind turbines, fourth generation nuclear power, and others. China’s rapid advances in space technology, biotechnology, nanotechnology, and other technologies is similarly impressive. In response, the U.S. has made the absurd claim that China has an “overcapacity” in these cutting-edge technologies, while the obvious truth is that the U.S. has a significant under-capacity in many sectors. China’s capacity for innovation and low-cost production is underpinned by enormous R&D spending and its vast and growing labor force of scientists and engineers.
Despite the new global economic realities, the U.S. security state still pursues a grand strategy of “primacy,” that is, the aspiration of the U.S. to be the dominant economic, financial, technological, and military power in every region of the world. The U.S. is still trying to maintain primacy in Europe by surrounding Russia in the Black Sea region with NATO forces, yet Russia has resisted this militarily in both Georgia and Ukraine. The U.S. is still trying to maintain primacy in Asia by surrounding China in the South China Sea, a folly that can lead the U.S. into a disastrous war over Taiwan. The U.S. is also losing its standing in the Middle East by resisting the united call of the Arab world for recognition of Palestine as the 194th United Nations member state.
Yet primacy is certainly not possible today, and was hubristic even 30 years ago when U.S. relative power was much greater. Today, the U.S. share of world output stands at 14.8%, compared with 18.5% for China, and the U.S. share of world population is a mere 4.1%, compared with 17.8% for China.
The trend toward broad global economic convergence means that U.S. hegemony will not be replaced by Chinese hegemony. Indeed, China’s share of world output is likely to peak at around 20% during the coming decade and thereafter to decline as China’s population declines. Other parts of the world, notably including India and Africa, are likely to show a large rise in their respective shares of global output, and with that, in their geopolitical weight as well.
We are therefore entering a post-hegemonic, multipolar world. It too is fraught with challenges. It could usher in a new “tragedy of great power politics,” in which several nuclear powers compete—in vain—for hegemony. It could lead to a breakdown of fragile global rules, such as open trade under the World Trade Organization. Or, it could lead to a world in which the great powers exercise mutual tolerance, restraint, and even cooperation, in accord with the U.N. Charter, because they recognize that only such statecraft will keep the world safe in the nuclear age.
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Global Cooperation Key to Preventing 'Runaway' Climate and AI Chaos: UN Chief
"Geopolitical divides are preventing us from coming together around global solutions for global challenges," said United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres.
Jan 17, 2024
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Wednesday, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres warned that multilateralism that includes often overlooked governments in the Global South is the only solution to the rapidly developing crises posed by the climate emergency and artificial intelligence—both of which are worsening "the global crisis in trust."
"In the face of the serious, even existential threats posed by runaway climate chaos," said Guterres, "and the runaway development of artificial intelligence without guardrails, we seem powerless to act together."
While "droughts, storms, fires, and floods are pummeling countries and communities," particularly in nations that have contributed the least planet-heating fossil fuel pollution, Guterres told the political and business elite assembled in Davos, "countries remain hellbent on raising emissions."
He reserved particular scorn for the United States fossil fuel industry, which—amid the Biden administration's approval of pollution-causing infrastructure including the Willow oil project and the Mountain Valley Pipeline—deceives the public with false climate solutions, misinformation, and greenwashing campaigns "to kneecap progress and keep the oil and gas flowing indefinitely."
As suffering intensifies in communities that are most vulnerable to drought, damage from extreme weather, and other climate catastrophes, Guterres said, fossil fuel giants and powerful governments are risking lives to only delay an "inevitable" shift to renewable energy.
"The phaseout of fossil fuels is essential," said the secretary-general. "No amount of spin or scare tactics will change that. Let's hope it doesn't come too late."
As trust between the Global South and wealthy governments is frayed by fossil fuel-producing countries' refusal to leave oil, gas, and coal behind, Guterres warned that the separate threat of "unintended consequences" of artificial intelligence evolution also looms—for people in rich economies as well as developing countries.
"This technology has enormous potential for sustainable development," said the U.N. chief, while noting that "some powerful tech companies are already pursuing profits with a clear disregard for human rights, personal privacy, and social impact."
Guterres' comments came days after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released a new analysis of AI's expected impact on the global economy and workers, with nearly 40% of the labor market expected to be "exposed" to AI.
In wealthy countries, about 60% of jobs are projected to be impacted by AI, and about half of those workers are likely to see at least some of their primary tasks being completed by AI tools like ChatGPT or similar technology, "which could lower labor demand, leading to lower wages, and reduced hiring," according to the IMF. "In the most extreme cases, some of these jobs may disappear."
The analysis released Sunday noted that the rapidly changing field could worsen inequality within countries, as some higher earners may be able to "harness AI" and leverage its use for increases in their productivity and pay while those who can't fall behind.
"In most scenarios, AI will likely worsen overall inequality, a troubling trend that policymakers must proactively address to prevent the technology from further stoking social tensions," said the IMF. "It is crucial for countries to establish comprehensive social safety nets and offer retraining programs for vulnerable workers."
Guterres called on policymakers to work closely with the private sector—currently "in the lead on AI expertise and resources"—to "develop a governance model" for AI that is focused on "monitoring and mitigating future harms."
A systematic effort is also needed, said the secretary-general, "to increase access to AI so that developing economies can benefit from its enormous potential."
Along with the IMF and Guterres, global human rights group Amnesty International this week raised alarm about AI and the "urgent but difficult task" of regulating the technology, noting that in addition to changing how people and companies work, AI has the potential to be "used as a means of societal control, mass surveillance, and discrimination."
Police agencies in several countries have begun using AI for so-called "predictive policing," attempting to prevent crimes before they're committed, while officials have also deployed automated systems to detect fraud, determine who can and can't access healthcare and social assistance, as well as to monitor migrants' and refugees' movement.
Amnesty credited the European Union with making headway in regulating AI in 2023, closing out the year by reaching a landmark agreement on the AI Act, which would take steps to protect Europeans from the automation of jobs, the spread of misinformation, and national security threats.
The AI Act, however, has been criticized by rights groups over its failure to ban mass surveillance via live facial recognition tools.
"Others must learn from the E.U. process and ensure there are not loopholes for public and private sector players to circumvent regulatory obligations, and removing any exemptions for AI used within national security or law enforcement is critical to achieving this," said Amnesty.
In Davos on Wednesday, Guterres expressed hope that policymakers will agree on climate, AI, and other solutions that center human rights in the coming year, including at the U.N.'s Summit of the Future, planned for September.
"These two issues—climate and AI—are exhaustively discussed by governments, by the media, and by leaders here in Davos," said Guterres. "And yet, we have not yet an effective global strategy to deal with either. And the reason is simple. Geopolitical divides are preventing us from coming together around global solutions for global challenges."
"The only way to manage this complexity and avoid a slide into chaos," he said, "is through a reformed, inclusive, networked multilateralism."
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Stiglitz to IMF: Give Poor Nations $300 Billion a Year to Fight Climate Crisis
"As the scale of climate change impresses itself more and more on us, we are going to need bolder things," Stiglitz said at the IMF and World Bank's annual meeting in Morocco.
Oct 13, 2023
The International Monetary Fund, or IMF, should give poorer nations $300 billion a year to respond to the climate emergency, Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said.
Stiglitz outlined his recommendation in an interview with The Guardian as he attended the fund's annual meeting with the World Bank in Marrakesh, Morocco, which runs from Monday, October 9 to Sunday, October 15.
"As the scale of climate change impresses itself more and more on us, we are going to need bolder things," Stiglitz said.
"When the time comes and we are frying and somebody says: 'How do we get out of the frying pan?,' this [annual SDR allocations] is one way of doing so."
In his call, Stiglitz joined the push for the IMF to release more Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), a reserve asset that can be exchanged for cash. Wealthy nations also have the option of placing their SDRs in a fund for poorer countries.
"Basically, it is printing money," Stiglitz said. "It wouldn't be inflationary but it would be transformative."
Stiglitz' remarks came about a week after nearly 60 U.S. Democratic lawmakers sent a letter to President Joe Biden and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen asking them to support a new allocation of SDRs. The IMF issued $650 billion in SDRs in 2021 to help with the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, and the legislators wanted it to issue the same amount to help nations address the climate crisis, war, and future pandemics.
Stiglitz's call is even bolder at $300 billion a year, because the lawmakers limited themselves to an amount that the IMF could approve without a vote from Congress. While Stiglitz acknowledged his plan was ambitious and unlikely to pass through the current U.S. Congress, it was worth pushing for given the urgency of the moment.
"When the time comes and we are frying and somebody says: 'How do we get out of the frying pan?,' this [annual SDR allocations] is one way of doing so," he told The Guardian.
Stiglitz said the money should be used to help poorer nations fund their equivalent to the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act—which invested $370 billion in renewable energy. But it's impossible for less wealthy countries to make that kind of investment on their own, Stiglitz said.
"Developing countries can't do it on any scale," he told The Guardian. "Unless developing countries and emerging markets reduce their emissions, no matter what pieties we do in the U.S. and Europe, we will get global warming. The rhetoric is about doing something about climate change and then rather than getting onboard [the people] you most need to get onboard, you alienate them."
In a report published Thursday, the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) agreed that many poorer nations are not in the financial position to take ambitious climate action, and proposed more SDRs as one potential remedy. What's holding them back, CEPR said, was a large debt burden: Almost 80 low-to-middle-income countries face debt distress, and three-fourths of these are especially vulnerable to climate impacts. This creates a "vicious cycle" in which countries struggle to both service debt and respond to extreme weather events, leaving them unable to either get out of debt or recover from disasters and invest in the future.
"Most of the world is going through what many have termed a 'polycrisis,' facing down high levels of external debt, combined with interlocking crises of food insecurity, fluctuating energy prices, impacts of war, and of course, the climate crisis," report coauthor Ivana Vasic Lalovic said in a statement. "Countries are limited in what they can do to respond to the climate crisis, though, when they are forced to divert so much of their resources toward servicing their debts."
The report, titled The Growing Debt Burdens of Global South Countries: Standing in the Way of Climate and Development Goals, called on major financial institutions to address the situation by updating debt resolution frameworks, providing debt relief, financing through grants instead of loans, and allocating more SDRs.
"The international finance community needs to accept that the current dynamic, which prioritizes debt service–no matter how burdensome–over human needs and the urgency of climate crisis preparedness and response is unsustainable," coauthor Lara Merling said in a statement. "They need to step forward with solutions. Millions of lives may depend on it."
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