October, 12 2020, 12:00am EDT
WASHINGTON
With less than a month to go in the election, this past week showed that Republicans up and down the ballot are making their false claims about the Green New Deal and attacks on climate action a centerpiece of their closing argument. A review of publicly available polling data shows that these attacks, as well as attacks on Vice President Joe Biden's plan to build an equitable, clean energy future are falling flat with voters.
"Deciding to close the election with false attacks on the Green New Deal and other pro-climate action policies is a big mistake for Republicans," said Climate Power 2020 Executive Director Lori Lodes. "In reality, voters overwhelmingly support bold government action on climate and are more likely to back candidates who support it. In Trump's must-win state of Pennsylvania, for example, data shows a debate over fracking and climate change significantly boosted Biden's standing with voters. Voters see through Republicans' bizarre lies about banning cars, airplanes, and hamburgers, and they are punishing Trump and Republicans for their COVID and climate denial."
A new comprehensive analysis of the Green New Deal and pro-climate policies by Data for Progress found a plurality of voters have a favorable impression of the Green New Deal when asked directly. A plurality of voters also think the Green New Deal is a good idea. Support among Democrats for the policy is more intense than opposition among Republicans; independents are split almost evenly. As Data for Progress concluded, "the policy is not as big of a boogeyman as pundits make it out to be."
Republicans Go On the Attack on the Green New Deal; Democrats Tout Climate, Clean Energy and Conservation
In recent interviews, at events on the campaign trail, and during the presidential and vice-presidential debates, both Trump and Pence have spent considerable time leveling false and misleading attacks on the Green New Deal and other pro-climate policies. For instance, in the 90 minute vice-presidential debate, Pence mentioned the "Green New Deal" 15 times. The attacks are not limited to the top of the ticket. In recent weeks across the Senate battlefield, Republican candidates and outside groups have run anti-Green New Deal ads in Alaska, Michigan, Montana, New Mexico, Iowa, North Carolina, Maine, and Georgia.
Despite these false attacks, the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average shows Vice President Biden and Sen. Kamala Harris are currently leading in all of the following states: Pennsylvania (+7.1), Ohio (+0.6), Florida (+3.7), Wisconsin (+5.5), North Carolina (+1.4), Michigan (+6.7), Minnesota (+9.4), Iowa (+1.2), Arizona (+2.7), Nevada (+6.0), New Hampshire (+9.0), and Colorado (+10.0).
In addition, the 538 forecast currently predicts a victory for Biden and Harris in Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Minnesota, Michigan, Colorado, Maine, and Nebraska's 2nd District.
Pro-climate candidates and outside groups understand climate, clean energy, and conservation are winning issues, and they are making it a key part of their advertising and voter contact strategies in the final month across the Senate battleground.
In the fight for the Senate, 538 predicts a 68% chance of voters returning a pro-climate Democratic majority. In individual races, pro-climate Democrats remain favored to win or be competitive across the battleground. As the New York Times reported, Republicans are on defense and spending tens of millions of dollars in deep-red states such as South Carolina and Kansas.
Climate and Fracking Debate Boosts Biden in Pennsylvania, While Green New Deal Attacks Fall Short
Late August polls conducted by CBS News and Climate Power 2020 and League of Conservation Voters both show the conventional wisdom around fracking is no longer true. The Climate Power 2020 poll found that not only are Pennsylvania voters supportive of climate action and additional regulations on fracking, engaging in a debate around fracking and climate clearly helped Joe Biden, strengthening his favorability rating and increasing his lead over President Donald Trump in the state.
In that survey, Biden led Trump by a margin of 8 percentage points (50%/42%). Notably, that advantage increased to a 15-point lead when the debate was centered around fracking, clean energy, and climate change -- dispelling the conventional belief that a focus on fracking will pull down support for Democrats and Biden in the state.
The messages presented to voters in the survey closely mirror the frequent attacks leveled against Biden's plan for clean energy investments, including negative messaging on the Green New Deal and socialism, and false claims that Biden's plan will cost Pennsylvania 600,000 jobs. You can see the exact language on fracking and the Green New Deal tested in this memo.
Another key finding from the poll was that Keystone State voters, including those in Southwestern Pennsylvania, strongly support bold action on climate change, investments in clean energy infrastructure, and stronger regulations on the fracking industry. By a 61-30 margin, voters in the Pittsburgh DMA support placing stronger regulations on oil and gas fracking, such as increasing the minimum distance between fracking sites and homes and requiring the disclosure of all chemicals used in fracking.
Pennsylvania Voters also overwhelmingly favor two policies that form the foundation of Biden's climate plan:
- 74% support transitioning the country to 100% clean electricity by 2035 and 73% support a clean energy economy by 2050.
- 71% favor investing $2 trillion over the next four years to build clean energy infrastructure.
Battleground Voters Strongly Support Bold Action on Climate
Biden has pledged to achieve 100% clean electricity by 2035. Late September surveys conducted by Data for Progress found strong support for this policy in key presidential and Senate battlegrounds:
- In Arizona, 58% of likely voters, including 54% of independents, support this goal.
- In Iowa, 55% of likely voters, including 53% of independents, support this goal.
- In Maine, 65% of likely voters, including 61% of independents, support this goal.
- In South Carolina, 52% of likely voters, including 57% of independents, support this goal.
Data for Progress surveys conducted in August in Arizona, Iowa, Maine, and North Carolina also found strong support for bold action on climate.
By large margins, voters were more likely to support a candidate backing 100% clean electricity by 2035:
- Arizona: 54-26
- Iowa: 53-26
- Maine: 57-23
- North Carolina: 50-29
Similarly, voters in these battleground states were also more likely to support a candidate backing $2 trillion in clean energy infrastructure:
- Arizona: 57-26
- Iowa: 57-24
- Maine: 55-26
- North Carolina: 53-30
When Biden was named and the Republican counterattack was presented, voters still supported the Biden clean energy investment plan by substantial margins:
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Climate Power 2020 is putting the Trump administration on defense every single day for ignoring experts, refusing to believe in science, surrendering our government to big oil executives, and gutting public health protections, all at the expense of future generations. The 2020 presidential election is the defining moment for how our nation addresses the climate crisis--our leaders must be emboldened to take immediate action on climate change and to build a just and equitable economy. The time to act is now. Learn more: climatepower2020.org
LATEST NEWS
Rick Scott Pushes Amendment to GOP Budget Bill That Could Kick Millions More Off Medicaid
According to a preliminary estimate by the Democrats on the Joint Congressional Economic Committee, that number could balloon up to anywhere from 20 to 29 million if Scott's (R-Fla.) amendment passes.
The amendment will be voted on as part of the Senate's vote-a-rama, which is expected to run deep into Monday night and possibly into Tuesday morning.
"If Sen. Rick Scott's amendment gets put forward, this would be a self-inflicted healthcare crisis," said Tahra Hoops, director of economic analysis at Chamber of Progress.
The existing GOP reconciliation package contains onerous new restrictions, including new work requirements and administrative hurdles, that will make it harder for poor recipients to claim Medicaid benefits.
Scott's amendment targets funding for the program by ending the federal government's 90% cost sharing for recipients who join Medicaid after 2030. Those who enroll after that date would have their medical care reimbursed by the federal government at a lower rate of 50%.
The Affordable Care Act (ACA) introduced the increased rate in 2010 to incentivize states to expand Medicaid, allowing more people to be covered.
Scott has said his program would "grandfather" in those who had already been receiving the 90% reimbursement rate.
However, Medicaid is run through the states, which will have to spend more money to keep covering those who need the program after 2030.
The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities estimated that this provision "would shift an additional $93 billion in federal Medicaid funding to states from 2031 through 2034 on top of the cuts already in the Senate bill."
This will almost certainly result in states having to cut back, by introducing their stricter requirements or paperwork hurdles.
Additionally, nine states have "trigger laws" that are set to end the program immediately if the federal matching rate is reduced: Arizona, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Utah, and Virginia.
The Joint Congressional Economic Committee estimated Tuesday that around 2.5 million more people will lose their insurance as a result of those cuts.
If all the states with statutory Medicaid expansion ended it as a result of Scott's cuts, as many as 12.5 million could lose their insurance. Combined with the rest of the bill, that's potentially 29 million people losing health insurance coverage, the committee said.
A chart shows how many people are estimated to lose healthcare coverage with each possible version of the GOP bill.(Chart: Congressional Joint Economic Committee Democrats)
There are enough Republicans in the Senate to pass the bill with Scott's amendment. However, they can afford no more than three defections. According to Politico, Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) have signaled they will vote against the amendment.
Sen. Jim Justice (R-W.V.) also said he'd "have a hard time" voting yes on the bill if Scott's amendment passed. His state of West Virginia has the second-highest rate of people using federal medical assistance of any state in the country, behind only Mississippi.
Critics have called out Scott for lying to justify this line of cuts. In a recent Fox News appearance, Scott claimed that his new restrictions were necessary to stop Democrats who want to "give illegal aliens Medicaid benefits," even though they are not eligible for the program.
Scott's proposal has also brought renewed scrutiny to his past as a healthcare executive.
"Ironically enough, some of the claims against Scott's old hospital company revolved around exploiting Medicaid, and billing for services that patients didn't need," wrote Andrew Perez in Rolling Stone Monday.
In 2000, Scott's hospital company, HCA, was forced to pay $840 million in fines, penalties, and damages to resolve claims of unlawful billing practices in what was called the "largest government fraud settlement ever." Among the charges were that during Scott's tenure, the company overbilled Medicare and Medicaid by pretending patients were sicker than they actually were.
The company entered an additional settlement in 2003, paying out another $631 million to compensate for the money stolen from these and other government programs.
Scott himself was never criminally charged, but resigned in 1997 as the Department of Justice began to probe his company's activities. Despite the scandal, Scott not only became a U.S. senator, but is the wealthiest man in Congress, with a net worth of more than half a billion dollars.
The irony of this was not lost on Perez, who wrote: "A few decades later, Scott is now trying to extract a huge amount of money from state Medicaid funds to help finance Trump's latest round of tax cuts for the rich."
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