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Not Without Us - Organizing Our Way to Solve the Climate Crisis
Aug 28, 2017
On December 12th, 2015, when the halls of the Bourget erupted in applause with the signing of the United Nations Climate Change Accords in Paris, climate justice activists recognized a different reality.
The Paris Agreement signed by nearly 200 nations was an affirmation that national governments, despite all of the fanfare, were unable to address the roots of the climate crisis. For the international Climate Justice Movement it was yet another reinforcement of what they already knew: the only way to truly address climate crisis is to organize on a local, city and state level if we are to have any hope of real change.
"The only way to truly address climate crisis is to organize on a local, city and state level if we are to have any hope of real change."
Fast forward to the U.S. elections of 2016, the glaring shortcomings of the Paris Accord came into full view. As a filmmaker who followed seven grassroots activists as they organized to have the voices of the people heard at the COP 21, it was bittersweet news, but not without some sardonic retribution. Not that any of the activists have said it, but I have fantasized all of them standing in unison, shoulders shrugging, saying, "We told you so."
Of course, they would never gloat, because many are neck deep on the front lines of the climate crisis and all of its intertwined issues. Nnimmo Bassey of the Niger Delta faces the ravages of oil extraction on a daily basis. Pablo Solon, a former ambassador to the United Nations, who lives in the high Andes region of Bolivia, witnesses the drying of glacial lakes and currently faces trumped up charges for speaking out against injustices.
But none of the activists are shy about pointing out the shortcomings of the acclaimed agreement.
One of the key aspects glossed over by mainstream media is the fact that the entire agreement, driven largely by the United States, was voluntary and non-binding. With no fear of legal ramifications, Trump and his Cabinet of special interests were able to implement their agenda of corporate greed over scientific fact. By denouncing the findings of 99% of climate scientists that the warming of the planet is due to human activity, the U.S., and subsequently the world, bowed once again to the powerful lobbies of Big Oil.
While the COP 21 had aspirations of keeping temperature increases to 1.5 to 2 degrees centigrade, the reality of the aspirational commitments add up to over 3 degrees centigrade. It should be noted that the temperature increase is an average for the globe. For Sub-Saharan Africa it would mean a genocidal 4.5 degree centigrade increase. Aspirations will not stop the heat waves, droughts and massive migration that are sure to come with these non-binding commitments.
Perhaps nothing is more astounding than the revelation that after 21 years of negotiations, painstaking research and countless hours of technical quibbling, there is a glaring omission of two key words: fossil fuels.
No mention of fossil fuels in the entire agreement. Could it be an oversight from negotiating fatigue? Perhaps a notetaking error by scribes? There was plenty of talk about carbon offset trading schemes as well as untested and dangerous geoengineering technologies to cool the planet. But no mention of reducing the dependence on fossil fuels.
Again, Climate Justice activists were not surprised. With the big oil corporations having a dominant presence at the COP 21 Solutions Expo in the glorious Grand Palais in Paris, the hypocrisies were on full display. While touting their clean energy programs, it took activists to point out Big Oil's behind-the-scenes campaigns to block solar energy initiatives and their push for coal fired power plants and fracking throughout Europe.
These, among many other aspects of the agreement, reveal the corporate capture of the U.N. process. The activists are keen to point out that neoliberal economic policies based on infinite growth have driven developed nations to create the greatest inequality in history and at the same time are causing the destruction the planet. Their chants still ring in my ears: "System change, not climate change." It's time.
As with the making of any film, I have learned a great deal. The labyrinthine machinations of the U.N. Conference of the Parties, and their 21 year journey to achieve the Paris Accords was interesting to be sure. And like all of the activists in the film, I recognize the importance of the symbolism of nearly 200 nations agreeing that climate change is real. But how do we get to the actual change that we need?
My greatest revelation in making Not Without Us was far more personal in nature. In getting to know the activists, their personal stories, their struggles, I was most struck by their own moments of transformation. The moments that changed their lives and sent them on this path that brought them all to a cold winter in Paris, to stand up for us all, despite the horrendous terror attack in France two weeks before the climate negotiations were to begin. Their resilience to move forward and continue organizing in the face of a government crackdown on protests revealed to me that organizing for deep systemic change is not for the faint at heart.
More importantly, that the transformation that took place in all of them is possible in all of us. That we all need to find that inspiration, either from hardship, or birth from ignorance, to join the movement ourselves. To organize, get out into the streets, our town halls and into the faces of our political leaders to demand change. Our children, grandchildren and our Madre Tierra are counting on us.
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Forget Paris, Scientists Say 'Radical Change' Only Way to Stay Below 2 Degrees
Study by former IPCC chair comes amid rash of new research, all predicting the Earth will soon blow by key global warming thresholds
Sep 30, 2016
To much fanfare, global leaders have agreed to tackle the climate crisis by ratifying the Paris Climate Agreement, but a group of esteemed scientists is warning that current pledges to reduce emissions are far from sufficient and put the world on track to reaching the dangerous 2degC climate threshold by 2050.
"The pledges are not going to get even close," said Sir Robert Watson, former chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and lead author of a new report out Thursday. "If you governments of the world are really serious, you're going to have to do way, way more."
Aptly titled The Truth About Climate Change, the report, put forth by the Argentina-based Universal Ecological Fund (Fundacion Ecologica Universal FEU-US), comes amid a rash of new research, all suggesting that key global warming thresholds will be reached much more rapidly than previously thought.
Led by Watson, the team examined the climate commitments, known as Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), made by COP21 signatories. It concluded that the delayed commitment to climate action has essentially eliminated the possibility of keeping the Earth's temperature increase beneath 1.5 degrees Celsius.
The report states:
[T]he 1.5degC target has almost certainly already been missed because of the lack of action to stop the increase in global GHG emissions for the last 20 years. Global average temperature has already reached 1degC above pre-industrial times in 2015, as reported by the World Meteorological Organization. This is a significant increase, compared to the 0.85degC above pre-industrial times in 2012 reported by the IPCC. An additional warming of 0.4-0.5degC is expected as a consequence of GHGs that have already been emitted. This additional increase in global temperature is due to the slow response of the ocean-atmosphere system to the increased atmospheric concentrations of GHGs.
Global GHG emissions are not projected to decrease fast enough, even if all the pledges are fully implemented. Full implementation of the pledges will require the promised US$100 billion per year in financial assistance for developing countries to be realized. As a result, the 1.5degC target could be reached by the early 2030s and the 2degC target by 2050.
Further, the researchers minced no words when laying the blame for the missed targets on "political and sectoral interests," including those "benefiting from the use of fossil fuels," for promoting "deliberate misinformation" about the current situation.
Thursday's study, which came just one day before European leaders agreed on a fast-track, joint ratification of the Paris accord, concludes with a call for nations to "rais[e] the ambition of the INDCs" and commit to "a radical change in the way the world produces and uses energy."
Much like the landmark report published last week by fossil fuel watchdog Oil Change International, the latest findings leave no room for future emissions or new fossil fuel infrastructure projects. Even as the commitments stand, scientists predict that the U.S. will miss its target for 2025 if "fundamental changes" are not made.
In the past week, two separate reports have warned that the planet will likely pass the 1.5oC benchmark this decade and, under current emissions projections, is "locked in" to reaching a two million-year temperature record.
With 2016 on track to set another heat record, the wave of research comes as the planet reaches another grave milestone: atmospheric carbon has permanently surpassed 400 parts per million (ppm).
Author and 350.org co-founder Bill McKibben appeared on Democracy Now! on Friday. He reiterated his call for a World War II-scale mobilization to combat the global warming "siege."
"If we're going to have a chance of dealing with climate change, it means mobilizing in ways that we haven't in a very long time," he continued:
In this case, it's not that we need to go to war with climate change, it's that we're under siege. I mean, by all the measures by which one thinks about warfare, we're in one. We're losing territory all the time. I mean, there are literally islands disappearing. You know, we've lost huge swaths of the coral in the world this year alone. A wave of warm water swept across the Pacific and the Indian Ocean. In many places, 80, 90 percent of coral died in a matter of weeks, these atolls that have been there forever in the Arctic. You know, ice that's been there for millennia upon millennia is now gone. I mean, the world looks entirely different from a satellite now than it did 30 years ago.
So, the question is not whether or not we're in a conflict. The question is whether or not we're going to fight it, or whether we're going to keep listening to the Exxons of the world and do nothing.
According to the cumulative research, that's not a viable option. Watch the segment below:
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Will the Paris Climate Agreement Deliver?
Anything above 1.5 degrees Celsius is a death sentence for us and for the planet.
Apr 28, 2016
A historic event took place on Earth Day 2016. It was a decisive moment for the planet. On Friday, April 22nd around 60 heads of state gathered at the United Nations in New York for the signing of the Paris Climate Agreement. 175 governments took the first step of signing onto the deal and according to the White House at least 34 countries, representing 49% of greenhouse gas emissions have formally ratified the Paris Agreement. It was 'the largest ever single-day turn-out for a signing ceremony,' indicating 'strong international commitment to deliver on the promises.
I was at COP21 in Paris when negotiators finally agreed the Paris Agreement, the first legally binding global climate deal: the culmination of 21 years of international negotiation and United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process: a massive global political mobilization in response to the looming threat of catastrophic climate change. It scales up ambition from the previous international instrument, the Kyoto Protocol, by placing mitigation and adaptation obligations on all Parties. The Agreement includes elements of previous international agreements and follows on from the Kyoto Protocol and the shameful failure of the Copenhagen Accord. The Paris Agreement is an unprecedented evolution in both international law and climate change law. We all hope that it will be enough to save the planet.
The program for the opening ceremony included messages from civil society, a UN messenger for Peace, participation of schoolchildren and a performance by the Julliard Quintet. The ceremony itself was preceded by a high level debate on climate change and sustainability. These are perceived as hopeful signs that the Paris Agreement will be inclusive and fulfill the needs of all, including the most vulnerable. "At the ceremony Hindou Oumarou Ibrahim, an indigenous women's leader from Chad, called on countries to follow through on their promises. Temperatures in her country were already a blistering 48C (118F), she said, and climate change threatened to obliterate billions spent on development aid over recent decades."
I welcome the commitments of the Paris Agreement, which "aims... to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change, in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty... to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5degC above preindustrial levels." The agreement commits to "adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change and foster climate resilience," to "Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate resilient development," all "implemented to reflect equity and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities." These pledges are a great step forward in the race against catastrophic climate change.
I am very concerned, however, about the Agreement's provision to hold "the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 degC above pre-industrial levels." This is a dangerous equivocation. By now we all know that a 2degC target is woefully inadequate.
THE 1.5 DEGREE CELSIUS TARGET
Some critics have been skeptical about the Paris Agreement, and expressed doubts that governments have either the intention or the ability to live up to their promises -- I share their doubts. NASA climate scientist Professor James Hansen, one of the world's foremost authorities on climate change, said of the agreement, "It's a fraud really, a fake... It's just bullshit for them to say: 'We'll have a 2C warming target and then try to do a little better every five years.' It's just worthless words. There is no action, just promises.'"George Monbiot writes of the Paris Agreement, "By comparison to what it could have been, it's a miracle. By comparison to what it should have been, it's a disaster."
Scientists at MIT say that under the current Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) the global average temperature will soar by as much as 3.7 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100. This is far above the 1.5 degree Celsius target, which, as President Hollande memorably stated at the opening of COP21 in Paris, is the 'absolute ceiling' for global temperature rise if we are to prevent climate catastrophe. Anything above 1.5 degrees C is a death sentence for us and for the planet.
A new report released in the Earth Systems Dynamics Journal in April 2016 maps the different consequences between a 1.5 and a 2 degree Celsius warmer world. Unsurprisingly, the 2 degree scenario is apocalyptic: extreme weather events, water scarcity, reduced crop yields, coral reef degradation and sea-level rise. We are already well on our way to creating this future. 2014 saw record-breaking temperatures and 2015 was the hottest year on record. 2016 has already surpassed previous temperature highs: in February, the global temperature was 1.34C above the average from 1951-1980, according to Nasa data.
We have now arrived at the tipping point. There is no more time for procrastination, or half-measures. The time is now, and there is no Plan B.
POLITICAL WILL
Enforcing the Paris Agreement will need world leaders' commitment for many years to come. The agreement is vulnerable, because it is subject to the vagaries of political will, and to changes in administration. President Obama has, to date, been more committed to combating climate change than any other U.S. President in recent history, and he is a key supporter of the agreement.
What happens, it has been asked, when Obama's administration comes to its end? What if the unthinkable happens and Donald Trump takes the White House? Would Trump feel bound by the Paris Agreement and continue the US's current trajectory towards decarbonization and lowering emissions? Not bloody likely. Hopefully the US will escape the fate of a Trump administration. The only hope is that Hillary Clinton, if she becomes the next President of the U.S., will demonstrate the same, or greater commitment as President Obama has done to the Paris Agreement.
THE RENEWABLE ENERGY REVOLUTION
In order for the Paris Agreement to keep the warming of the world below the 1.5 degree Celsius target governments must commit to reducing CO2 emissions "in accordance with best available science." They must commit to halt the burning of fossil fuels, which have already formed a toxic "blanket" around the earth - they must "leave it in the ground." On April 22nd, at the signing ceremony, more than 170 countries vowed to put an end to the age of fossil fuels. These are fine words; but they will remain only words if countries don't commit to eradicating fossil fuels from our energy systems. They must embark upon a renewable energy revolution now.
The transition to renewable energy is urgent and necessary; and it is already bringing great economic benefit across the world. The International Energy Agency has forecast that renewables will produce more power than coal within 15 years. In July 2015, on a windy day, Denmark's wind farms produced between 116 and 140 percent of the national electricity requirements. Mexican energy firm TAU has saved so much through use of renewable energy, that they provide their customers with as much free electricity as they wish between 9 p.m. and 6 a.m. "A network of land-based 2.5 MW wind turbines... operating at as little as 20% of their rated capacity, could supply more than 40 times current worldwide consumption of electricity, more than 5 times total global use of energy in all forms," according to Harvard University. If solar's current rate of growth continues, its output could match world power demand in just 18 years time. Big banks like UBS and Citigroup are investing heavily in solar, a market Deutsche Bank estimates will be worth a staggering $5 trillion in 2035. 'The sun has become mainstream, and... promises to democratise energy generation,' writes Leonie Greene in the Telegraph.
CO2 emissions reductions that meet the ambition of the Paris Agreement can only be achieved if a transition occurs from fossil fuels to renewables and if the 196 countries that gathered in Paris implement what the Agreement sets out on sequestration and decarbonisation. Article 4.1 of the Agreement states that "In order to achieve the long-term temperature goal ... Parties aim to reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible ... and to undertake rapid reductions thereafter in accordance with best available science, so as to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century..."
One of the highlights of COP21 was Al Gore's speech "Impacts and Solutions to the Climate Crisis." Before a packed crowd of more than 2,000 people he sounded the death knell for fossil fuels with a sobering and powerful address, in which he championed the viability of renewable energy.
However, not everyone has seen the (solar-powered) light. Oil and gas are currently the cheapest they have been for many years and this is a dangerous incentive for energy corporations. "A critical point is that while the world's governments have signed on the dotted line, the world's companies have not... As long as fossil fuel energy is cheaper than renewables, oil gas and coal will be dispensed by the energy companies and burned by us all in vast quantities." Herbert Girardet writes in his article "COP-out in Paris," in Resurgence and Ecologist magazine, May/ June 2016. China, India and Indonesia are investing as heavily as ever in coal-powered electricity generation. Here in Great Britain, Prime Minister David Cameron has enthusiastically adopted fracking, touting it as the solution for energy independence for the UK despite the irrefutable evidence that fracking causes earthquakes, contamination of aquifers, leakage of toxic chemicals into the ground, air pollution, increased road traffic and significantly contributes to climate change. Each well drilled requires millions of litres of water, which places an immense strain on resources.
EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS
In his speech Al Gore mentioned the Weather Disasters report from the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), released a week before COP21 got underway, which details how 90% of the natural disasters during the last 20 years have been caused by extreme weather events. The report records 6,457 floods, storms, heat waves, droughts and other weather-related disasters, claiming the lives of 606,000 people, an average of some 30,000 per year, with an additional 4.1 billion people injured, left homeless or in need of emergency assistance. Gore said "This is the acceleration of the climate crisis ... It's like a nature hike through the book of Revelations."
The figures in the report for this year end in August 2015, but -- needless to say -- weather related disasters continue to ravage the world. In the whole of 2015 earthquakes, floods, heat waves and landslides left 22,773 people dead, affected 98.6 million others and caused $66.5bn (PS47bn) of economic damage. In December 2015 a powerful winter cyclone left devastation across the globe, leading to two tornado outbreaks in the United States and disastrous river flooding, driving temperatures in the North Pole up to 50 degrees above average. On 13 January this year a huge, dry electrical storm set more than 70 fires rampaging across the island of Tasmania, destroying most of the island's UNESCO world heritage site, which contained unique, ancient and irreplaceable ecosystems, including many trees that were over a thousand years old. This month devastating floods killed 53 people in Pakistan alone.
FOREST LANDSCAPE RESTORATION AND THE BONN CHALLENGE
In order to preserve the planet and combat climate change, we must preserve the forests - between now and 2020 alone, we stand to lose 1,460,000,000 acres of tropical forest and 273,750 species. We must also restore degraded, and deforested land to purpose. There are 2 billion hectares of degraded and deforested land across the world with potential for restoration. Restoration of degraded and deforested lands is not simply about planting trees. People and communities are at the heart of the restoration effort, which transforms barren or degraded areas of land into healthy, fertile working landscapes. Restored land can be put to a mosaic of uses such as agriculture, protected wildlife reserves, ecological corridors, regenerated forests, managed plantations, agroforestry systems and river or lakeside plantings to protect waterways.
The Bonn Challenge was established by the German Government and the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) at a ministerial roundtable in September 2011. It is the largest restoration initiative the world has ever seen. The objective of the Bonn Challenge was originally to restore 150 million hectares of degraded and deforested land across the world by 2020. The New York Declaration on Forests raised the Bonn Challenge ambition in September 2014 by calling for restoration of an additional 200 million hectares by 2030, bringing the total target to 350 million hectares by 2030.
Achieving the 350 million hectare by 2030 goal would result in estimates of 0.6 - 1.7 Gt CO2 sequestered per on year average, reaching 1.6 - 3.4 Gt per year in 2030 and totalling 11.8 - 33.5 Gt over the period 2011-2030. Even restoring 150 million hectares would capture 47 Gigatonnes of CO2, and reduce the emissions gap by 17%. Forest restoration is invaluable in the race to tackle climate change. That is why, in 2012, I became IUCN Ambassador for the Bonn Challenge. Not only is forest landscape restoration a critical tool against climate change, it is an issue of the most basic human rights: the right to food, shelter, clean water and sustainable livelihoods. The Bianca Jagger Human Rights Foundation (BJHRF) of which I am Founder, President and Chief Executive, is committed to forest conservation and restoration. Almost 20 million hectares have already been pledged by governments, communities and the private sector. Commitments of further 40 million hectares are being finalised.
INDIGENOUS PEOPLE'S RIGHTS
I am concerned by the lack of protection for the rights of indigenous peoples in the Paris Agreement, who have time and again been proven the best custodians of ecosystems, including forests. According to Victoria Tauli-Corpuz, UN Special Rapporteur on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, "studies over the last year have shown that indigenous peoples outperform every other owner, public or private entities on forest conservation." According to the Center for World Indigenous Peoples, it was pressure from the United States, the European Union, and Norwegian delegates at COP21 which 'caused reference to the "rights of Indigenous peoples" to be cut from the binding portion of the Paris Agreement, relegating the only mention of Indigenous rights to the purely aspirational preamble.' Megan Davis, UN Permanent Forum on Indigenous Issues Chair, said in her statement to the COP, "Sadly, the agreement asks States to merely consider their human rights obligations, rather than comply with them."
The critical role of indigenous people in combating climate change is recognised in the Paris Agreement -- but their rights are not protected. Article 7.5 of the Paris Agreement acknowledges "that adaptation action should follow a country-driven, gender-responsive, participatory and fully transparent approach, taking into consideration vulnerable groups, communities and ecosystems, and should be based on and guided by the best available science and, as appropriate, traditional knowledge, knowledge of indigenous peoples and local knowledge systems."
WOMEN
Article 7.5's language regarding women, "a gender-responsive... approach," is also weak and non-binding. It has long been established that women are disproportionately affected by climate change, especially in poorer countries. They are often most responsible for food production, household water supply and energy for heating and cooking - activities which will be seriously impacted by climate change. Yet women are often underrepresented or excluded from decision-making.
We cannot combat climate change without involving all stakeholders, including women and indigenous people, and their rights should have been at the heart of the Paris Agreement.
FINANCING
The Agreement provides $100 bn in financing to compensate poorer countries' for 'loss and damage,' mitigation and adaptation. But this is a drop in the ocean, to put it mildly. Much more financing is needed to ensure that low lying and developing countries don't pay the price for decades of reckless gas guzzling, coal burning and emissions by the richest countries.
CONCLUSION
To hold "the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 degC above pre-industrial levels" is a mockery. Much as I applaud the historic diplomatic achievements the agreement represents, the treaty contains fatal flaws that threaten us and the planet. This is the most important treaty the world has ever known; world leaders should have come away with an agreement that is bold and ambitious enough to save us from climate catastrophe. As the climate demonstrators at COP21 called out, as they assembled peacefully in the conference halls and Paris streets, as was written large on the signs they carried aloft: it is "1.5 to stay alive."
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